NL25 trade ideas
Friday 13th of January (end of the week) Dutch AEX-index"Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth."
Buddha
So can we short the AEX-index with full moon?
TradingEcology applies understanding of natural patterns towards stock movement as learned by the masters of math: W.D. Gann and Fibonacci. As this trading week have ended, some very interesting patterns can run the show for coming two weeks, till first week of February
In the chart, TradingEcology has detected two harmonic price patterns which will be initiated near point C (blue arrow down). As the 'FTI (aex-future) closed on 22pm (later than displayed 'aex 'cfd here) a valid short has been recored on 2h timeframe on Friday 13th of January. Those kind of setups give very minor reasons for a rise in price, with time is ticking and favor of a little short correction as well.
TradingEcology has detection built on the following major point from last two years of trading. As described in the yearly hot projection report.
- High in April 2015
- Low in February 2016
Natural ratio's
Moonphase: 29.53
Moonphase /4 = 7.382 (while 0,382 is a fibonacci ratio)
This ratio pointed at the 11th of January 2017 which may unfold as a high (point A in the middle) since point C has been set at 0,886 ratio lower.
If we make this up to one, so 7,618 than we are on 16th of January 2017 as a time trigger to short for a minor correction. Please find this method of roottime calculation in the hot projection report of 2017.
However Nikkei and Crude oil are on a balance level, and can thus change into a new bull leg up for now reason (as shorts will forced to cover), it is likely to go lower coming week of trading. TradingEcology has a short viewpoint on markets if the 490 level in 'AEX will hold as a firm resistance coming week. With sounds risk management a breach below 486,40 (horizontal dotted line) will open short opportunities towards 481,60 and 478,10. All scenarios should be rewiewed under if and then conditions, never be rigid in thinking and stay flexible in execution. Manage your risk wisely, and remember be long volatility when vola is low!
With some uncertainty TradingEcology has an overnight short position in 'AEX and a profit target in short target zone between points D and D (481,60 - 478,10) with stop at 490.
this position is in accordance with common sense risk management criteria
Best to your trading.
With kind regards,
Trading Ecology
Trading natural patterns unnaturally perfect
AEX a few hours before Trump speach (11th of January 2017)With a valid long in 15mi tf, it would be possible to encounter a bull leg up this afternoon and extended in time to Friday (up).
Will short covering be triggered at 490,10 ?
On higher timeframes we are looking for short entries.
AEX low of 11th Feb 2016 a medium point in major cyclesLooking at the bigger picture to check reality.
A line from low in 9th March 2009 (point X) crossed line AB exactly on half the way. Look how important iimportant that associated pricelevel (312) was in end of 2009 and beginning of 2010. The line with a ratio 2.13 (a 4th square 0.14% root of 1.618) projected the high in 2015. As it was easy the halfway point 50% level was the low of 11th February 2016. So to speak an important point in medium cycle.
The low from 2009 is approximately 120 points to the 312 line (which is 1/3 of 360degree cycle).
Half a cycle is 180 and if you add 312 you reach a top at 492.
In general I am not sure if market is making a medium-term top in very end of 2016. It could be reasonable to say buyers will dry up and profit taking could lead to a correction in price. Heads up for shorts!
P.S. following ratio applied to this scenario:
square 0.14% root of 0.5 = 0,707
1.707/2 = 0,85035
0.60*0.60=0.36 which is 9number and 360degree cycle number
0.666 number of the sun
1.066 is 1.136 a fibo. ratio
AEX at what price?As euphoria rules to show and profits in long are made easy last 14days of trading.
Although last two days of trading the aex market seems quite flat, we have had a 5point gain in this afternoon trading.
With short signals in end of day for AEX, RDSA and ING I am looking for good entries for shorts!
AEX: how strong are the bulls?Markets are still flooded with money and liquidity is everywhere.
It might be possible that longs are taking profit for the next run up. In this scenario, Point D could far to way.
I assume to short the AEX based on time at 15th of December, lets just look if price goes up till that time!
Future Stock PricingThis is the Amsterdam stock index which moves similar to other European indexes, as Dollar is gaining value and US stocks rising through artificial central bank capital flow assets around the world will just keep on pumping for at least another two years and US will complete the bubble around 2020.
AEX 2nd dec 2016 (trade from c to d)I closed my longs at point D.
Just wait for better time and entry!
AEX as of 2nd dec 2016 (on a short and down day)What happend as foreseen by nummerology!
Harmonic allignement in point D lets trade long to 449 area.
AEX as 1th of December 2016Trading on Thursday, bnp was bid only on several leverage products...so profits where not that big in end of the day trading.
Point C was a good point since Gann was in at 458,30 in fti
AEX trading on 29th of november 2016Valid long signal at point X occured in 5 and 3min tf however not massive power. Point D was a good trade to wait for!
Best to your trading.
How to hedge marketrisk with opposite movements in the market?In the follow graph you can see the following 'stocks':
GOLD ETF, AEX (indextracker) and Unilever
You can also see the expanded ghost patern that will predict the marketmovement/divergence between the 'stocks'.
In this case:
GOLD will fall = AEX will rise | Unilever will fall or rise 3.5% more than the AEX will rise or fall
(or)
AEX will fall = GOLD will rise | Unilever will fall or rise 3.5% more than the AEX will rise or fall
Why have i choose Unilver to compare with the index and gold?
*'Some stocks do heavly move in different directions, even if there are no updates from the company. Unilver is one of this kind of company's'. This means that we can hedge risk or take risk in combination with the prospected marketmovements in the index / commoditie
Information deserved from: Bloomberg and ING Markets
AEX is forming Head and Shoulder patternAEX is forming Head & Shoulder pattern with neck line around 437.5. When neck line doesn’t hold, the AEX could drop until around 410. This will form the head of another Head & Shoulder pattern.
AEX ShorttripAs a top got confirmed together with change in momentum, negative crossing of stochastics, i'm looking towards next levels.
446 as a support and bottom trendline.
Area around 438 again as support and bottom trendline.
A short position should be held as long no bottoming has formed around those levels.
Purpose is to let profits run.. everyone wants that.
So the Exp. MA 3 and 8 are helping to determine the trend. A close under Ema 3 is a strong downtrend.
During the trend the Ema 8 can be tested. As long no close occurs above the Ema 8 the short position remains.
Note that a strong reversal candlepattern might also trigger a take profit.
Why i am long Indices in Early October30/09/16:
Db just had a huge correction forcing Germany or ECB to step in pritty soon.
With this burden on an all time low its less to bother about for indices.
Sure if db crashes then you can say goodbye to this entire plan, but probably many plans will be garbage then.
And does the world really need a new financial crash?
I dont think so...
We recently had an opec deal to cut output, personally i am sceptical due to non opec producers beeing able to pick up the pace with higher prices so this may put some downward pressure into the upcoming month.
Last we have the us stock exchanges who are all near ath's and keep hovering around that zone with no immediate new problems to be sighted (excluding wells fargo perhaps) in usa i dont expect usa indices to put much pressure into european indices into early october.
Given the current aex price (also dax and other european indices) i am prity sure to open calls on eu indices with a targetdate of a few weeks.
Check in on the other charts as well i'll comment for a zoomed vieuw.
AEX seems to form a Head & Shoulders pattern in long runAEX seems to form a Head & Shoulders pattern, similar like in 2005-2008. Pattern starts with forming the left shoulder in summer 2013. And right shoulder starts February 2016. Right shoulder could make a top around end of first quarter 2017.
AEX - Call End of WeekUS and Asian markets closed lower last friday. AEX opened very low.
AEX recover till end of week. General sentiment is positive, although Draghi made it less positive last thursday.
AEX daytimeframe february - july compare to FTSE index
If we look at the AEX we are seeing an uptrend, but if we look at the FTSE, we are seeing an breaking-out above the upward trendline. If we look at the RSI index we are seeing an really long trend the last time above our upper band. If we look at the MACD we have some pression the last semair.
If are looking aging at our stockimage in the bollinger bands there could come some moment were the MA will cross under the basis line of the Bollinger bands. This means that there could be some pression what can results in a downtrend.
Also Bloomberg has been uploaded some content about the bad politic situation in the UK when the prime minister is getting out. This can also result in a shockwave in financial markets (most likely is the markets that are in correlation with the FTSE)
