a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
If you are a regular reader, you know by now, that i’m the first to acknowledge and point out my errors. I’m tougher on myself than the internet could ever be. Today was another humbling day for bearish takes on the market. One would think the odds for deeper pullbacks rise with each consecutive buy climax. Not today anyhow. Having invalidation prices for your market take is crucial for survival of your account and always have a stop in place. At the end of trends the odds of an exhaustive move are high. You can see this on higher time frames as on lower ones. This parabolic move today has a very high probability of being one but bears need to show strength soon.
dax
bull case: Very strong day and odds favor the bulls because they are in control and we are making higher highs. That’s the reality. Can bears print big bear bars and take over to reverse the whole day? Yeah i think so but it’s low probability. Bulls bought low and we are very high again. It’s also true that the last weeks bulls weren’t eager to buy into new highs and the pullbacks we got, got bigger. So tomorrow would be interesting to see if bulls can close above 17400 or not. Measured move from today’s spike (we had a spike-pullback bull trend today) is 17600.
bear case: Bears will try to sell the highs again because the last couple of days/weeks they made money doing so. They need to trade down to a potential neckline 17290 and then form a higher low before they have a decent chance of lower prices.
short term: down to sideways - pullback is expected but bulls are in control. higher prices are possible but i think sideways is the most likely outcome for tomorrow
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17200 - bulls got one and another would change my mind until i see the monthly close. i still expect this Februar to close below 17000 but it’s far away
trade of the day: long since globex open bar 2 because marked gapped up and never looked back. could have bought every pullback coming close to the 15 20ema also. after bar 29-32, there was 75% of a bull trend day and higher prices and one should not look for shorts after such a strong move until bears clearly took control and for that they have to break bull trend lines and trade below the ema - the higher the time frame the more reliable
