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GER40 trade ideas

#DAX - 4 MarOn Friday we saw a change in the strength of DAX as it hit new ATH but came down after while US indices was stronger and rallied to ATH after. Some rotation that is, given how DAX was rallying the days prior, while US indices, especially on Thursday, dipped and recovered, setting up for the continuation on Friday. DAX I gave a long from bottom of PZ but DAX hit the mid of PZ and recovered 70points. Price is opening at the PZ now. Overall we can see weekly price action is bullish so could see further upside this week, but I am not discounting a possible pullback first. A pullback to 17459 will still not change the trend. Daily wise, bearish divergence so could be sign for a pullback. Could do a short below 17753 PZ, or wait for the longs after a pullback. Target for short would beg to 17629/47 which is a strong level, and would give an opportunity to look for longs for a move higher. If market continue to go up from here, I would like to take a counter trend short at 17845 back to PZ.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by FadeMeIfYouCan
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. I let my thoughts go wild this week so have my tl;dr here: tl;dr: IMO this is the end of the long ongoing bull trend we had and the climactic moves at the end are not as rare as many think. That does not help you with shorts right now. Scalp long where big or many consecutive bull bars appear and wait for bears to show up again. I think we are very close to the end. Do. Not. Short. Yet. For the people who bear my writing… I dare you to find me an extremer example of a more climactic move at the end of a long ongoing trend than this one. US markets have reasonable trend lines and channels which they respect but the dax is just in a parabolic up move without stopping. Which makes me think everyone and their dog was/is short and covering, fueling the fire. But i will die on that hill, that this is the end of the bull trend and not the beginning of a new one. I called the -30% (at least) drop for this year and i stick to that. I try to keep to price action for my trading as much as i can and most macro news are not affecting the market as most people think they do. Now comes the but. I live in Germany and we are in an economic downtrend with very high rates compared to the last 14 years. Find someone which company says they are hiring extensively and outlooks are raised. DM me then please. Markets are a casino in the short term but Macroeconomics (i like to call it macro schmackro) will catch up eventually. It always has and always will. One very clear indicator, which everyone knows and rarely listens to are people around you after a trend has been going on for quite some time. Goes as follows: You hear colleagues, neighbors, granny and your dead dog talking about markets only going ti*ts up and options are the name of the game. Crypto is yes yes yes buybuybuy. Then you look at the chart and see that it has been going up for a long long time. That’s where these trends end. Something news worthy will come up on the horizon and you can be sure many people who will lose their savings, pension and whatnot over the next 2 years. This was and always will be a boom bust cycle. The bust probably does not go below some pre-bust levels but it will bust as it always has. Does that mean i call to short this and the high is in? Well, i thought the late December price action formed a credible top but on the weekly it was a rather small pullback. You simply can’t short into this if you can’t take the pain. Markets are giving no signal that the highs are in, so you should scalp long and wait for markets to become more two sided. dax Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls probably want to touch that big green bull trend line at around 17500 which is pretty far fetched imo. Market is still not accepting anything above 17100 and bulls took profits going into the weekend. I think the low probability breakout above happened and trapped many traders who sold everything above 17100, which worked since mid December. Probably exhaustion but bears need to prove that early next week. bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. bear case: Easier to have bear targets but bears have done nothing this week so everything i write here is low probability and you should only look for these targets when bears clearly show strength and making lower highs and lower lows. First target is a 1h close below Fridays open 17442 and the 1h 20ema is around there too. 17400 was tested multiple times on Friday and i think we could range there first. For the very low probability of a big sign of strength by the bears and a sell-off below 17380, next would be the uber monster bullish gap 17160 which is also my thesis for the exhaustion gap. My bearish thesis only lives if we close the next week below 17000 because the monthly close is the most important thing now for bears. If bulls close above 17400, it is a clear buy signal for higher time frame traders/algo's and it means acceptance. We had two daily closes above my invalidation target and if bulls can keep this gap open, we see higher prices. outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 17461 and now we are at 17775. i said sideways to up but it was only up. not the worst outlook but the extend of the up can only be surprising to anyone short term: neutral is the only reasonable thing here. after so many buy climaxes without more pullback, the odds of continuation drop to almost impossible. does that mean we go down from here? hell no. it’s just very low probability that this can continue without a meaningful pullback. but these things happen and they can go on for longer than most can stay solvent. if bears won’t shop up, scalp long where bulls show strength. medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. I have drawn 2 possible paths and the bearish one is the one i think will play out. maybe not time-wise but price-wise.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX: Next week could be the top. Downside more than -6% possibleDAX is approaching the 16 month HH Zone while being vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 76.873, MACD = 201.900, ADX = 41.880). The 1D CCI shows that we may be entering a period of volatility similar to what followed after the May 19th 2023 High, which initially resulted into a -6.42% correction. Based on that, our bearish target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,850). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. I repeated the importance of the monthly close today because my thesis is still that the sp500 e-mini needs daily closes above 5100 for this not being the final move of an unbelievably climactic move. February closed at 5096.5. Does that make my thesis right and we sell off from here? Probably not. Markets mostly going nowhere except for the dax and we need a bigger move with follow through for a new direction. dax Quote from yesterday: short term: same as last days - btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up We got same as last days. Higher high and close at the highs. Nothing is stopping this. Every pullback is bought and buying the 1h 20ema is a profitable strategy for 2 straight weeks. I honestly think we are a couple of days away from funds closing because they kept shorting this. Please forgive my lack of enthusiasm to go deeper into price action for this index. It’s beyond climactic and i think any bigger profit taking could trigger an avalanche of stops because no one want’s to be left holding the bag. Still, for now, it’s only going up and could continue longer than anyone would think. Side note: I dare you to find another example for the Dax where it gained more points on declining GDP figures. Disclaimer: I do think financial markets are nothing but the biggest casino in the world, short term. Long term obviously, fundamentals win. But the extend of this move into this economic outlook and reported figures left and right is beyond anything and i already accounted for a big blow off top and a climactic move on top but this exceeds it by far. bull case: btfd. bear case: none. short term: up and this only changes once we stop making higher highs and start making lower lows again medium-long term: bulls closed the month at the highs and my medium-long term targets were way off and i was early in December to call this top. Maybe it tops at 18000, maybe not. trade of the day: same as last 2 weeks, buy everything around the 1h 20ema
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you follow the dax and maybe some German economic indicators or listen to the German word on the street, you are probably wondering how on earth this market can go higher and print daily new ath’s. Welp, all traders see it's overbought but it still keeps going up. This is absolutely the blow off top and the end of this move and it will soon be over. I have zero doubt about it and we will see at least -30% this year. Feel free to rub it in my face when i have been wrong at the end of the year. Most other indexes are ranging at the highs and bulls are still in btfd mode. Don't over commit to shorts and play the range. Quote from my weekend outlook: bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. bull case: Not much to add here. Until we see higher selling pressure and stop making new daily all time highs, the music will continue. Next time profit taking starts, we will see a -2% / -3% day. bear case: Just nothing. All red bars are probably from bulls taking profits and not bears shorting. 17530 is the first bear target. short term: btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up. i am neutral here and scalp only long until bears show strength medium-long term: strong break above everything with follow through, can’t deny higher prices and no one knows when the squeeze will end. still waiting for the monthly close to give new targets. i’m still holding long term dax shorts which are obviously deep deep red. trade of the day: just a relentless bull trend from the open. no reason anywhere to exit longs
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX Forecast: Exploring Wave Patterns and Correction Scenarios🌍German DAX Analysis Taking another look at the German benchmark index, the DAX XETR:DAX , our scenario remains unchanged. If we don't breach the 18,000 EUR mark, we anticipate continuing with Wave IV, which is expected to range between 10,000 € and a maximum of 7,500 €, depending on the potential overshoot of Wave (B). This scenario will be invalidated if we surpass the 138 % level. Zooming into the 4-hour chart, we observe the formation more closely, potentially shaping Wave ((b)) that is currently in development. The 1-hour chart gives us an even closer view, indicating we are precisely in this phase of Wave ((b)). Crossing over 17,218 € would likely invalidate our current scenario, prompting a reevaluation of where Wave (B), marked in blue, could be located—potentially moving towards 17,500 € or up to 18,000 €. Should there be a turn at this juncture, we might see a flat correction, an overshooting flat moving down towards Wave ((c)) or Wave 1. After reaching the 127-138 % range, this phase should conclude with a 5-wave cycle downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
GRX Possible Trend Before Than Major Correctionthe detail is shown in the above Chart. I made this Idea based on Candlestick Analysis and Harmonic pattern. For clarity, the Harmonic pattern is not drawn in the above chart. We Expect that Grx Cannot Rise Up in three Level 1.27 and 1.618 Specially 2 As an engineer and manager, I deal almost daily with Siemens HV protective equipment and advanced automation equipment I love DAX because Of Siemens. Candles Patterns in The Green Region Define Sellers Target . I try to share with You my Updates for this Idea .
FOREXCOM:GER40
by SEYED98
Weekly Technical Analysis 26/02/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,051. The index finds support at 16,678 and faces resistance near 17,340. The RSI stands at 68, indicating a positive momentum and approaching overbought territory. UK 100 is in the impulsive phase of a neutral trend with its price above the flat 20-period VWAP of 7,634.3. The index's support level is at 7,504.6, with resistance at 7,763.9. The RSI is at 56, suggesting a slightly bullish momentum. Wall Street is in an impulsive phase of a bullish trend, highlighted by its price above the upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,613. The support for this index is at 38,111, with resistance at 39,106.1. The RSI is at 65, indicating strong positive momentum. Brent Crude is consolidating in a neutral trend, with its price slightly below the flat 20-period VWAP of 81.01. The support level is at 77.84, with resistance near 84.19. The RSI is at 47, indicating a neutral momentum with a slight bearish bias. Gold is consolidating in a neutral trend, with its price just above the flat 20-period VWAP of 2,022 but close to it. The support level is at 1,994, with resistance at 2,050. The RSI at 55 indicates a neutral momentum, suggesting the market is assessing direction. EUR/USD is in the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with the price above its down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0781. The support is at 1.0715, with resistance at 1.0846. The RSI at 54 indicates a bearish bias but with potential for slight upward movement. GBP/USD is consolidating in what has been a weak bearish trend, with the price above the flat-to-down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.2618. Support is found at 1.2548, with resistance at 1.2689. The RSI at 55 suggests a bearish outlook but with room for slight upward movement. USD/JPY is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price above the 20-period VWAP of 149.64, having recently probed above the upper StdDev #2. The support level is at 147.87, with resistance at 151.41. The RSI is at 64, indicating strong bullish momentum.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
Pullback Expected in German DAXLike most other major indices, the DAX has also reached new highs in recent months. Currently, the chart pattern is tempering overly bullish enthusiasm: the last bull surge was met with significant sell-offs by the end of the trading session, and the RSI in the daily chart is showing clear bearish divergence. Not only is the RSI showing these divergences, but also the Moving Average. Therefore, we are holding off on long entries for now and expect a correction to the area around 16,810 points. Here, we would enter long positions again and anticipate further upward movement towards around 17,550 points. Subsequently, in our estimation, a significant correction is likely to follow, potentially bringing the DAX to new yearly lows.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by Ochlokrat