EURUSD trade ideas
Bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1742
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1698
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1814
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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EURO - Price can start to decline from resistance line of wedgeHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price grew to $1.1500 level and even broke it, after which started to decline in wedge.
Price declined to support line, breaking two levels, after which it turned around and started to move up.
Soon, EUR broke $1.1215 level and then rose more, after which made a correction to support line.
Then price in a short time rose to $1.1500 level, broke it one more time, and tried to grow more, but failed.
But recently it turned around and quickly rose to resistance line of wedge and now trades near.
In my mind, Euro can bounce from resistance line and fall to $1.1520 support line of wedge pattern.
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EURUSD: Short Signal Explained
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.1775
Stop Loss - 1.1822
Take Profit - 1.1670
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURUSD – A Potentially Busy Day Ahead For TradersThis morning, EURUSD recorded a near 4 year high at 1.1807, the beneficiary of improving risk sentiment, uncertainty about the ECB’s next interest rate move, and concerns about what President Trump’s tax cut bill, that is progressing through the Senate currently, could mean for the sustainability of the US debt burden moving forward.
Now, with the FX quarter end rebalancing completed yesterday, it is possible to look forward to the upcoming scheduled events for today that could influence where EURUSD moves next.
First up, at 1000 BST this morning, traders receive the latest preliminary inflation (HICP) update for the Eurozone. The outcome of this release could provide further insight into whether the current market expectation for one more ECB rate cut in 2025 is possible, or if they may be on hold for the foreseeable future.
Next up, starting at 1430 BST is a panel discussion attended by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chairman Powell, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda at the ECB’s Central Bank Forum in Portugal. The topic, “adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. The comments of these central bank heads on inflation, interest rates, tariffs and economic growth could be important for the direction of all the major G7 FX pairs.
Then, at 1500 BST the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey is due for release. While US manufacturing activity is still expected to languish in contraction territory, below 50, traders will be focused on whether there has been any improvement in the headline print, and what the prices paid component could indicate for the direction of US inflation across the remainder of 2025.
These events, when taken with real time updates from President Trump and members of this administration on his tax bill, trade deals and flexibility of the July 9th tariff deadline, sets today up as a potentially volatile period for EURUSD trading.
Technical Update: Assessing the Recent Trend
From a technical perspective, a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains in the EURUSD price and as the chart below shows, Tuesday has seen another new recovery high posted at 1.1807.
While much will continue to depend on market sentiment and price trends, it might be argued that the posting of this new price high for the current upside move, suggests a further phase of strength is still possible.
However, what are the levels traders may now be watching to gauge where the next directional price risks might lay over coming sessions?
Potential Support Levels:
Since posting the June 19th session low at 1.1446, EURUSD has rallied by over 3.00% (1.1446 to 1.1807) and while this doesn’t mean price weakness is necessarily on the cards, traders might become concerned a price correction is due after such a strong advance.
As the chart above shows, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest price strength, currently stands at 1.1668. This can mark a potential first support focus, after the recent move higher.
Closing breaks under 1.1668, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may then lead to a deeper phase of weakness towards 1.1583, which is equal to the 61.8% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
As a result of latest strength, EURUSD has traded to levels last seen in mid-September 2021 and to gauge the next potential resistance levels, we switch to the longer term weekly chart shown below.
If further price strength still emerges from current levels, traders may now be focused on 1.1909, the August 2021 failure high, as the next possible resistance level.
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EURUSD: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 1.18033 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 1.18161 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD : Up and DownLife’s a ride of highs and lows,
A dance of joy, a tide that flows.
Up we climb with laughter bright,
Down we sink in quiet night.
Mountaintop or valley deep,
Moments swift or slow to creep.
Sunlit days will surely shine,
Storms will pass—just give them time.
Up again, we spread our wings,
Chasing dreams on hopeful strings.
Down once more? That’s alright too—
Every fall makes strength feel new.
So take the highs, embrace the low,
Life’s a rhythm, ebb and flow.
Up and down, we twist, we bend,
But the journey? Worth it, friend.
Good luck.
#AN012: Early July News and Forex Impact
1. US Debt and Dollar Depreciation
The US Senate is debating an ambitious $3.3 trillion fiscal package, fuelling concerns about rising debt. The dollar has lost ground against the euro, hitting its lowest level in nearly four years.
Forex Impact: Dollar weakness favors crosses such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Possible rate speculation, with prospects of Fed cuts.
2. NATO Summit and Increased Defense Spending
At the NATO summit in The Hague, the commitment is to increase to 5% of GDP by 2035. This strengthens European government bonds and the dollar, in view of a safe-haven and new flows into the USD.
Forex Impact: Support for the USD, increased volatility on crosses linked to the euro and sterling, potential trade on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
3. Taiwan dollar appreciation
The Taiwan dollar jumped 2.5% as local insurers hedge against dollar decline.
Forex Impact: Dollar depreciation slows; Asian crosses such as USD/SGD and USD/KRW under pressure.
4. Global dollar weakness
Euro bounces above 1.17 and USD/CHF below 0.80 on weak macro data and Fed cut speculation.
Forex Impact: Open to long EUR/USD, short USD/CHF strategies, with potential carry trades.
5. Israel-Iran Ceasefire & Geopolitical Risk
Israel-Iran fighting ends, but tensions remain. Markets are monitoring the fallout on oil and safe assets.
Forex Impact: Possible increase in geopolitical volatility, with USD, JPY, CHF as a hedge; volatility on oil influences crosses that contain commodities (AUD/USD, CAD/USD).
Hi, I'm Andrea Russo, a forex trader, and today I want to talk to you about the impact of the latest global news on currency markets.
🏛️ US debt and fiscal tensions
The 3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion in the United States has weakened the dollar. This weakness fuels opportunities on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with potential upside on long positions, but beware of future Fed interventions.
⚔️ NATO towards 5% of GDP for defense
The NATO Summit in The Hague marked a paradigm shift: more defense spending means bond issuance and USD flows as a safe-haven. This supports the greenback, making European crosses volatile.
💱 Forex Asia: the case of the Taiwanese dollar
Yesterday's rise in the Taiwan dollar is a clear sign of protection against USD weakness. Unicorn to watch for those betting on emerging crosses in Asia.
💶 EUR/CHI and euro crosses recovering
EUR/USD rises above 1.17 and USD/CHF falls below 0.80: perfect timing for strategic longs. The market is discounting falling Fed rates, amplifying the momentum on the euro.
🛡️ Geopolitics: fragile truce and geopolitical risk
The truce between Israel and Iran currently limits the impact but does not eliminate the risk: safe haven assets such as USD, JPY and CHF remain under pressure for future eventualities.
🎯 Conclusion and trading opportunities
Long EUR/USD on euro momentum and USD reflux
Monitoring GBP/USD for macro sentiment
Watch out for USD/CAD, AUD/USD for oil shocks
This article was created with the support of our Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE.
Keep following me for more updates.
TiqGpt setup for todayMARKET NARRATIVE: The EUR/USD currency pair across multiple timeframes shows a consistent bullish momentum, indicating strong buying pressure. Starting from the 1D chart down to the 1m chart, there is a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting institutional accumulation and a lack of significant sell-side pressure. The 1D and 4H charts display a series of green candles with minimal wicks, indicating that the market is in a strong bullish phase with little retracement. The 1H and lower timeframes show some consolidation, but the overall structure remains bullish, suggesting that institutions are still in control of the price action.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, consistently pushing the price higher. The lack of deep pullbacks and the formation of higher lows across timeframes suggest that there is ongoing demand at higher price levels. This is indicative of a liquidity grab above the current highs, where institutions may be targeting stop losses placed by retail traders who are positioned for a reversal.
LEARNING POINT: The consistent bullish candles with minimal retracement across higher timeframes (1D, 4H) highlight a strong institutional buying phase, potentially leading to a liquidity sweep above recent highs.
SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: EUR/USD ENTRY PRICE: $1.18140 STOP LOSS: $1.17950 (below the recent minor consolidation on the 1H chart) TARGET PRICE: $1.18500 (just below the next psychological round number and potential liquidity pool) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $1.18140 after a minor retracement confirms continued buying interest. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Institutional Accumulation, Liquidity Sweep Targeting URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on the consistency of the bullish structure and lack of significant bearish counter-signals) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum)
Risk = $1.18140 - $1.17950 = $0.00190
Reward = $1.18500 - $1.18140 = $0.00360
Ratio = $0.00360 / $0.00190 = 1:1.89
Given that the risk/reward ratio is slightly below the required 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point that could provide a higher reward relative to the risk or adjust the target price if market conditions change to improve the potential reward.
EUR/USD.4h chart pattern.EUR/USD 4H chart, I can see an ascending trendline with a breakout to the upside, suggesting bullish momentum. You’ve also marked a "TARGET" zone visually on the chart.
Estimated Target:
Based on standard breakout and trend continuation principles:
Current Price: Around 1.1598
Visual Target Zone (as per your chart): Near 1.1700
Potential Target Zone:
1.1700 - 1.1720 (Approximate zone for bullish continuation if breakout holds)
Notes:
✅ Strong bullish structure confirmed by higher highs and trendline support
✅ Breakout already in motion; as long as price stays above the trendline, bullish target remains valid
✅ Watch key support at 1.1535 - 1.1500; price falling below this weakens bullish outlook
Would you like Fibonacci or measured move targets calculated more precisely? Let me know!