FED slowing down balance sheet reduct,good new for marketMarket sentiment has been pessimistic over the past few days, with some expecting further declines while others anticipate a rebound. However, after scanning through online discussions, I was surprised that almost no one is talking about the most critical piece of information for April!
— Starting in April, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reduce the monthly redemption cap on U.S. Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion to slow down the decline in its securities holdings.!
If we look back at May 2024, the Fed made the same move, which led to a significant rally from May to July.
For those who remain bearish, it's crucial to have proper stop-loss strategies in place. After April 2, as long as technical indicators align, we should expect a strong rebound.
NAS100 trade ideas
NASDAQ Huge Bullish Divergence points to 21350 inside April.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 11 2024 High. The latest rally that started on March 11 2025 after a brutal 3-week downtrend/ Bearish Leg, got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the market digested the disappointing PCE.
Despite this aggressive rejection, the price hit and rebounded yesterday exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up with the previous such contact going back to the August 05 2024 Low. Not to mention that both the March 11 2025 and August 08 2024 Lows were formed exactly on the secondary Higher Lows trend-line.
What's perhaps more critical than any of these though, is that the 1D RSI didn't make a new Low last week and remains above the oversold barrier on a Higher Low trend-line that is a huge technical Bullish Divergence against the price's Lower Lows.
As with the August 22 2024 High, our first short-term Target is on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 21350.
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Nas 3/31/2025I am working on looking at the bigger picture, and this is what I am seeing with NAS.
I do not have the percentages and what not correct on my GANN box just FYI, but that would be the zone I am watching. I think she may go a little higher, but then after that, there is a strong support line from August 2024 not far below, that I think she will continue to drop down too, and then decide which trend she want's to go for from there. lol
Yes, NAS is a girl to me.
She is too indecisive, not to be, lol
NASDAQ: Forming the bottom. Don't miss the 2025 rally to 28,000.Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.342, MACD = -382.320, ADX = 38.919), headed towards oversold territory. 1W is also headed towards an oversold state (RSI = 36.953) as the price has crossed under the 1W MA50 and is approaching the 1W MA100. This is currently waiting at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up. This 6 month correction is so far technically nothing but the bearish wave of this Channel Up and has been almost as strong (-15.89%) as the previous in July-Aug 2024.
Notice an key technical tendency here, no correction/bearish wave has ever crossed under the S1 level of two highs before. The current S1 is at 18,400. So taking those conditions into consideration as well as the fact that the 1W RSI is at the bottom of its Channel Down, we see this week as the bottom formation candle that will start a new bullish wave. The prior two such waves both made an incredibly symmetric rise of +52.60%, so expecting the same puts our target at TP = 28,000, most likely by December 2025-January 2026.
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Nasdaq 100 Opens the Door to a New Bearish TrendThe Nasdaq has been one of the indices showing the strongest selling bias in recent sessions. Over the past four trading days, it has fallen by more than 7% , as the market remains gripped by uncertainty surrounding White House trade policies and the threat of a new trade war. The proposed 25% tariffs on several countries are expected to take effect on April 2, and so far, there has been no official indication of a change in schedule. This has increased fears of a potential global economic slowdown, and if these conditions persist, it could further pressure equity indices, especially those already showing strong short-term bearish momentum.
New Potential Downtrend
Since February 20, the Nasdaq has been experiencing consistent selling pressure, driving the index below the 19,000-point level. Recent bullish attempts have so far failed to break through this new downward trendline, which now stands as the dominant technical structure for the index. If selling pressure remains intact, the current bearish trend could extend over the coming sessions.
ADX Indicator
Although the ADX line remains above the 20 level—generally considered the threshold for trend strength—it has been sloping downward, suggesting that the recent buying momentum may be losing strength, potentially leading to a short-term pause in market activity.
RSI Indicator
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a similar picture. The RSI is hovering near the oversold zone at 30, and a bullish divergence has formed, as the Nasdaq has made lower lows, while the RSI has posted higher lows. This could indicate that selling momentum may be weakening, potentially paving the way for a short-term bullish correction.
Key Levels:
20,500 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. Price action approaching this area could revive bullish sentiment and potentially invalidate the current downtrend visible on the chart.
19,700 points – Near resistance: This level marks the upper boundary of the short-term descending trendline. It may serve as a tentative area for corrective upward movements in the upcoming sessions.
18,800 points – Key support: This level corresponds to 2024’s neutral price zone. If the price breaks below it, it could reinforce the current bearish trend and lead to further downside.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
NQ: Q/M/W Analysis!FA Analysis
ST/MT/LT Outlook: SELL
1- US Economy: Recession/slowing down economy
2- Inflation is UP!
3- Trump's policies: Tariffs; Treasury hole;
4- Consumer sentiment and corporation sentiment are down
5- FED has hands tied; under Trump's pressure; confirmed uncertainty
6- Europe is waking up: Major investments in Infrastructures and Defense; Europe is and will attract investments (US equities DOWN Versus EUR Equities UP)
7- GOLD made new ATH seeking the sky as a response to UNCERTAINTY.
All the above are very bad for US equities.
7- This week, we have key employment data (i.e., Jolts and NFP). Market expectations are very low. But I won't be surprised if NFP data comes NEGATIVE.
8- April 2nd: US tariffs comes into effect!
9- Market made already their decision: sell-off! Even with good news (i.e., today's Europe bending knee); So any good news will be short live, unless all these non-sense tariffs go away which is unlikely.
TA Analysis:
Quarterly TF
Strong bearish Q candle! A confirmed break of TL, it means continuation down.
Monthly TF
Same here: strong bearish Monthly candle!
The chart shows next key targets.
Weekly TF
Same thing: Very strong bearish weekly close. This weekly candle is the strongest bearish candle you may have!
Price closed below 19620 (mentioned previously). During the last week, price bounced to test the previous swing of 19620 and grabbed liquidity and went down in an impulsive way. This wave still have room to continue down.
Daily TF
Last Friday daily candle is now the new strong resistance that buyers have to go through to make a change of structure. Many large sellers are sitting there.
Nasdaq Daily time frame - Rising wedgeNASDAQ 100 (US100) Analysis - March 31, 2025
Trend & Structure
The chart shows a strong bearish breakdown from a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation.
After a sharp decline from all-time highs, price is breaking below key support at 19,921.
The next major support zone is highlighted in purple, around 18,000 - 17,600, which served as a base for the last rally in mid-2024.
Volume Analysis
The volume is increasing on the decline, which confirms strong selling pressure.
If price enters the purple zone, we could see a reaction (either consolidation or bounce).
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels:
19,921 (previous support, now resistance)
20,532 (higher resistance level if a pullback occurs)
Support Levels:
18,800 (current level) - slight reaction zone
18,000 - 17,600 (strong demand zone)
Potential Scenarios
Bearish Continuation: If sellers remain in control, price could fall further into the 18,000 - 17,600 zone, where a potential rebound may occur.
Short-term Pullback: A retracement back to 19,921 (previous support turned resistance) before continuing lower.
Conclusion
Trend is bearish, and further downside is likely unless buyers step in at the highlighted demand zone.
Traders should watch for price action at 18,000 - 17,600 to see if buyers defend this area.
Short-term rallies could be selling opportunities unless price reclaims 19,921.
NASDAQ 55% dip coming? The next two weeks are critical...I haven't posted on here in a minute but the NAS is looking weak, along with the SP and DOW, but mainly the SP and NAS. The next two weeks are critical to the remainder of the year. If we breach the 2024 high and close below it in January, I anticipate more lows. If we breach above it, and can hold above it through mid-February, we're probably looking at another bullish year.
My analysis points to a consolidation with bearish intent on the horizon, with a potential target of 9,800.
The tools I used in this video are liquidity techniques.
This is a macro/yearly analysis.
There is no "setup" I only use yearly outlooks to help me gauge sentiment.
The possible catalyst for us to breach and reverse the 2024 high could be inauguration. The time window to monitor is now through the Super Bowl.
If you want to learn my style of trading I'm opening a group this summer, give me a follow on trading view and I'll reach out to you when it launches.
....
I apologize for any noises in the background, and my explanations being a little scattered, I'm busy but wanted to get this analysis done real quick before it was too late, or I forgot, I've been meaning to post this since early December.
Us100 Upward or downward?In the 5-minute timeframe, you can sell at the top of the trading range and buy at the bottom of the trading range (by observing reversal candles and patterns).
Alternatively, you can wait for a breakout and enter in the direction of the breakout.
Be mindful of fake breakouts.
NAS100 EYESI am honestly intending to see some buys, so I did not draft for this video hence my mind was all over the zones and the gaps, I wannit to talk bias but I ended up analyzing to trade. I am sorry about that but we will fix it as soon as possible. Happy Trading.
Lastly, if your plan fail, don't reconsider another entry, especially on the same day.
How Low Could the Nasdaq Go?The Nasdaq-100 has pulled the broader market lower since late February. What could be next for the tech-heavy index?
The first pattern to consider is the 20,315 level: its post-election pullback low on November 15. NDX slid below that price in early March and rebounded to stall at the same area last week. That could make some chart watchers think old support has become new resistance.
The index also peaked at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which may suggest the longer-term trend has grown more bearish. The falling 8- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) may paint a similar picture in the shorter term.
That combination of patterns, including a lower high at old support, could make traders expect a lower low. The September trough near 18,400 may be a logical place to look.
We’ll next consider two important charts impacting the Nasdaq.
First, Apple NASDAQ:AAPL made a potentially lower high at its falling 21-day EMA. It also stalled at a 50 percent retracement of a recent move. The 50-day SMA may be nearing a “death cross” under the 200-day SMA, as well.
Second, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index NASDAQ:SOX closed slightly below its previous low from April. Does it face risk of a further breakdown?
If those two charts result in bearish price action, it may additionally keep pressure on NDX.
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