GER30We looking for buying opportunities as we are respecting the support zone with a bullish flag and double bottom formation
GER40 trade ideas
DAX H4 | Bearish momentum to extendThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,182.57 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,460.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 17,791.00 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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#202416 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Last week was expected until Wednesday, as markets mostly moved sideways. Two weeks ago I concluded the most recent bull trends had their trend lines broken and the daily 20emas also. Wednesday’s CPI print was a bit above forecast but reminded markets that maybe not all is well buying into the highs around the all time highs, while corporate profits stagnate or decline. Even Friday’s amazing bank earnings could not save the market from another bad Event sell off. Situation in the middle east seems to be escalating and which Fund wants to be max bullish when this happens? From a price action perspective, this is still just a pull back in bullish markets but since the bull trend was so overdone, climactic and way beyond historical averages, the pull back could be much more deeper than most bulls are comfortable with and that might be one of the reasons we are seeing more sell the rip (str) price action, than buy the dip (btd or BTFD). The volume on red days is also much higher than on advancing ones and the last time we reached those vol levels were during the deep pull back 2023-07 to 2023-10.
current market drivers
middle east: Big event which could lead to significant downside in the short term. If it isn’t as bad as estimated, could lead to big rebound. One of those things you can’t predict and can only play if your time frames are short and you are quick to exit positions.
earnings: Bank earnings were nothing short of amazing. Market rallied the last months like we are economically expanding and profits are rising like never before in history. Big big tail risk but as long as earnings don’t turn bad, markets will probably not care too much about them. Remember, your job as a trader is not to predict but to follow the market reaction. I thought earnings would come in softer and market would therefore sell off but they came in strong and market sold off nonetheless so I don’t care why my market thesis is right, I just put myself in a place to anticipate market movements and when they happen, I ride the wave in either direction.
second wave of inflation: Commodities are on a big rip and if Oil continues, after 90$, 100$ is next logical target. Hard to imagine prices not rising again on those levels.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bear case: My quote from last week tried to encourage you to wait for selling pressure before considering closing longer term longs or enganging in shorts. Market did just that with the beginning of April and we saw a 500 point drop in a two legged correction. Bears need to keep the selling pressure high and if they are strong, keep the bear small bear gaps on the 1h tf open. We are right above the daily 20ema and the lower bull channel line. If bears can get a close below 18250, that could trigger many long stops and the odds of more sideways to down rise significantly. Their next targets are 18250 and 18000 afterwards.
current market cycle: Bull trend - Market is still inside the bull channel and until clearly broken and a lower high below, it stays that way. Yet I do think there is a decent chance the high is in and the retest will be a lower high and the market is currently evolving into trading range before the bigger bear trend begins.
key levels: Strong support 18000 (expected) - 18810 (I can’t see market making another ath, if I had to guess, 18600 will be max if bulls manage to bounce)
bull case: 4 Pushes down on now and only 2 green bars on the daily chart. It’s a very tight bear channel down to 18000 on the daily chart and tight channels are never sustainable. Market is at the bull trend line from 2023-10 and unless the tail risks, especially the middle east situation, is bigger than expected, market will probably bounce. Bulls just have to buy strongly at they big round number here to prevent a flush down to 17600 or even 17000.
bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected.
outlook last week: “Sideways to up - Since markets mostly expect a retest of the extremes, the odds favor sideways and a retest. Range is probably 18250 - 18800 for now. If earnings on Tuesday are bad, this could go much lower much faster.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18433 and now we are at 18082. Again, not the worst outlook because I clearly gave the lower levels if bears could continue to sell off. I’m a little surprised of how fast we got here now, given that 2023-12 to 2023-01 took 21 (TWENTY ONE) trading days to do the same we did in 8.
short term: Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800.
medium-long term: Second bearish week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10.
I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part
Chart update: My preferred path is the green one (higher probability), despite my bearish outlook. If we continue to drop below 18000, this was most likely a W1 of a new bear trend.
GER30 Long Position Detailed Trade IdeaThis trade idea for FX:GER30 GER30 PEPPERSTONE:GER40 is sculpted with a bullish outlook, premised on the precision of Fibonacci levels and structured entries.
Technical Detail:
The setup has been meticulously planned with two Fibonacci retracement levels — 75% and 89% — serving as strategic scale-in entry points. These levels are not just numbers; they are reflections of potential psychological turning points where other traders are also likely to make decisions.
Trade Execution:
Initial Entry: Positioned at the 75% Fibonacci retracement level, this entry acknowledges the initial pullback and seizes the early signs of momentum shift.
Scale-In Entry: The 89% retracement level is our second entry point, providing a deeper value buy-in opportunity, reinforcing the bullish position as the price confirms its adherence to the Fib levels.
Risk Parameters:
Stop Loss: The stop loss is stationed beneath the lowest entry point, clearly delineated by the black line, guarding against any unexpected downward spirals.
Take Profit: The upper black line defines the take profit target, capturing the optimal exit point before the price potentially encounters sellers' resistance.
Trade Rationale:
This idea is crafted around the premise that the price, having respected the FVG and now hovering at critical Fibonacci levels, is primed for an upswing towards the designated take profit zone.
Conclusion:
As the GER30 flirts with these Fib levels, we stay vigilant, ready to engage with the market’s rhythm. It’s essential to adhere to the predefined risk management strategy and to adjust positions dynamically, all while keeping an eagle eye on market sentiment and related news that may impact the indices.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice but a strategic trading idea based on technical analysis. Trading involves risks and it is crucial to do your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor as needed.
De 15-19 Apr 24De 15-19 Apr 24
Hi guys,
This is a guideline for trading de40 next week.
Happy trading!
KS
outlook price is nearing a support zone therefore i would look for reversal patterns in lower time frames such as the 15 M AND 5 M
What i would like to see is bluish momentum entering the market then pushing price back up
DAX resting on major AVWAPLets watch for reaction off the AVWAP. Look for a sign of strength away (either direction) from AVWAP. The eventual direction from this point can help determine bias for future trades.
Volatility Indices Analysis (VIX10/VIX50/VIX75)Knowledge Required to nail these synthetic index pairs:
1, Good understanding of price Trend/directions
2, Absolute respect for Supports and Resistances
3, Knowledge of candle stick patterns
4, Discipline to use partial TP, SL
5, Discipline to wait for confirmations and only act when required
See the video for deeper understandinbg of VIX pairs.
Do you require support to make money using VIX pairs? check my profile for more.
BUY NOW German Index shifting bullish gears. Price gave me a signal to buy.
As you can see. the 1-Hour market structure made a new higher high by breaking previous higher low signaling market shifting to bullish once again.
Stop loss at the recent lows.
Targeting 18750.
GER30 - Look for a short ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GER30.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I want price to make a retracement and then to reject from trendline + S/R zone for a sell position.
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Germany 40 IndexPair : Germany 40 Index
Description :
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Breakout of Lower Trend Line
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Lower Lows - Lower Highs
Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame
Bearish Channel IdentifiedThe DAX (DE40) is trading within a bearish channel and is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Could this index stall around this level before potentially reversing to resume the downtrend?
Pivot: 18,203.60
1st Support: 17,888.30
1st Resistance: 18,422.50
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lon on ger40Ger40 shows more bullish sign but patience is key in our line of work. i see a long on ger40
Ger30 GER30 has shown signs of resistance near key levels, indicating potential weakness in the market.
DAX Started a correction. We have a clear short-term Target.DAX has a rejection on April 01 exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 18-month Channel Up (since October 03 2022). The 1D MACD made a Bearish Cross, being Lower High than the previous one on December 18 2023, which is exactly what happened on the January 27 2023 Bearish Cross.
That sequence was the first Bullish Leg that topped to form the Channel's Higher High and then pulled-back to marginally below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and even test the previous Resistance, which turned Support eventually.
As a result, we remain bearish on DAX, targeting at least 17700 (Fib 0.236). The previous Resistance is at 17000 but we will update if that Target will be pursued. The safest action would be to wait for the 1D MACD to form a Bullish Cross under the 0.0 level and buy for the long-term.
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DAX COURT SHORTHello everyone, I'm aiming for a bearish continuation for the DAX, I'd like to fill the bottom.
DAX Looking to do Double CorrectionCycle from 10.23.20223 low in DAX is in progress as an impulse Ellliott Wave structure. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 17003.28 and wave 2 pullback ended at 16345.02. The Index rallied higher again in wave 3 towards 18567.16. Pullback in wave 4 is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 18275.94 and wave (b) ended at 18427.43. Wave (c) lower ended at 18088.03 which completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((x)) ended at 18326.37 and the Index has turned lower again.
Down from wave ((x)), wave (w) ended at 18058.22 and wave (x) ended at 18239.50. The Index turns lower again in wave (y). Expect the Index to extend lower to reach the extreme area from 4.2.2024 high towards 17550.24 – 17733.23. This should complete wave (y) of ((y)) of 4. Afterwards, Index should rally from the blue box in wave 5 higher or rally in 3 waves at least. Near term, while below 18328.11, Index may see further downside to the blue box area.
GER30 BULL ALREADY TAKING OVER.As we see price breaking out the bearish channel with some strong momentum based on the pattern formed DOUBLE BOTTOM.
Is the German stock market gaining strength?📊 In the one-hour time frame, due to the decrease in the downward momentum of the price movement, in case of the failure of the upward downward movement trend of the price and stabilization of the price above the range of 18,220 units, there is a possibility of the price increase up to the range of 18,300 units🎯, and in the case of the strength of the range of 18,400 units🎯🎯.
📊 Otherwise, the price may fall to the range of 18,000 units.
DAX daily showing signs of churn, but shorter-term supportedThe DAX daily chart is showing signs of consolidation, but the short-term market participants are constructive.
IF the short-term momentum holds, there will be something to work with.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
GER30 BULLISH FORECAST So here price failed to break the previous low creating a possible double bottom, wait for the price to break outside the bearsih channel retest then we go for those buys..
SHORT THE DAXSell short at the level 1:3 or trail profit. Level could have trapped trader or more greed institutions to sell short again at this level
Ger30 Forecast 10/10 Price respected our analysis and am currently holding the trades...Still trading within the bearish channel.
