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Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1661 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1615 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1744 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Can the Euro-Dollar Maintain Its Leadership in the FX Market?The Euro-Dollar is the best-performing major FX pair in 2025, and a short-term consolidation phase has begun below $1.18. This strength of the euro-dollar is surprising given the divergence in monetary policies. Can the euro-dollar go higher this year? How can this strength be explained fundamentally? In this week of ECB monetary policy decision (Thursday, July 24), let’s take a technical and fundamental look at the euro-dollar, which is stalling after reaching the technical resistance at $1.18. 1) Euro-Dollar’s Leadership in 2025 Defies the Logic of Monetary Policy Divergence 2025 is proving surprising in the FX market: the euro-dollar (EUR/USD) is the top-performing pair, with a gain of over 12% since the beginning of the year. This outperformance is puzzling if we rely on classic monetary fundamentals. The divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) should favor the dollar. The Fed maintains a prolonged monetary status quo with high rates due to persistent inflation and labor market tensions. In contrast, the ECB continued its rate-cutting cycle, reflecting a weaker European economy and better-contained inflation. Theoretically, this monetary asymmetry should have strengthened the dollar — yet the euro leads. This paradox is explained by a combination of fundamental factors. 2) Unexpected Fundamentals Are Driving the Euro-Dollar’s Strength in 2025 The euro-dollar’s bullish trend this year ignores the interest rate differential between the Fed and the ECB, both current and projected for the end of 2025. Here’s a summary of the bullish fundamentals that allowed the euro-dollar to overlook monetary divergence: • Trump administration’s fiscal policy raises concerns over U.S. debt sustainability (see long-term bond yields) • Trade war initiated by the Trump administration creates economic slowdown risks for U.S. companies heavily reliant on international trade • U.S. administration’s political will to improve currency competitiveness for exporters • European stocks catching up to U.S. stocks in valuation • Emerging markets’ will to diversify their public debt issuance • Euro catching up as a global reserve currency as diversification away from the U.S. dollar • Germany’s structural shift in fiscal and debt policy with massive investments in defense and industry • EU stimulus spending and the ECB’s perceived monetary policy coherence 3) Is $1.18 the Final High for the Euro-Dollar in 2025? Probably Not. The euro-dollar has been consolidating since early July after hitting $1.18. Is this the peak for the year? The answer is no — unless EUR/USD breaks below the $1.13/$1.15 support and unless institutional net positions reverse from their upward trend (see yellow line in CFTC COT data). DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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by Swissquote
EURUSD under pressure despite Powell being on his way outEURUSD remains under pressure as US jobless claims improve and Powell appears to be on his way out. Still, the impact has been limited, and the broader trend remains upward. With growing speculation around Powell’s replacement, the market may look to form a bottom. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Lingrid | EURUSD Pulled Back to Key Support levelFX:EURUSD is approaching a major confluence zone at 1.16422 where the downward channel meets the upward trendline and horizontal support. The structure remains bullish with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, and the current pullback fits within a healthy correction phase. A strong bounce from this triple-support region could trigger a reversal toward 1.18320, validating the continuation of the broader uptrend. All eyes are now on the 1.16450 reaction point for early momentum signs. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: bullish reaction from 1.16422 support zone Buy zone: 1.16200–1.16500 (channel base + trendline + demand) Target: 1.18320 Invalidation: confirmed 4H close below 1.1600 breaks upward structure 💡 Risks Deeper push below the trendline may trap early buyers Low liquidity during the bounce can cause fakeouts Unexpected USD strength could stall recovery momentum If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
22
EURUSD Elliott Wave: Top in PlaceExecutive Summary Wave 1 rally from January 2025 to July 2025 appears complete Decline to 1.1170 and possibly 1.08 in wave 2. The support shelf near 1.1170 may contain the decline. We now have enough evidence in place to consider a medium-term (or longer) top in place for EURUSD. The weekly chart above shows a rally from the January 2025 low that reached the upper parallel at the July high. This rally appears to be complete and a sideways to lower consolidation is likely underway. On January 24, we forecasted a rally with a second target of 1.18. EURUSD reached the target topping at 1.1830. Now, it’s time to flip the scrip as a correction is likely underway to correct that strong rally. The 6-month rally in EURUSD appears to have ended this month and a correction is likely underway to 1.1170 and possibly lower levels. The top of EURUSD on July 1 is labeled as wave 1. The decline underway appears incomplete and would be wave 2. Within the wave 1, wave ((v)) measures equal to wave ((i)) at 1.1832, just a couple of pips within the actual high. Additionally, there is RSI divergence within the wave ((v)) and wave ((iii)) highs. This is a common pattern within a fifth wave of an Elliott wave impulse pattern. The next trend (lower) will likely carry to below 1.1170. Near this level is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the 6-month rally. Additionally, there is a support shelf of broken resistance and congestion appearing between 1.1033 - 1.1275. At the lower end of that price zone is a broken trend line dating back to 2023. Therefore, this price zone will offer up a strong level of support that may launch the next rally or at least a small bounce. BOTTOM LINE The Elliott wave impulse pattern from January to July 2025 appears over. A downward correction appears to have begun and may visit 1.1170 and possibly lower levels. As the downward trend takes hold, we’ll review its structure to determine where we are at within the larger wave sequence.
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
EUR/USD : Another Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently breaking through the 1.16–1.158 zone. If it manages to hold below 1.159, we can expect further downside movement. The next targets for EURUSD are 1.15580, 1.154, and 1.148. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
15
EURUSD major resistance breakout bullish strong Readmore...📊EURUSD Analysis – 1H Timeframe EURUSD has broken out of the descending channel with strength, shifting structure and showing clear bullish intent 📌 Breakout Confirmed: ✅ Major resistance at 1.16900 broken with strong momentum — now acting as support Buy position activated from the 1.16900 breakout level 🎯 Next Resistance Targets / Supply Zones: 🔹 1.17200 🔹 1.17500 🔹 1.17600 Watching for reaction at these levels — trend continuation likely as long as structure holds 🧠Always follow your trading plan and risk rules — markets don’t promise, they move! What’s your take on EURUSD’s breakout? Drop your thoughts below #eurusd 👋Regards from expert Team
Long
by experttrader04
1
Short Term Market Reversal IncomingRetail’s still buying breakouts, but the music just stopped. This was the rally they weren’t supposed to catch. Now it’s time to flip the script and bleed it back to origin. Trading is a very difficult profession. Most people fail, but it's also not impossible. If you don't trade you're a loser. It's a zero-sum game. 0 1 Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competing entities, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. It's all just digits on a screen and if they want your money they'll take your money, so you gotta respect your risk management if you don't want to lose everything or you'll have to break the matrix by seeing into the future, Once you get to see the future. THERE IS NO TURNING BACK. If you're reading this I hope you're having a great year. This year is all about endings and new beginnings. So stay locked in. WAGMI Oh yeah don't forget I gave you guys FX_IDC:EURUSD at 1.03 and FX_IDC:XAGUSD at $22 Nerds
Short
by Orgest
EUR/USD LIVE TRADE UPDATE📍Trade in Progress – Key S/R Retest Price is currently pulling back into the same S/R zone we sold from. If price breaks and closes above this zone, the setup could be invalidated. However, this level has shown strong historical structure, and we may see a rejection here. We’re watching closely for: A sign of momentum turning A potential engulfing candle confirming rejection 📌 A strong zone can hold—but we don’t guess. We observe and react with discipline.
Short
by darlwright
EUR/USD long: The Fed Chair debacle is getting spicyHello traders My previous EUR/USD long did not pan out but I am swinging again. My entry order at 1.0563 was filled by the skinny skin of my teeth but so far so good. I'll use a trailing stop for this trade. The pressure on Fed Chair Powell is being ramped up by Trump's attack dogs with allegations of mismanaging Federal funds(gasp :) ) during the FOMC headquarters. We all saw the result of the rumor that Powell was fired/is considering resigning yesterday and as much as I am sure it pained DJT, he had to refute the rumor, no doubt on advice from Bessent. In addition, FOMC board member Waller publicly dissented today and suggested a rate cut at the July meeting. On the economic calendar we have the ECB rate decision, JOLTS, ADP and finally FOMC over the next two weeks. This is purely a technical play but I am keeping a close eye on the bond markets, the CME FedWatch tool and as for trade and tariffs, who cares... I mentioned the Federal Court of Appeals case regarding the IEEPA court decision starting on 7/31/2025. For anyone interested in the court's decision, www.cafc.uscourts.gov More importantly, you can sign up for a notification at courtlistener.com which is a free service. I have used it in the past and not only is it free but I also received the notification in a very timely manner. www.courtlistener.com Best of luck.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
EUR/USD Surges into Resistance Ahead of ECBEuro is poised to snap a two-week losing streak with EUR/USD up more than 1.2% since the Sunday open. The advance takes price back into weekly resistance ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank rate decision and the focus now shifts to the weekly close for guidance. Euro plunged more than 2.3% off the June high with price briefly registering an intraweek low at 1.1557 before rebounding. The rally takes EUR/USD into resistance at the objective high-week close (HWC) / high-close at 1.1775- looking for a reaction off this mark with a weekly close above needed to keep the immediate advance viable into the close of the month. Initial weekly support remains with the 2016 swing high at 1.1616 with the medium-term outlook still constructive while above the March trendline (red). Ultimately, a break below the 2020 / 2022 highs at 1.1497 would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway with subsequent support seen at the 2024 high close / May low-week close (LWC) at 1.1164. A breach / close above this pivot zone exposes the upper parallel (blue), currently near 1.1840s, with the next major technical consideration eyed at 1.1917-1.2020- a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2022 advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2008 decline (area of interest for possible top-side exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2021 HWC at 1.2227 and the 2018 high-close at 1.2456. Bottom line: Euro rebounded just ahead of the March uptrend with the rally now testing the yearly high-close ahead of the ECB- watch the Friday close with respect to 1.1775. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses would need to be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel still needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. -MB
by FOREXcom
Dollar dips as politics cloud Fed picture | FX ResearchThe dollar extended its slide on Tuesday, weighed down by soft US regional data and renewed political pressure on the Fed, reinforcing the market's dovish bias. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged to -20, far below expectations, while business conditions and the Philly Fed survey showed slight improvements but remained in contractionary territory. Treasury Secretary Bessant added to the day's drama with mixed messaging, praising Fed Chair Powell's capabilities while simultaneously calling for an internal review and pressing for rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's stance that rates should be 300 basis points lower. Trade headlines added to the noise with Bessant signaling a hard August 1 deadline for trade talks and Trump announcing a new deal with Indonesia, albeit one that still includes steep tariffs. With the Fed in blackout mode ahead of its next meeting, markets are left to navigate a fog of political theatrics and economic uncertainty. The euro climbed to near one-month highs as the dollar softened. And traders now turn to upcoming US data and a heavy Treasury supply schedule for further direction. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets