GER40 trade ideas
GER40 Trade Log Trade Setup (30/10/2024) - GER40 Long on Daily / 4H FVG
1. Setup: Entering a long position within the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily and 4-hour timeframes, as this zone serves as a key demand area.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Confirmation: Look for signs of bullish support or reversal patterns within the FVG zone, such as a bullish engulfing candle or strong rejection wick on the 4H or daily chart.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss just below the FVG to manage downside risk.
- Take-profit set at twice the stop-loss distance, aligned with nearby resistance or supply levels for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Monitor macroeconomic news and European market sentiment that could impact GER40.
- Wait for solid bullish signs within the FVG to ensure higher probability for upside momentum.
This setup leverages the multi-timeframe FVG as a demand zone, aiming for a high-probability long entry if price shows support within this area.
GER40 Trade Log ### Trade Setup (29/10/2024):
1. Short in 4H FVG:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Stop-Loss: Above the 4H FVG.
- Challenge: An open pump could threaten the short.
- Mitigation: Consider waiting for a bearish confirmation within the FVG before entry.
2. Long in 30-Minute FVG:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Stop-Loss: Below the 30-minute FVG.
- Catalyst: Potential for an open pump, filling the FVG and moving upwards.
Strategy:
- Multi-timeframe approach with opposing trades.
- Monitor for intraday confirmation signals on each setup.
- Manage risk independently; if one trade reaches take-profit, reassess the other.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Neutral. Choppy week with going nowhere. Market was moving sideways while other markets melted higher. Can’t be anything but neutral, since market is contracting in a tighter range. If I had to guess, I’d say bulls have a slightly higher chance of printing a new ath than bears breaking below 19000, just due to overall market euphoria. If bears break below 19000, measured move down is 18000. Bullish break above 19700 and we go for 20000. Buying below 19200 has been profitable for 2 months and I don’t expect it to fail next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Big week for the bears since they broke the bull rally and most recent trend line, which turned the market neutral at previous support. Now comes the most important price action for the coming weeks. If bears get their strong second leg down, we will see 18200 in November, if we go sideways from here, odds drop for the bears and market is probably ranging more at the highs. It would also keep the possibility alive to print 20000 this year. The timing of the selling was in between very good earnings and mediocre outlooks. If we continue down, this would probably mean funds want to secure profits in this year and the selling could accelerate.
comment : Bears failed at 19000 which keeps 20000 alive and it’s more likely that we continue sideways than a break to the downside. Above 19600 I would favor the bulls to get it to a new ath and potentially to 20000. Wednesday was the most important day last week and I would join either side above or below that bar. Otherwise there is currently no deeper meaning of this trading range near the ath.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 20000
bull case: Bulls failed on Wednesday where they were rejected big time from 19560 for 500 points down. They have been printing higher lows since and now they need a break above 19600 for 19700 and then potentially 20000. As of now the market is in balance around 19300 and the triangle will play out some more. Any long below 19200 has been profitable for a month, so look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Even with the big reversal on Wednesday, bears do not have much right now. Support is holding and market is spiking up, rather than below. As long as bears can’t print a daily close below 19000, it is useless to look at this from a bearish point of view. Even if bears get below 19000, the weekly 20ema is around 18800, so the downside is probably very limited, while bulls have the big target 800 points higher.
Invalidation is above 19700.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish for a second leg down, as long as we stay below 19400.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19254 and now we are at 19215. Monday and Tuesday were nothingburger and Wednesday crossed my invalidation line pretty fast. Wrong outlook anyway.
short term: Neutral 19000 - 19700, bullish above for 20000. I do think the triangle could play out some more and I am currently more willing to buy below 19200 than to short 19600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Changed two legged correction into 3 legs down, target is the same for now.
DAX30 ANALYSIS IN MONGOLIANMake market easier to read. Volume and Liquidity analysis on dax30
SINKorSWIM
DAX40The daily trend for the market is bullish overall, showing an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, though currently in a consolidation phase. Key support is around 19,100 - 19,200, suggesting possible accumulation, while resistance near 19,400 - 19,500 could act as a rejection zone. In contrast, the hourly trend has a bearish bias, with recent downtrend movement indicating a pullback within the broader daily trend. If the price breaks above 19,400, this could align the hourly trend with the daily bullish outlook, while a breakdown below 19,100 would signal a potential reversal or deeper pullback in both timeframes.
Summary
Bullish Scenario: If the price respects the 19,150 demand zone and moves upward, consider long positions with targets near 19,400 - 19,500.
Bearish Scenario: If the price faces rejection around 19,400 and breaks below 19,150, consider short positions with a target around 19,000.
Buy to Sell The index is currently pulling back up, after falling off once it nibbled closely to a previous higher high. As price action develops, a bearish move would be favourable if price remains below the 19600-19400 resistance barriers. A break and rejection above the mentioned barriers might see further upward momentum. Rejection and stability under, 19600 may potential see further decline.
GER40 (DE40, DAX) SETUP !!Let's see how this one plays.
“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading … I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.” — Victor Sperandeo
Fri 2024 11 08 - Short||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short
Stats Week:
** Wed US FOMC 20:00:,
Stats Month:
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Short,
* m45 close outside m45 BB Short
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as momentum at H3 D1 center,
GER40 there's still space for a scalpLong Position: Consider buying if price breaks and closes above 19,471, with a target near 19,700 and a stop-loss just below 19,400.
Short Position: Consider selling if price fails to break 19,400 resistance convincingly and starts showing bearish signals, targeting support at 19,000 with a stop-loss above 19,471.
TODAY WE HAVE Fed Interest Rate Decision
Likely To Expect a Mildly Positive Long Movement: The GER40 could benefit from a steady Fed rate, as it would stabilize global risk sentiment. A weaker USD could also support the Euro, potentially benefiting European equities. However, continued inflation concerns could raise expectations for tighter ECB policy, adding a layer of complexity.
GER40 Short There is a pattern on M15 and M30
This trade is with the H4 trend
triple top on all timeframes with divergence
stop loss of 100 pips
Aim to take half profit at oversold
DAX: European Markets and U.S. Elections.The German DAX index (Ticker AT: GER40) has been one of the most impacted by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, closing down 0.1% yesterday, Tuesday, along with the French CAC 40 and the UK's FTSE 100. At today's open, the index continued in negative territory, down -0.13% equivalent to -25.80 points. Currently, the DAX checkpoint stands at around 18,475 points, a level that could hold or even come under further pressure if Trump's re-election materializes, due to fears of protectionist tariff policies that would affect Germany's exporting economy.
Investors maintain a cautious stance, opting to wait for the election results before making important decisions, especially in sectors highly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policies. In addition, the election race has shown a weakened Kamala Harris in the polls, adding more volatility to market forecasts.
Monetary Policy Expectations
Monetary policy is another factor that is influencing movements in the DAX and European markets in general. The US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for this week could culminate in a rate cut of 25 basis points, which would relieve some of the pressure on global markets. The Bank of England is also scheduled to meet this Thursday and is expected to announce a similar rate cut in an effort to contain inflation and stabilize European markets.
European Corporate Results
Amid this uncertainty, quarterly earnings from European companies have brought slight relief to the market. Approximately 50% of STOXX 600 companies have already reported third quarter results, and many reports exceeded the market's low expectations. Among the highlights:
• Hugo Boss (Ticker AT: BOSS.G): Rallied 0.7% after slightly beating earnings expectations and confirming its annual outlook, despite declines in the Asia-Pacific region.
• AB Foods (Ticker AT: ABF.UK): Shares rose 2.8% after the Primark owner reported solid annual earnings growth, driven by higher revenues in its food and retail businesses.
• ASOS (LON:ASOS): Dropped 2% after reporting significant annual losses, although its CEO, Jose Antonio Ramos Calamonte, expressed optimism about the company's recovery.
Oil Prices
Oil prices, which affect key DAX sectors such as industrials and chemicals, stabilized after a sharp rally on Monday. Brent (Ticker AT: BRENT) reached USD 75.23 per barrel and WTI (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) USD 71.63, boosted by OPEC+'s decision to delay again a 180,000 barrel per day production increase in the face of weak global demand. This is the second extension of the 2.2 million barrels per day cut, an adjustment that producing countries consider necessary to maintain oil market stability. Today, oil prices have started the European trading day upwards, +0.27% for WTI and 0.25% for Brent respectively. It is very likely that these prices will extend to 72.23 USD for WTI and 76.01 USD for BRENT.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Watch out! If CAC dips below the trend line, so do the othersWarren Buffett Is selling stocks at a record pace and avoiding his favorite stock for the first time since 2018 (source: Yahoo Finance November 4, 2024)
Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs are sold out for the next 12 months — chipmaker to gain market share in 2025 (source: toms hardware October 11, 2024). THE GOOD NEWS IS NVDA is incredible; the bad news is that it is all priced in.
Weak jobs data can’t stop 10-year yield’s climb as stock-market rally lost steam (source: Marketwatch Nov. 1, 2024)
GER40 (German DAX) Potential Bullish Reversal and Key Levels AnaAnalysis Summary
Lower High (LH) and Strong High: The recent lower high (LH) formed near 19,650 shows where sellers pushed back strongly. This area is reinforced by a broader supply zone, indicating significant resistance if the price rises to test this level again.
Change of Character (CHoCH): Several CHoCH levels highlight shifts in short-term momentum, suggesting mixed sentiment. The recent CHoCH near 19,150 hints at the potential for a reversal to the upside, especially if buying pressure continues to build.
Support and Demand Zones: A large demand zone, marked in blue around 18,875 to 19,000, represents a strong support area. This zone may attract buyers if the price retraces downward, potentially providing a foundation for a bullish move.
Weak Low: The weak low at 19,000 indicates a vulnerable support level. If this level is breached, it could open the path to a deeper bearish move; however, if defended, it could act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Reversal: If the price continues to hold above or near the 19,000 demand zone, a bullish move targeting the resistance area around 19,250 to 19,300 (first resistance) and potentially the strong high near 19,650 (second resistance) is possible.
Downward Retracement: A short-term pullback into the demand zone (18,875–19,000) could attract additional buyers, especially if the price action shows signs of support. If the price sustains above this zone, it may confirm a reversal, leading to upward momentum.
Conclusion
GER40 shows potential for a bullish reversal if the demand zone around 19,000 is defended. Traders should monitor reactions around this zone, as a strong bounce could lead to higher levels, while a breakdown might lead to a further decline. Watch for bullish signals near the support areas for entry opportunities.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40
Germany 40 has shifted to a corrective phase but remains in a bullish trend. The price is now 19,223, having bounced off the 2SD channel it is still below the VWAP (20) of 19,430. Support is at 19,112, with resistance at 19,748. The RSI stands at 47, reflecting a more cautious sentiment within the bullish trend.
UK 100
The UK 100 just about remains neutral, but the break below the previous fractal lows around 8200 could be the start of a new downtrend. The price is currently 8,217, just below the VWAP (20) of 8,257. Support is located at 8,101, while resistance is at 8,413. The RSI is 46, indicating balanced momentum.
Wall Street
Wall Street is in a bullish but corrective phase, still above the VWAP bands. The current price is 42,021, below the VWAP (20) of 42,584. Support is at 41,596, and resistance is at 43,572. The RSI is 44, indicating waning momentum within the broader bullish trend.
Brent Crude
Brent Crude remains neutral, staying in a consolidation phase with limited directional bias. The price is 7,478, just above the VWAP (20) of 7,392. Support is located at 7,097, with resistance at 7,687. The RSI is 52, indicating slightly positive but generally balanced momentum.
Gold
Gold remains bullish in an impulsive phase despite a small pullback. The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern is one to watch for a trend reversal. The current price is 2,740, above the VWAP (20) of 2,719. Support is found at 2,644, and resistance is at 2,795. The RSI is 59, reflecting strong bullish momentum without overbought conditions.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has moved to a corrective phase but remains in a bearish trend. The price is 1.0898, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 1.0848 after gapping back above a bearish engulfing candlestick. Support is at 1.0765, with resistance at 1.0932. The RSI is 51, suggesting a pause in downward momentum.
G BP/USD
GBP/USD continues in a neutral consolidation phase with a slight bearish bias. The current price is 1.2960, close to the VWAP (20) of 1.2993. Support is at 1.2891, and resistance stands at 1.3094. The RSI is 43, showing mild downside pressure within the neutral trend.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains bullish in an impulsive phase. The current price is 151.88, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 151.28. Support is at 148.25, and resistance stands at 154.28. The RSI is 57, signalling ongoing bullish momentum within overbought conditions.
GER40 - TIME TO SEE THE DAX RECOVERTeam, Enter DAX at 19235-50
STOP LOSS AT 19220-19210
Target 1st at 19298
Target 2 at 19393-97
if you plan to take 50% at first target bring stop loss to BE
Today, we are going to risk 147, and reward 783 - LETS DO THIS
4R.. why not
2024-10-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - October is behind us and markets closed at the monthly lows. Clear sell signal going into November, since this is an amazing bear breakout. Markets are now in search for a intermediate bottom to form a proper channel. Most markets are also at bigger support and we can expect some more sideways to up movement before we get another impulse. That does not mean we can’t print another huge down day on Friday and have the pullback next week.
dax xetra
comment: Monthly chart shows a rejection at the top of multiple patterns and odds favor more downside over the next 1-2 months to have something of a pullback in this bubble. Weekly 20ema is around 18800, so only 200 points lower, which is reasonable to hit over the next days but we can’t expect that ema to be broken too easily. My rough target for November is 18000-18500. Daily chart shows huge bear gap bars and market needs some sideways to up movement soon.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend is over.
key levels: 18900 - 19400
bull case: Bulls running for the exits and want to take profits before they are gone. 19000 is a decent target for market to take a breather and move sideways to up. Targets for bulls are gap close to 19270, which is also the daily 20ema. 19400 is far but could happend. I can’t imagine anything above that for now. 18900 has to hold, otherwise we see a flush down to ~18340, which is the 50% pullback.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears are in full control of the market after 3 huge selling days. Volume is increasing and xetra has not touched the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. Bears can view this leg down as w1, which already had 3 nested legs down (1 per last 3 days). Some pullback and sideways movement is expected. If bears can keep this below 19300, that would show strength and w3 would accelerate down in that case, since bulls had no better relief. Next target is 18900 and below that is 18800 (weekly 20ema), below that is nothing until 18400.
Invalidation is above 19300.
short term: Bearish but more cautious and only selling pullbacks again. 18900/19000 should be bigger support. Expecting two more legs down in November, rough target is 18000.
medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: ~19170 was rejected many times and bears had enough chances to get on the short train. 19000 was obvious support and one should have covered there.
Next CAC40 (FCHI) index long moveThis seems to be a provable long scenario for the DE40 (GDAX) index in the short term after ending the current short move.
DAX TRADING IDEAHi again traders!
Here to bring you'all this idea about a bullish movement on DAX. Not a long term buy but a fast trade. The idea is to close it today before the market closes.
Why I think so?
The index has been on a three-day consecutive bearish movement. Dropping 500. After a manipulation, price seems to be holding on 5 minutes - 15 minutes frames, showing us a clear accumulation zone leaded by EMA9 and EMA50 ( 5 mins).
My potential profit is 104 points above the marked entry. Althought I think price is pumping on a few hours, could be possible to see a quick retracement before that.
