US2000 trade ideas
RUT 2nd Half Scale in RUT us forming an extended wave v that points the wave (v) upside target of 161.8% retracement at 1430 level. Wave v must hold at 1542 to the the Corrective Flat Pattern valid. Expect this terminal rally into our final resistance zone before the decline starts.
We are looking to scale in with 2nd half of bear put butterfly. For now, the 1481 should offer massive resistance that setups for a 10% decline. New Butterfly Spread 1330/1150/1030 Put Debit Butterfly expiring Aug 31st 2020.
Russell 2000 - time for a break?US markets have rallied dramatically since the February "crash" but is it time for a pause? This pitchfork mid-line has provided strong support and resistance for this index. Will the index smash through it or take some time to consolidate?
Law of ReversibilityThis theory is based on the Law of Suggestions that you can find in many psychology books or self development on the human mind.
Consider this article for a moment.
If you have only 5 seconds to glance through, I bet the keywords that stays in your mind will be
severe and self off
And the Media are well aware of this and when they put up the article, they too spent time on choosing the right headlines that sells the sizzles, that hit fast to the mind of humans. Don't forget there is fierce competition out there and many analysts, traders, etc will not have the world of time to digest each and every piece of article.
They rely on headlines or at the most the first paragraph so that they can act fast to buy or sell.
Let me break it down for you what happens when this piece of information enters your mind :
1. think about it
2 feel about it
3. decide what to do about it
4 act on it
So, if you are long on your positions, say SPX500 as an example, this could be what you might do :
1. hmmm, could the author be right ? What if a sell-off comes ? worse, a severe one ? wouldn't that wipe out my profits ? should I sell now?
2. I feel uneasy , I can't sleep at night, I feel I need to do something about my positions
3. I decide to trim down my position size next week, maybe take some early profits (after all - a bird in hand is worth two at the bush)
4. The pressure on 2 builds up and it spurs you to act on it - ie, you sold some of your positions and immediately, you felt a sense of relief.
What happens after a week?
The market continues to charge higher, in fact it rallys up another 12$% ,causing you to lose a potential profit of another 1000 dollars.
You begin to curse and swear at yourself , then you reminded yourself of the article you read and re-read again and the guilt, shame, pain , all combined into one makes you feel pretty lousy. You felt you had been short-changed and promised never to repeat the same mistake again.
Until the next article is published ............
In applying the Law of Reversibility, you become fully aware of what you are reading. You verify if the information is correct by checking on your chart. Is it a normal correction in a bullish move that the author was claiming to be a severe sell-off ? Did you have your SL in place ? How far was the current price from your target ?
What is your time horizon in buying this stock or index ? Short term, medium term or long term?
Do you. have a reliable trading strategy to fall back on ? Example using trend line , support and resistance or moving averages ,etc.
Did you back track to 10-20 years on your charts and see if such negative comments by the press comes true or the reverse ? Is there a patten you can map out ?
If you are buying into a company, what is the fundamental like ? Is it in the growth industry or sun-set industry ?
By asking yourself objective questions like this and doing your due diligence, you become your own Sherlock Holmes, only believing the evidence you gathered on your own. Don't be lazy and listen to these experts and act on it blindly, be it fear or anything else (these guys are from top investment banks, surely they know more than me). The last sentence is the most misleading when comes to trading and investment. Just because someone has a CFA does not make him a better trader.
If you have done your homework and you act on it and the price still shoot up after you sell, at least you learn something from it. Go back to the drawing board and re-evaluate what is the missing puzzle. This step by step real life learning is precious, valuable to the point that nobody can take away from you.
There is no failure, only feedback so use these feedbacks to improve on your trades. Don't trade mechanically, be a smart trader, be mindful of your incoming and outgoing funds. And that could also be a danger as it is virtual, you don't see it , touch it so transferring funds in and out can become a routine for some and as they top up more and more, they lose touch of the pain of losing the money , they just follow the path that leads them lower.
Recognise that only you and you alone can make the change. You can reverse the loss and turn it into a profit. Have the courage to face it and build a story so compelling that your children children would never forget.............
US Russel 2000 threadOn a weekly frame the upside move looks quite strong. But zooming into a h4 frame we see the overlapping structure, that is, likely, a completed triple combination.
RSI shows divergence against the higher high on the price chart. I assume that the move has lost its momentum and expect continuation of the down trend
Please make sure that you read the disclosure below.
If you find the analysis insightful and practical, you are welcome to follow, share and "like" it.
---
This and further posts express my own views based on technical and wave analysis, and is subject to change without notice.
I undertake no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this post or to otherwise provide any additional analysis and materials.
Any projections, outlooks or estimates herein are based upon certain assumptions. Other events, there were not taken into account in this analysis, may occur and may significantly affect the performance of the financial instruments discussed in my posts. Traders should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any financial instrument.
I am not receiving any compensation for it, other than my trading PL, and accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.
US2000 good buy from market openHi Guys,
This trade is mostly going to be up from Market open on monday. Good reversal spotted and It will go upto previous resistance. SL level marked in chart.
US30- Dowjones Industrial average is having similar pattern, but risk/reward ratio is less comparively.
Trail your stop losses accordingly.
TraderX7.
RUT End Of Week EvaluationTrend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bullish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest long positions
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 114.668 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .265x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices have broken through the high value of the consolidation range.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1172.77 to 1615.29 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1336.70 to 1464.90 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1422.25
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 1 to 2 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 40.00% are bullish, 10.00% are bearish, 50.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bullish - Close/Cover directional trades
Suggested stops based on long positions on weekly chart:
Close - (ATR * 1.5) at: 1222.04
SMA 13 at: 1242.01
RUT2000Trading at 1392.20 As predicted Stay tune For this pair I will Update Next Entry For long only
RUT End Of Week EvaluationTrend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bearish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest close current positions.
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 111.829 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .03x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices are currently caught in consolidation between 1181.10 and 1373.39.
While in consolidation the trade range may decrease to 68.598 points/ticks/pips.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1127.21 to 1583.85 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1286.42 to 1424.64 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1422.25
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 1 to 2 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 36.36% are bullish, 27.27% are bearish, 36.36% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bearish - Close/Cover directional trades, profit taking/trend switch in process.
RUT Wave Count Update (Still Keep our -ve Delta Flies) RUT loosing momentum on current levels, our Aug 31st flies are moving against us but the wave count is still valid, so we're looking to scale in 2nd half with more -ve delta flies if RUT continues this extended move higher.
RUT End Of Week EvaluationTrend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bearish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest hold current position but prepare to close, ensure stops are placed.
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 109.47 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .97x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices are currently caught in consolidation between 966.22 and 1396.25.
While in consolidation the trade range may decrease to 67.362 points/ticks/pips.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1022.96 to 1491.03 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1189.34 to 1324.64 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move first toward 1162.58 before moving toward 1311
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 2 - 4 trade periods (weeks) for the first projection and 1 - 2 to reach the second projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 27.27% are bullish, 45.45% are bearish, 27.27% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Strongly bearish - No entries at this time. If in, consider covering..
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bearish - Close/Cover directional trades, profit taking/trend switch in process.
Russell 2000 - still bullish or am I?The red line on this chart is a median line of a pitchfork that originates back in 1988 and it has provided strong support and resistance for this index along the way. The rally in this index seems to have ground to a halt on that median line which is also the 61.8 fib retracement of the move down. Are the red and blue counts too optimistic and the 3rd, purple scenario is the one I should be paying attention too?
In war time, go after the weakest link firstOf the 4 US major indices, which one is the weakest ? The Russell 2000 which comprises the small medium enterprises ,the traditional businesses.
They are the ones that are fighting for survival, not the top guns like FB, Apple or Microsoft which have rich cash reserves to tide them over.
See explanation in chart
13 May 2020 swift evaluation of RUTA swift evaluation is conducted based on a single day without look back.
RUT is currently in a bear trend.
Prices are trading in a range of approximately 35.88 points/ticks/pips per trade period.
Price strength is suggesting a possible follow on range of 1211.08 - 1255.42.
If strength and trend continue, RUT is trying to reach 1198.59.
It could take between 1 to 2 trade periods to reach the projection.
Suggested stops in a Bearish environment.
Last Price + (ATR * 1.5): 1287.07
The trend moving average: 1261.52
SAR: 1355.01
RUT2k Short Entry (Updated) 20:01:24 (UTC) Wed May 13, 2020See previous trade entry prior to the New York open this morning.
20:01:51 (UTC)
Wed May 13, 2020
The Price When Trump Was Elected President on RUTOn the RUT, the price when Trump was elected president has served as a psychological barrier of resistance so far. It appears that resistance might be holding and a greater fall will ensue in the medium-term.
Possible target is 760 in the RUT from the current 1275.
