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EUR/USD 6E Futures Risk Management: Navigating Macro Divergence As Risk Manager at WaverVanir International, I’m constantly evaluating asymmetrical setups where macroeconomic divergence aligns with technical structure. The current EUR/USD trade is one such instance—an evolving case of volatility compression within a descending triangle, positioned beneath key resistance at 1.1730. 🔻 Bias: Bearish 🧮 Structure: Daily lower highs + descending triangle 📉 Key Break Level: 1.1612 (horizontal support) ⚠️ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1730 📊 Probability: 65% likelihood of downside continuation into August, driven by USD real yield strength and ECB rate path lag We’re managing this trade with dynamic risk protocols: 🔐 Option hedge overlay for tail protection 🎛️ Exposure throttle post-FOMC volatility 💡 VolanX protocol flags 1.1530 and 1.1360 as likely liquidity pools if 1.1612 gives out 🧠 Remember: It's not about being right—it's about being protected when wrong. — This post is part of our ongoing commitment to transparency, system-level discipline, and volatility-aware macro execution. #WaverVanir #VolanXProtocol #MacroTrading #RiskManagement #6EFutures #EURUSD #OptionsFlow #InstitutionalTrading #ForexStrategy
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
3-Year Euro Uptrend — An Absurdity Amid a Weak EconomyCMCMARKETS:EURUSD The euro is climbing, hitting its highest levels since late 2021 near $1.18. This surge is driven by diverging central bank policies—with the ECB holding rates steady while the Fed leans dovish—amid global tensions that push gold higher and rattle markets, weakening the dollar even though the eurozone economy remains fragile. 📉 1️⃣ Dollar Weakness Takes Center Stage Since its January 2025 peak, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen by over 11% 📉—one of its worst starts in decades, comparable to the slumps of 1986 and 1989. As inflation cools, markets are betting on Fed rate cuts, pulling U.S. Treasury yields lower. Coupled with monetary policy divergence and tariff drama, the dollar’s usual safe-haven appeal is fading, even amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. 📊 2️⃣ Fed–ECB Policy Divergence While the ECB has signaled the possibility of one or two cuts this year, markets are pricing in a milder path. By contrast, the Fed is tilting dovish, with swaps markets expecting a rate cut in September and another by December 🗓️. This widening yield differential supports EUR/USD, even though eurozone growth remains soft. ⚖️ 3️⃣ Trump Tariff Risks and Sentiment Shift Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy—especially the threat of renewed tariffs—has weighed more heavily on USD sentiment than on eurozone currencies. Markets view these tariffs as inflationary and damaging to U.S. growth prospects. Speculative positioning data confirms record bearish sentiment on the dollar, with funds underweight USD for the first time in 20 years 💼. 💶 4️⃣ Eurozone’s Fiscal Shift Germany has begun spending and borrowing, marking a dramatic pivot from years of fiscal restraint. This has raised hopes for an investment-driven recovery across the eurozone. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is avoiding signaling aggressive cuts, stabilizing market expectations and maintaining a sense of monetary calm—for now 🛡️. 🛡️ 5️⃣ Safe-Haven Flows Shifting Traditionally, geopolitical stress boosts the USD as a safe haven. This cycle is different: investors are increasingly turning to gold, the Swiss franc, and the yen as defensive assets, indirectly supporting the euro. In April, when Trump delayed tariff plans, safe-haven USD flows unwound further, fueling euro gains 💰. ⚠️ Risks Ahead for EUR/USD: 💔 Weak Eurozone Fundamentals: The eurozone economy is not booming. The IMF projects just 0.9% growth for 2025, with Germany, France, and Italy struggling to regain momentum. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review flags worsening credit conditions, weak private investment, and deteriorating balance sheets, none of which support sustained euro appreciation 📉. 🚢 A Strong Euro Hurts Exports: Eurozone exporters in machinery, chemicals, and autos are already facing squeezed margins from rising input costs and global protectionism. A stronger euro makes exports less competitive, shrinking the eurozone’s current account surplus, which dropped sharply from €50.9 billion in March to €19.8 billion in April, according to the ECB 📊. ⚡ Political Risks Looming: Fragile coalitions in Germany, budget battles in France, and rising anti-EU sentiment in Italy and the Netherlands could swiftly unwind euro gains if tensions escalate. Should the ECB turn dovish to support a weakening labor market, the euro’s rally could reverse quickly 🗳️. 📈 7️⃣ Technical Picture: Overextension Warning In addition to the macro drivers, EUR/USD is now technically overextended. The pair has already retraced exactly 78.6% of its major bearish trend that started in January 2021 and ended in September of that year. Ahead lies a strong resistance zone at 1.18000–1.20000, which will be difficult to break without a significant catalyst. Notably, the daily chart shows bearish RSI divergence, indicating fading momentum beneath the surface of this rally. A pullback toward the 1.13000 level would not be surprising, even as near-term momentum remains strong. This technical setup calls for caution while the pair tests these critical levels. 📈 Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Showing Signs of Overextension Beyond macroeconomic factors, EUR/USD is currently technically overextended. The pair has retraced exactly 78.6% of its major bearish trend that began in January 2021 and concluded in September the same year. It is now approaching the upper boundary of a 3-year ascending channel, facing a significant resistance zone between 1.18000 and 1.20000—a hurdle unlikely to be crossed without a strong catalyst. Additionally, the weekly chart reveals a bearish RSI divergence, signaling that underlying momentum is weakening despite the recent rally. Given this, a pullback toward the 1.13000 level is plausible, even as short-term momentum remains robust. This technical setup advises caution as the pair navigates these critical resistance levels.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
1
EUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless DataEUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless Data 🌐 Macro View: Dollar Regains Strength Amid Uncertainty EUR/USD remains under selling pressure as the greenback finds renewed strength following midweek weakness. The market is bracing for fresh U.S. jobless claims data, expected to show a slight rise to 235K. A print below 220K could reignite USD demand, while a surprise above 240K may offer a temporary lifeline for the euro. Amid geopolitical and economic turbulence, the euro continues to underperform as investors shift to the dollar for safety and yield advantage. 📉 Technical Outlook – MMF & Smart Money Perspective The recent breakdown below 1.1600 confirms the bearish momentum. Based on the MMF (Market Momentum Flow) methodology, price action is currently moving within a controlled distribution structure, suggesting further downside potential. Key zones identified from H1 structure: OBS + FVG High Zone (1.1662 – 1.1687): Strong supply zone + volume imbalance. 1.1637: Mid-key level and possible liquidity magnet. 1.1616 – 1.1573: Ideal area for sweeping sell-side liquidity before any sustainable bounce. If price reclaims 1.1662, intraday bullish correction may be in play. However, as long as 1.1687 holds, bears remain in control. 🧭 Trade Plan for Today 🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.1662 – 1.1687 (FVG + OBS Volume Zone) SL: 1.1710 TP: 1.1637 → 1.1616 → 1.1590 → 1.1573 ✅ Preferred entry zone aligned with high-volume imbalance & MMF rejection pattern. 🟢 BUY ZONE (Scalp Only): 1.1575 – 1.1580 (Sell-side Liquidity Zone) SL: 1.1550 TP: 1.1612 → 1.1630 → 1.1645 ⚠️ Use with caution — only upon clear price reaction at lower liquidity sweep area. 🔍 Strategy Insight This is a classic scenario of a controlled pullback within a larger bearish structure. Patience is key — let price tap into imbalanced zones before executing. Given today's U.S. data, volatility may spike during the New York session, so risk management is crucial. 💬 What’s Your Take? Do you expect EUR/USD to retest the 1.1550s zone, or could a surprise from U.S. job data flip the narrative? 👇 Drop your analysis below & follow for more MMF-based setups.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
1
EUR/USD Recovery into Resistance TestEUR/USD bears had an open door to make a run last week and, so far, they've failed. The Wednesday turn around Trump's threat to fire Jerome Powell certainly made a mark, but the question now is whether the USD can respond to support at a longer-term trendline; and, in turn, EUR/USD is now testing in the zone between 76.4 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements of the 2021-2022 major move. There's also the underside of the falling wedge pattern that's now coming in as resistance as taken from prior support. The next resistance level overhead is the 1.1748 level, which is the 78.6% retracement that had offered both resistance and support with short-term price action in the pair. - js
by FOREXcom
Educational EUR/USD Chart Breakdown – Price Action at Key LevelsEducational EUR/USD Chart Breakdown – Price Action at Key Levels This EUR/USD (1-hour) chart provides a great example of how support and resistance zones, combined with price action and indicators like Bollinger Bands, can help anticipate market moves. 🔹 Resistance Zone Tested: The pair recently approached the 1.17500–1.17800 resistance zone. This level had previously acted as a supply zone, and price once again showed rejection here, indicating selling pressure. 🔹 Bollinger Band Overextension: Notice how the price extended beyond the upper Bollinger Band—this often signals that the market is overbought in the short term, leading to a potential reversal or correction. 🔹 Bearish Reaction & Target: After rejection from resistance, the chart outlines a bearish move with a target at 1.16097. This level lies just above the next strong support zone (1.15500–1.16100), offering a realistic area for price to stabilize if the downtrend continues. 🔹 What to Learn: Support & Resistance: Prices often react at key zones; previous resistance can turn into support and vice versa. Confluence Tools: Use indicators like Bollinger Bands with price structure to increase confidence. Target Planning: Identify likely reaction zones for risk management and profit-taking. 📚 Summary This setup is a clean example of trading within a range and using technical confluence to plan entries and exits. If price breaks below 1.17130 with strong momentum, the probability increases for the market to reach the 1.16097 target.
Short
by Mentor_Michael03
EU could go up againHi traders, Last week EU continued the slowly down movement to the next bullish Daily FVG. Price rejected from there and swept the low of the rejection. After that it slowly went up again. Next week we could see price go higher for the start of the next (impulsive or corrective) wave up. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of a correction down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower time frame to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
Bearish breakout off major support?EUR/USD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a breakout of this level could lead the price to drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1587 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1666 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance. Take profit: 1.1451 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD | 4H Chart | New York Session Sellers in Play 📉 EURUSD | 4H Chart | New York Session Sellers in Play 🇺🇸 🟥 Red Zone Rejection – clarity As the New York session unfolds, sellers are stepping in at a premium supply zone — classic reaction near 1.1763–1.1812. 🔻 Current Structure: Rising wedge formation tapped into prior supply zone Price kissed the upper wedge and reacted — sellers triggering from the red zone NY session = high liquidity = aggressive positioning by institutions 🎯 Potential Bearish Targets: 1️⃣ 1.1712 – Minor structure support 2️⃣ 1.1670 – Trendline + liquidity sweep 3️⃣ 1.1582 – Major bullish invalidation (optional swing target) 🧠 Smart Money Note: This is where liquidity is grabbed before reversal Risk-to-reward favors downside short-term as long as price stays below 1.1812 📌 Bias: Tactical Short 🎯 Reaction + Rejection = Execution 🎩
Short
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD Forecast – Smart Money Setup 21st July 2025Here’s the detailed breakdown of my current EURUSD setup based on internal/external liquidity and order block reaction: 🔹 Bias: Bullish (after deeper retracement) 🧠 Breakdown: Liquidity Sweep ✅ A clear liquidity sweep took place below recent equal lows. This sweep triggered a bullish displacement, confirming demand. Market Structure Shift (MSS) 🔁 A valid MSS followed the sweep, confirming short-term reversal in structure. 4H Internal Liquidity 🫧 Price tapped into internal liquidity, setting the stage for a deeper retracement before continuation. 15 Min Order Block (OB) 🧱 Price is currently trading within a 15-minute OB zone, which aligns with minor resistance before a deeper retrace. 🔻 Anticipated Retracement: Expecting a short-term rejection from the current OB zone. Price may retrace into the 4H OB zone near 1.1590–1.1610, aligning with an upcoming 4H liquidity pool. This zone also aligns with previous mitigation and accumulation areas. 🟢 Final Target: If the 4H OB holds, I'm anticipating a bullish continuation targeting the external 4H liquidity near 1.1730+. 📌 Summary: Waiting for retracement into demand zone → looking to long from 1.1590–1.1610 area → targeting 1.1730+. ✍️ Execution Plan: Set alerts near 1.1610 Look for LTF CHoCH or BOS confirmation in demand Enter with tight stop loss below 4H OB Target external liquidity
by Ayushhhfx
EURUSD – Preparing For Potential Volatility AheadThe week ahead has all the elements to be a volatile one for EURUSD traders to navigate. First, the unwind of long positions that has been on-going throughout July, since prices hit a 4 year high at 1.1830 on July 1st may have potentially found a short-term base after rebounding last week from printing a low of 1.1556 on Thursday. More on this in the technical section below. Secondly, Bloomberg reported over the weekend that negotiations to agree a trade deal between the US and EU are proving to be more challenging than initially hoped. This leaves room for market moving headlines on this topic, or social media posts from President Trump that could influence the direction of FX markets, especially if it shifts trader expectations towards preparing for the prospect of a trade war between these two global economic heavyweights. Then on Thursday, consideration needs to be given to the ECB interest rate decision (1315 BST) and then the press conference led by ECB President Lagarde, which starts at 1345 BST. After eight consecutive rate cuts at their previous meetings, the European Central Bank are expected to take a pause to assess incoming inflation and growth data, so this outcome would probably not be a surprise. However, the comments of Madame Lagarde in the press conference could increase EURUSD volatility given that there is some uncertainty surrounding whether a further rate cut is possible either in September, or later in the year. Technical Update: Limited Price Correction or Reversal? We all know well, even if an asset is trading within a positive uptrend, periods of price weakness can materialise, before fresh buying support develops. This can lead to renewed price strength that manages to break and close above a previous high, leading to an extension of a pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows. Having been capped by the July 1st high at 1.1830, EURUSD has seen a price correction develop. Traders may be trying to decide if this is a limited move lower before fresh price strength is seen, or if it could be a price reversal, which may result in risks of a more extended phase of price weakness. Much will depend on the outcome of the risk events outlined above, as well as future market sentiment and price trends, however it is possible to assess what may be the important support and resistance levels that traders could focus on to help gauge the next direction of price activity Potential Support Levels: After a period of price strength, it can be useful to calculate Fibonacci retracements on the latest up move to identify areas of potential support. As the chart below shows, for EURUSD, the latest phase of price strength seen from 1.1065 the May 12th low up to 1.1830, the July 1st high can be used for this purpose. The 38% retracement of this advance stands at 1.1539 and after having remained intact during last week’s sell off, traders may now be watching how this support level performs on a closing basis. Breaks below 1.1539, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may then lead to a deeper phase of weakness towards 1.1446, the June 19th low, even 1.1356, which is equal to the lower 61.8% retracement level. Potential Resistance Levels: If the 38% retracement support at 1.1539 holds any future price weakness in the week ahead, a positive trending condition may still be in place, opening the possibility of EURUSD moving back to higher levels again. Any potential upside move could bring 1.1690 into play as an important resistance. This is the current level of the Bollinger mid-average, with closing breaks above this needed to open retests of 1.1830 July 1st highs, maybe further if this is in turn broken. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EUR/USD Update: Bullish Momentum Builds The euro just popped above $1.17 as optimism grows around a potential US-EU trade deal, following the recent US-Japan agreement. 📊 From a technical perspective: • The euro found support at the April high of 1.1573, rebounding sharply — a strong sign that the bull trend is still intact. 🚀 • Next resistance levels to watch: o 1.1830 – July’s high 📅 o 1.1850 – Top of a long-term channel from 2022 📈 o 1.2000 – The 200-month moving average, a major long-term target that often attracts price reaction 🔄 📌 Key takeaway: The path of least resistance remains to the upside, with momentum building toward 1.18+ in the near term. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Long
by The_STA
EURUSD Q3 | D23 | W30 | Y25📊EURUSD Q3 | D23 | W30 | Y25 Daily Forecast🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FRGNT
Short
by JCFRGNT
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1660 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1593 Why we like it: There is a multi swing low support that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1813 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EUR/USD – The Cleanest Buy Setup This Quarter Channel respecting every pivot. Liquidity beneath – Smart Money needs fuel. This is not an entry. This is a precision blueprint. 🔹 Tap into the demand zones at 1.15824 or 1.13862, and ride the next impulse to 1.19614+ Wave D correction underway. Wave E coming to steal the spotlight. 🧠 Elliott wave structure. Liquidity mapping. Channel geometry. You’re either chasing price... or anticipating it. I prefer the second. 📍Forex | Where Price Meets Purpose — #EURUSDSetup | #WaveEIncoming | #SmartMoneyMoves | #ForexBlueprint | Forex | Trading | #InstitutionalFlow | #LiquidityHunt ---
Long
by Greenfireforex