#AN014: Ursula von der Leyen No Confidence Motion, Market Crisis
Hello, I am Andrea Russo, a Forex trader and today I want to focus on an explosive news that has hit Brussels in the last 24 hours: the motion of no confidence against the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in carrying out this analysis.
The fact: Motion of No Confidence in the European Parliament
On July 1st, several MEPs from both conservative right and far left groups formally presented a motion of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen, accusing her of: Non-transparent agreements with Emmanuel Macron, Opaque management of the new “Pact for Europe”, Conditioning of key appointments within the Commission and the Council and above all the violation of the democratic principle of balance of powers.
Although the motion does not seem to have the numbers to pass, it represents a direct attack on the political legitimacy of the outgoing president, just when she is trying to obtain a second term.
The suspicion is that this move is not so much to bring down von der Leyen, but to: Weaken her negotiating position, Force her to make political concessions and reopen the game on the strategic EU appointments 2024–2029.
This internal crisis comes at the worst possible time. A crisis of internal legitimacy in this context can undermine institutional stability and slow down all the economic reforms expected by the markets.
Impact on Forex
1. EUR under pressure
European political risk is back in the spotlight. Even if there was no immediate shock to the euro, institutional trading rooms are already pricing in more internal instability. This translates into:
Downward pressure on EUR/USD, especially if the motion receives more votes than expected (even if it does not pass).
EUR/CHF at risk of retracement, as the Swiss franc is seen as a safe haven currency in the event of EU institutional crises.
EUR/GBP with potential loss of strength, especially if London takes advantage of the crisis to relaunch bilateral agreements.
2. Push for safe haven currencies
JPY, USD and CHF have shown anomalous movements in the last few hours: political uncertainty is pushing traders to seek safe havens. The EUR/USD futures curve also shows a slight downward revaluation.
3. Upcoming events to monitor
The real threat will be if the number of votes in favor of the no-confidence motion exceeds 30–35% of Parliament → in that case, even if the motion does not pass, von der Leyen will be delegitimized.
The euro, in this case, could undergo a technical correction extended up to 1.0650, especially if accompanied by weak macro data.
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