EURUSD ahead of NFPYesterday, the ECB cut interest rates, and EURUSD climbed to 1,1495.
Today, the U.S. jobs data (NFP) will be released.
This news comes out on the first Friday of every month at 1:30 PM London time and tends to have a significant impact on the market.
It's advisable to reduce risk on open positions and avoid rushing into new trades before the news is released.
Watch how the price reacts around key levels and whether it has the strength to continue the trend.
EURUSD trade ideas
WILL EUR CONTINUE TO RALLY AHEAD OF THE IMPORTANT NFP DATA?EUR/USD – WILL EUR CONTINUE TO RALLY AHEAD OF THE IMPORTANT NFP DATA?
📈 EUR/USD IS AT A CRITICAL POINT AHEAD OF KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Amid the ongoing pressure on the US Dollar and macroeconomic factors supporting the Euro, EUR/USD might continue its short-term bullish trend. However, key data such as US CPI and central bank meetings could determine the direction for this currency pair moving forward.
🌍 Macroeconomic Overview & Market Sentiment
USD & DXY: The US Dollar continues to weaken due to signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. DXY has fallen below the 99 level, with macroeconomic factors showing a continued bearish trend for the USD.
Eurozone: The ECB (European Central Bank) is maintaining a slightly tight monetary policy. However, the Eurozone economy is showing signs of recovery, with positive data from the region.
US Economy: Forecasts for the US labor market data could impact the USD and lead to volatility in the EUR/USD pair. All attention is on the reports from the US this week.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1 – H4 – D1)
EMA 13/34/89/200: The EMA indicators on the H1 and H4 timeframes support the current bullish trend for EUR/USD in the short term. In particular, the EMA 13 and EMA 34 are crossing above the EMA 200, signaling a strong upward trend.
Wave Structure: EUR/USD is currently in a corrective wave after testing the strong resistance level at 1.1450. A recovery signal is emerging around the support level at 1.1380, which could present a buying opportunity in the short term.
Fibonacci Expansion: The Fibonacci extension levels at 1.1470 and 1.1490 could be the next targets if EUR/USD breaks through the 1.1400 resistance zone.
⚡ Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1470, 1.1490, 1.1500
Support: 1.1380, 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1300
🧭 Trading Scenario
🔵 BUY ZONE: 1.1380 – 1.1365
SL: 1.1340
TP: 1.1420 → 1.1450 → 1.1470 → 1.1490
🔻 SELL ZONE: 1.1450 – 1.1460
SL: 1.1475
TP: 1.1420 → 1.1400 → 1.1370 → 1.1350
✅ Summary
EUR/USD is currently in a short-term bullish trend and could continue to rise if the support at 1.1365 holds. However, key economic data from the US, especially CPI and central bank meetings from the Fed and ECB, could impact the next direction for this pair. Traders should keep an eye on important support and resistance levels to identify safe trading opportunities.
EUR/USD – Bearish Setup with Potential Drop Toward 1.1285 and 1.EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion near the 1.1475 Fibonacci extension level (127.2%), with a completed five-wave impulse pattern likely followed by an ABC correction.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
A clear 5-wave Elliott structure suggests a top might be in.
Price is now losing momentum, indicating the start of a corrective move.
If selling continues, 1.12850 will be the first key level to watch.
A break below that could open the door for a deeper correction toward 1.12286.
📉 Momentum Support:
The Detrended Oscillator shows a loss of bullish momentum, aligning with the corrective structure expectation.
🔴 Invalidation:
A break back above 1.1475 would invalidate the bearish count and suggest trend continuation.
This setup favors short opportunities on breakdown confirmation with targets at the next major supports.
SHORT | EUR/USD | 1DMacro: Dollar strength likely as uncertainty grows from USD economic data; ECB expected to trim dovish tone next week.
Structure: In consolidation after reaching envelope top (~1.1494); forecasting downside to 1.1387–1.1400.
Trigger & Execution:
• Entry: Short on break below 1.1380
• Stop: 1.14678
• Target: 1.12344
• R:R: ~1:2.36
Rationale: Profit-taking above envelope top supports pullback; structural risk limit remains.
EUR/USD | Smart Money is Watching This Level |Major Drop LoadingPrice entered a major institutional sell zone (blue shaded area) and got rejected hard. Classic sign of smart money distribution.
🔻 Short Bias activated while price trades below 1.14994.
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🎯 Targets:
📉 TP1: 1.12325 – Previous structural support
📉 TP2: 1.09023 – Strong demand zone (orange area)
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🧠 Why This Matters:
This move looks like a liquidity sweep above the highs, followed by a return to premium for smart money to short. Now price is compressing under resistance – possible redistribution in play.
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🚨 High-Impact Events Coming:
3 major USD news releases are lined up around June 11.
This could be the catalyst to send EUR/USD plummeting toward demand.
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✅ Trading Plan:
🔍 Watch for a bearish confirmation pattern (e.g. break of structure + lower high)
❌ No buys in the supply zone
🛑 Stop loss: Above 1.1500 (wick trap area)
✅ Sell setup is valid below that level
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💬 Agree or Disagree?
Comment below 👇 with your view:
🔴 Bearish like me?
🟢 Or are you expecting a breakout?
📌 Don’t forget to LIKE ❤️ & FOLLOW for more institutional setups!
#EURUSD #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #ForexAnalysis #SwingTrade #BearishBias #LiquiditySweep #ForexSignals
EURUSD 1HThe second chart you've uploaded shows EUR/USD (Euro vs. US Dollar) on the 1-hour timeframe, and it suggests a bullish reversal setup. Here's a breakdown of what's happening:
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📈 Technical Analysis Summary
Chart Features:
Falling Wedge Pattern (highlighted by converging trendlines): A bullish reversal pattern.
Breakout Zone: Price has broken above the wedge previously and is now pulling back to retest the breakout zone (now support).
Current Price: ~1.13681
Target TP (Take Profit): ~1.14800 level (marked with vertical arrow and labeled zone).
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🔍 **Key Observations
EURUSD → False breakout of resistance. Correction?FX:EURUSD is strengthening amid a decline in the dollar, but the currency pair is encountering strong resistance and forming a false breakout, which could trigger a correction.
EURUSD is testing the resistance range as part of a distribution and forming a false breakout. The market structure is bullish, with the price breaking through local resistance and updating its high. The inability to continue growth and price consolidation below 1.1418 may trigger a correction. The dollar is also hitting support and may form a small correction, which will put pressure on EURUSD
Resistance levels: 1.14246, 1.1418
Support levels: 1.1384, 1.1343
If the currency pair fails to consolidate above 1.14246 during the resistance retest in order to continue its growth, then we can expect price consolidation below this level to open a short position. The correction may reach the specified support zones before continuing its growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
EUR/USD CHART PATTERN.MY EUR/USD trade setup based on the 2-hour chart pattern:
🔻 Trade Type: Short (Sell)
Entry: 1.13500
Resistance (Invalidation / Strong Resistance): 1.14140
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: 1.11300
🎯 Target 2 (Final): 1.10675
⚖️ Risk-Reward Overview
Target Reward (pips) Risk (pips) R:R Ratio
1st Target 220 64 3.44
2nd Target 282.5 64 4.41
🔹 Risk (in pips) = Resistance – Entry = 1.14140 – 1.13500 = 64 pips
🔹 Reward to 1st target = 220 pips
🔹 Reward to final target = 282.5 pips
📉 Chart Pattern Assumptions
You mentioned a 2H pattern—though you didn’t specify, based on price action this could be:
Bearish flag, double top, or rising wedge breakdown near resistance.
✅ Summary:
Excellent risk-reward profile
Tight resistance for SL
Targets are realistic if momentum shifts lower
Consider partial TP at 1.11300 and trail stop to breakeven for 1.10675
Today's EUR/USD Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD is trading at the upper end of its recent range, having hit an intraday high of around 1.1440 and remaining near that level. The US Dollar strengthened in the early session due to optimism about the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, but later declined as European stocks fluctuated. Technically, the daily chart shows bulls remain in control, with the 20-day SMA rising gently at 1.1330. In the short term, the pair is range-bound around the 20-day SMA, yet to confirm a bullish breakout, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs support the overall upward trend.
EUR/USD
buy@1.14200-1.14300
tp:1.14600-1.14900
Falling towards pullback support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1325
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1266
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1418
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !Technical Breakdown:
Rising Wedge Pattern ✅
Price was moving inside a rising channel (blue lines).
This is often a bearish reversal pattern.
Break of Structure 💥
Price broke the lower trendline + support zone — confirming potential downside momentum.
Short Entry Zone 🟪
Purple box marks a premium entry zone (Order Block / Supply Zone) — where sellers are likely positioned.
Stop Loss: 1.14781 🔺 (Above last high)
Target: Key demand zone below (highlighted in grey) 🎯
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📦 Order Flow Perspective:
Internal structure shows lower highs and lower lows forming.
Expecting price to retest lower blue trendline, then drop to fill imbalance and hit demand zone below.
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🗓️ Upcoming Events:
Watch out for USD-related news near June 10 & June 14 — it may increase volatility 📊
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🧠 Summary:
This is a classic bearish continuation setup.
Entry after pullback = higher R:R potential.
Patience and proper risk management are key 🔑
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EUR/USD Awaits ECB Decision Near 1.1400 Amid Rate Cut BetsCMCMARKETS:EURUSD FX:EURUSD EUR/USD is consolidating above the 1.1400 psychological level as markets brace for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25bps to 2.00%, marking its seventh consecutive rate cut since June 2024.
Technically, the pair continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, reflecting a broader bullish structure. Current price action is facing a minor resistance near 1.1421, which is the top of the short-term range and also a key trendline rejection zone. A clean breakout above this area could expose the monthly resistance near 1.1557.
However, if OANDA:EURUSD EUR/USD fails to breach this level initially, a pullback toward 1.1366 (channel base support) is possible before bulls regain control. The bullish setup remains valid as long as price holds above this support zone.
Traders should monitor the ECB press conference for signals on whether the central bank may pause further easing later this year.
Resistance : 1.1421 , 1.1557
Support : 1.1366 , 1.1250
EURUSD – Still a chance to rebound if support holdsEURUSD has recently pulled back slightly after approaching resistance near the rising trendline. Currently, price is heading back to retest the support zone around 1.13200 – a key confluence area with the EMA89 and previous swing lows. This is a crucial level. If it holds, there’s a strong possibility for a rebound toward the 1.14280 resistance area.
On the H4 timeframe, the price structure remains within an ascending channel with no clear signs of trend reversal. The formation of higher lows suggests that buying pressure is still present. Notably, if this week’s CPI, PPI, and NFP data come in weaker than expected, market sentiment may shift further toward the idea of an early Fed rate cut – potentially providing a lift for EURUSD.
Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions could increase risk aversion, weakening the USD and further supporting the euro.
EURUSD Interim Short Active, Looking for the LongInterim short active from our analysis posted last night, rejected off the lower end of the supply zone highlighted. Looking for the trade to trade down to a good Demand level to then take this trade up to the higher levels of the supply zone. Targeting the 1.1500 region. This will be all dependent on price action. If price moves to plan and 1.1500 is achieved we then can look for the original short position highlighted in last nights analysis.
SMC traders know what's next. Wave 5 completed — tapped into premium supply zone
💧 Liquidity swept from previous highs
🔁 Break of Structure (BoS) confirmed
⚠️ Change of Character (ChoCH) forming — bearish intent showing
🧠 Smart Money preparing distribution
📉 Price expected to mitigate into the demand zone below
🕒 Timing is everything — miss this, and you’ll regret it later