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EURUSD trade ideas

Can the Euro-Dollar Maintain Its Leadership in the FX Market?The Euro-Dollar is the best-performing major FX pair in 2025, and a short-term consolidation phase has begun below $1.18. This strength of the euro-dollar is surprising given the divergence in monetary policies. Can the euro-dollar go higher this year? How can this strength be explained fundamentally? In this week of ECB monetary policy decision (Thursday, July 24), let’s take a technical and fundamental look at the euro-dollar, which is stalling after reaching the technical resistance at $1.18. 1) Euro-Dollar’s Leadership in 2025 Defies the Logic of Monetary Policy Divergence 2025 is proving surprising in the FX market: the euro-dollar (EUR/USD) is the top-performing pair, with a gain of over 12% since the beginning of the year. This outperformance is puzzling if we rely on classic monetary fundamentals. The divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) should favor the dollar. The Fed maintains a prolonged monetary status quo with high rates due to persistent inflation and labor market tensions. In contrast, the ECB continued its rate-cutting cycle, reflecting a weaker European economy and better-contained inflation. Theoretically, this monetary asymmetry should have strengthened the dollar — yet the euro leads. This paradox is explained by a combination of fundamental factors. 2) Unexpected Fundamentals Are Driving the Euro-Dollar’s Strength in 2025 The euro-dollar’s bullish trend this year ignores the interest rate differential between the Fed and the ECB, both current and projected for the end of 2025. Here’s a summary of the bullish fundamentals that allowed the euro-dollar to overlook monetary divergence: • Trump administration’s fiscal policy raises concerns over U.S. debt sustainability (see long-term bond yields) • Trade war initiated by the Trump administration creates economic slowdown risks for U.S. companies heavily reliant on international trade • U.S. administration’s political will to improve currency competitiveness for exporters • European stocks catching up to U.S. stocks in valuation • Emerging markets’ will to diversify their public debt issuance • Euro catching up as a global reserve currency as diversification away from the U.S. dollar • Germany’s structural shift in fiscal and debt policy with massive investments in defense and industry • EU stimulus spending and the ECB’s perceived monetary policy coherence 3) Is $1.18 the Final High for the Euro-Dollar in 2025? Probably Not. The euro-dollar has been consolidating since early July after hitting $1.18. Is this the peak for the year? The answer is no — unless EUR/USD breaks below the $1.13/$1.15 support and unless institutional net positions reverse from their upward trend (see yellow line in CFTC COT data). DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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by Swissquote
EUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless DataEUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless Data 🌐 Macro View: Dollar Regains Strength Amid Uncertainty EUR/USD remains under selling pressure as the greenback finds renewed strength following midweek weakness. The market is bracing for fresh U.S. jobless claims data, expected to show a slight rise to 235K. A print below 220K could reignite USD demand, while a surprise above 240K may offer a temporary lifeline for the euro. Amid geopolitical and economic turbulence, the euro continues to underperform as investors shift to the dollar for safety and yield advantage. 📉 Technical Outlook – MMF & Smart Money Perspective The recent breakdown below 1.1600 confirms the bearish momentum. Based on the MMF (Market Momentum Flow) methodology, price action is currently moving within a controlled distribution structure, suggesting further downside potential. Key zones identified from H1 structure: OBS + FVG High Zone (1.1662 – 1.1687): Strong supply zone + volume imbalance. 1.1637: Mid-key level and possible liquidity magnet. 1.1616 – 1.1573: Ideal area for sweeping sell-side liquidity before any sustainable bounce. If price reclaims 1.1662, intraday bullish correction may be in play. However, as long as 1.1687 holds, bears remain in control. 🧭 Trade Plan for Today 🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.1662 – 1.1687 (FVG + OBS Volume Zone) SL: 1.1710 TP: 1.1637 → 1.1616 → 1.1590 → 1.1573 ✅ Preferred entry zone aligned with high-volume imbalance & MMF rejection pattern. 🟢 BUY ZONE (Scalp Only): 1.1575 – 1.1580 (Sell-side Liquidity Zone) SL: 1.1550 TP: 1.1612 → 1.1630 → 1.1645 ⚠️ Use with caution — only upon clear price reaction at lower liquidity sweep area. 🔍 Strategy Insight This is a classic scenario of a controlled pullback within a larger bearish structure. Patience is key — let price tap into imbalanced zones before executing. Given today's U.S. data, volatility may spike during the New York session, so risk management is crucial. 💬 What’s Your Take? Do you expect EUR/USD to retest the 1.1550s zone, or could a surprise from U.S. job data flip the narrative? 👇 Drop your analysis below & follow for more MMF-based setups.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
1
EURUSD Elliott Wave: Top in PlaceExecutive Summary Wave 1 rally from January 2025 to July 2025 appears complete Decline to 1.1170 and possibly 1.08 in wave 2. The support shelf near 1.1170 may contain the decline. We now have enough evidence in place to consider a medium-term (or longer) top in place for EURUSD. The weekly chart above shows a rally from the January 2025 low that reached the upper parallel at the July high. This rally appears to be complete and a sideways to lower consolidation is likely underway. On January 24, we forecasted a rally with a second target of 1.18. EURUSD reached the target topping at 1.1830. Now, it’s time to flip the scrip as a correction is likely underway to correct that strong rally. The 6-month rally in EURUSD appears to have ended this month and a correction is likely underway to 1.1170 and possibly lower levels. The top of EURUSD on July 1 is labeled as wave 1. The decline underway appears incomplete and would be wave 2. Within the wave 1, wave ((v)) measures equal to wave ((i)) at 1.1832, just a couple of pips within the actual high. Additionally, there is RSI divergence within the wave ((v)) and wave ((iii)) highs. This is a common pattern within a fifth wave of an Elliott wave impulse pattern. The next trend (lower) will likely carry to below 1.1170. Near this level is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the 6-month rally. Additionally, there is a support shelf of broken resistance and congestion appearing between 1.1033 - 1.1275. At the lower end of that price zone is a broken trend line dating back to 2023. Therefore, this price zone will offer up a strong level of support that may launch the next rally or at least a small bounce. BOTTOM LINE The Elliott wave impulse pattern from January to July 2025 appears over. A downward correction appears to have begun and may visit 1.1170 and possibly lower levels. As the downward trend takes hold, we’ll review its structure to determine where we are at within the larger wave sequence.
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
EURUSD major resistance breakout bullish strong Readmore...📊EURUSD Analysis – 1H Timeframe EURUSD has broken out of the descending channel with strength, shifting structure and showing clear bullish intent 📌 Breakout Confirmed: ✅ Major resistance at 1.16900 broken with strong momentum — now acting as support Buy position activated from the 1.16900 breakout level 🎯 Next Resistance Targets / Supply Zones: 🔹 1.17200 🔹 1.17500 🔹 1.17600 Watching for reaction at these levels — trend continuation likely as long as structure holds 🧠Always follow your trading plan and risk rules — markets don’t promise, they move! What’s your take on EURUSD’s breakout? Drop your thoughts below #eurusd 👋Regards from expert Team
Long
by experttrader04
1
EURUSD and Elliott Wave PrinciplesWe are currently on a Wave 5 that started when Wave 4(Red) completed. This 5th Wave expresses itself in 5 waves that are shown in Black. Our Wave 2 was a Zigzag and and we should expect a Flat correction for our Wave 4. When Wave 3 is complete an A Wave retests on the 261.8% Fib. level. Wave B goes beyond the end of Wave 3 and retests the confirms at the 423.6% Fib. level. This indicates the end of Wave B and the start of Wave C of the Flat, hence our Wave 4.
Short
by machariavictor017
27
Euro may fall to support area and then start to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. The price previously moved inside a wedge formation, where it tested the buyer zone and showed a strong reaction from this area. After that, the pair broke out upward and started to trade inside an upward channel, building momentum and forming a clear bullish structure. Later, the price created a pennant pattern, often considered a continuation signal. But before continuing the upward trend, I expect the Euro to first exit from the pennant and decline toward the support area. This zone was previously resistantce, and now it may turn into a strong support. Now the price is trading near the pennant resistance, but I don’t expect a breakout right away. The market needs to correct before it resumes the uptrend. Once the price reaches the current support level or slightly lower, it may find demand again and bounce. That’s why I expect the Euro to retest the support zone and then grow further toward TP 1 - 1.1850 points. This target aligns with the upper border of the upward channel and would complete the continuation move after the pennant breakout. Given the previous structure, bullish momentum, and patterns on the chart, I remain bullish after the correction and expect the price to rise from the support zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by LegionQ8
26
EUR/USD - Wedge Breakout (CPI- Today) 15.07.2025 The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.1741 2nd Resistance – 1.1766 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
35
Short Term Market Reversal IncomingRetail’s still buying breakouts, but the music just stopped. This was the rally they weren’t supposed to catch. Now it’s time to flip the script and bleed it back to origin. Trading is a very difficult profession. Most people fail, but it's also not impossible. If you don't trade you're a loser. It's a zero-sum game. 0 1 Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competing entities, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. It's all just digits on a screen and if they want your money they'll take your money, so you gotta respect your risk management if you don't want to lose everything or you'll have to break the matrix by seeing into the future, Once you get to see the future. THERE IS NO TURNING BACK. If you're reading this I hope you're having a great year. This year is all about endings and new beginnings. So stay locked in. WAGMI Oh yeah don't forget I gave you guys FX_IDC:EURUSD at 1.03 and FX_IDC:XAGUSD at $22 Nerds
Short
by Orgest
EUR/USD Weekly AMD Breakdown | VolanX Protocol Signal 🧠 EUR/USD Weekly AMD Breakdown | VolanX Protocol Signals Distribution Phase Active 📍 EUR/USD | 1W Chart 📅 July 17, 2025 🧭 Structured by: WaverVanir International LLC 🔗 Powered by VolanX Protocol + DSS Architecture 🧨 Strategic Context: This isn’t a random retracement—it’s the completion of a full AMD cycle (Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution), and EUR/USD just exited the manipulation high, confirming the start of a long-term markdown phase. 🧠 Pattern Alignment: ✅ Green Box = Accumulation Zone (Rangebound 2023–early 2025) 🔶 Orange Box = Manipulation Trap (Spring sweep + emotional lows) ⚠️ Grey Box = Distribution (Fast repricing into liquidity pockets) 🔻 Red Line = Markdown begins Embedded schematic confirms the AMD logic. This is how institutions engineer macro turns. 📉 VolanX Bearish Targets (2025–2026 Outlook): 🎯 First Target: 1.1022 – Fibonacci & OB confluence 🎯 Secondary Target: 1.0828 – Elliott Wave 3 full extension 🎯 Macro Target: 0.9500 – 2026 narrative climax zone “Distribution is never announced; it’s only visible in hindsight. But VolanX sees it unfolding in real time.” ⚠️ Invalidations: A weekly close back above 1.1850 would void this structure. Momentum confirmation pending from macro catalysts (ECB dovish, Fed delay). 🎯 Trade Strategy: Bias: Strong short Entry Zone: Any rally into 1.1700–1.1800 = premium rejection zone Execution: Build position in tranches, use volume spikes & SMC CHoCHs as confirmation Risk: Tight stop above 1.1850 (structure invalidation) 🔐 VolanX Strategic Note: 📡 The model confirms that EUR/USD is entering a structurally engineered distribution phase, driven by smart money exit flows, macro policy divergence, and a resurgent USD. Wave (3) compression is already under way. This is where conviction counts. ⚠️ Educational content only. Not financial advice. #EURUSD #AMD #SmartMoney #MacroTrading #VolanX #WaverVanir #ForexStrategy #LiquidityTrap #DSS #DistributionPhase
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
EUR/USD LIVE TRADE UPDATE📍Trade in Progress – Key S/R Retest Price is currently pulling back into the same S/R zone we sold from. If price breaks and closes above this zone, the setup could be invalidated. However, this level has shown strong historical structure, and we may see a rejection here. We’re watching closely for: A sign of momentum turning A potential engulfing candle confirming rejection 📌 A strong zone can hold—but we don’t guess. We observe and react with discipline.
Short
by darlwright
Dollar dips as politics cloud Fed picture | FX ResearchThe dollar extended its slide on Tuesday, weighed down by soft US regional data and renewed political pressure on the Fed, reinforcing the market's dovish bias. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged to -20, far below expectations, while business conditions and the Philly Fed survey showed slight improvements but remained in contractionary territory. Treasury Secretary Bessant added to the day's drama with mixed messaging, praising Fed Chair Powell's capabilities while simultaneously calling for an internal review and pressing for rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's stance that rates should be 300 basis points lower. Trade headlines added to the noise with Bessant signaling a hard August 1 deadline for trade talks and Trump announcing a new deal with Indonesia, albeit one that still includes steep tariffs. With the Fed in blackout mode ahead of its next meeting, markets are left to navigate a fog of political theatrics and economic uncertainty. The euro climbed to near one-month highs as the dollar softened. And traders now turn to upcoming US data and a heavy Treasury supply schedule for further direction. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Surges into Resistance Ahead of ECBEuro is poised to snap a two-week losing streak with EUR/USD up more than 1.2% since the Sunday open. The advance takes price back into weekly resistance ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank rate decision and the focus now shifts to the weekly close for guidance. Euro plunged more than 2.3% off the June high with price briefly registering an intraweek low at 1.1557 before rebounding. The rally takes EUR/USD into resistance at the objective high-week close (HWC) / high-close at 1.1775- looking for a reaction off this mark with a weekly close above needed to keep the immediate advance viable into the close of the month. Initial weekly support remains with the 2016 swing high at 1.1616 with the medium-term outlook still constructive while above the March trendline (red). Ultimately, a break below the 2020 / 2022 highs at 1.1497 would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway with subsequent support seen at the 2024 high close / May low-week close (LWC) at 1.1164. A breach / close above this pivot zone exposes the upper parallel (blue), currently near 1.1840s, with the next major technical consideration eyed at 1.1917-1.2020- a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2022 advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2008 decline (area of interest for possible top-side exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2021 HWC at 1.2227 and the 2018 high-close at 1.2456. Bottom line: Euro rebounded just ahead of the March uptrend with the rally now testing the yearly high-close ahead of the ECB- watch the Friday close with respect to 1.1775. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses would need to be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel still needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. -MB
by FOREXcom