DAX40 ANALYSIS**DAX 40 ANALYSIS**
***Structure*** The 1 hour chart is quite clear in my opinion, the bullish trend is proceeding nicely and steady, with a few drops here and there that only constitute great opportunities to go long once again.
***Liquidity*** Price has now formed the dynamic liquidity trendline below the lows, it’s been a while since price has taken out some liquidity to fuel future movements and is quite clear how slower the trend is getting. The tank is almost empty, I think it’s time to drop now to take out some of the lows created in the past few days to fuel the next bullish movement.
***Demand*** we have 2 clear levels marked on our chart, the yellow zone and the gray zone. They’re both great levels in my opinion, the aggressive of course would grant you a better risk to reward, but price may never come that deep.
The aggressive area looks more interesting in my eyes, but as usual, I will be waiting for confirmation on the 5 min chart, I’m talking about the usual trigger (bullish break, liquidity grab).
***Positioning*** In case you try the aggressive zone ( entry price at: 16864.0) the stop should be placed right below the demand zone, at 16829.0.
Whilst if you want to wait for the more conservative zone, placed in the 16800.0 area, the stop should be placed below the lows, at 16729.0.
***Targets*** As usual, we take partials and move to breakeven once our trade reaches the 1:3 Risk to Reward, then we can leave it running to test the local highs at 17150.0
@everyone
GER40 trade ideas
German40 time to go time For a long time smart money has been waiting to take out the 17000 liquidity zone. Went in, and was rejected by a long body wick on the 1H time frame. Today it reached new highs at 17050. There is nothing neither technically, or fundamentally that should keep the index going up. Earnings season is over. Germany farmers are protesting. Inflation is high. Geopolitical tention continues to go up evey day. Entered short term with SL 50 pips above the shadow of the wick and short term take profit. RR 1:10
DAX to follow the US positive price action?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17066.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Our outlook is bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 16966.
The measured move target is 17184.
We look to Buy at 16970 (stop at 16890)
Our profit targets will be 17170 and 17250
Resistance: 17066 / 17100 / 17200
Support: 17000 / 16930 / 16850
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GER40 In A Strong Bullish TrendGER40 In A Strong Bullish Trend
GER40 keeps rising and now it is creating a new all-time higher again.
The bullish trend is very strong and it looks unstoppable.
After the price broke out from the big pattern it proved that we had very strong bullish volume
positioned near 16800 and now the price is only rising.
It is normal to move slowly at these zones but we can see it rising even more.
For the moment I am focused on 17300 as a maximum move.
After that we have to see what will happen again.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear breakout or you don’t trade at all.
dax
Groundhogs day. Bears tried and bulls bought it. Bears stepped aside enough then to let Dax print a new high for the year. Biggest question right now is this: Was the move today strong enough for another leg up and a new ath? I doubt it but i think it’s higher probability than trading below 16800.
bull case: Bulls are still in BTFD mode and they made a new high for 2024. A measured move target from today’s move would bring us above 17300 and i think this is more probable than bears showing strength and bringing this below 16800. 16950 is big support and at least a retest of the ath at 17199 is my base case.
bear case: Bears see it as a double top with the January high at 17120. They want to continue inside the range 16950 - 17100 but they are weak and quick to take profits. Until bulls stop with BTFD, you should not bet on a bear breakout below given range. I still think my thesis for the blow off top and a quick drop is valid and the next bear cycle can begin.
short term: sideways to up
medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs
trade of the day: BTFD. I hate repeating it but market currently does exactly the same
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 07/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
GER40Trading is nuanced and requires as much art as science to execute successfully, which means that there is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade.
GERMANY 40 SELL
I want to try this sell, in my opinion probable reversal.
The real key regardless of any strategy is to have a decent risk/reward .
You win and you lose , so be cautious.
No financial advice, do your own research.
SHORT IDEAMy bias shifted to the shortside, following the movement lower in the New York Session yesterday.
Targets and annotations made in the chart. 16825 possible short targets.
expecting the follow through lower during the New York Open.
Key anticipation: London Medium News driver as the catalyst lower.
Key levels and annotations made on the chart.
Once the stop level of 16996.3 is breached, the idea is invalidated.
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
Germany 30 IndexPair : Germany30
Description :
Impulse Correction Impulse
Symmetrical Triangle as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Rejection from Lower Trend Line
Completed Break of Structure and Retracement
Elliot Waves - " 1234 " Impulsive Waves Done
DAX - Gap close intraday XETR:DAX - The gap-up at the beginning was immediately closed again. Yesterday's previous day's range was almost completely filled. A fall below the previous day's low at 16859 could accelerate the downtrend intraday and target the lower #BouhmidiBand at 16784 next.
The continuation of the trend is likelyDear Friends,
I hope this message finds you well and that you're having a great start to the week. I wish you success in your business endeavors.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it a valuable tool for analyzing the market. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
I am sharing my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. I aim to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions.
The first analysis is Litecoin
In the attachment, you will find my previous analysis of the same market, so you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily).
I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished.
Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
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Weekly Technical Analysis 05/02/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP.
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves.
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price above its 20-period VWAP of 16,754. The index finds support at 16,417 and faces resistance near 17,091. The RSI stands at 57, indicating a positive momentum but not yet overbought.
UK 100 is navigating from bearish to bullish conditions after a big impulsive move higher, with its price positioned well above the down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 7,560.4. The index's support level is at 7,411.3, with resistance at 7,709.5. The RSI is at 54, suggesting a moderate bullish momentum.
Wall Street is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, highlighted by its price well above the 20-period VWAP of 37,921. The support for this index is at 37,064, with resistance at 38,778. The RSI is at 66, pointing towards strong bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory.
Brent Crude is in the impulsive phase of a bearish trend, with its price below the 20-period VWAP of 79.48. The support level is at 75.33, with resistance near its current price at 83.64. The RSI is at 41, indicating bearish momentum with potential for further downside.
Gold is also in the corrective phase of a neutral trend, with its price slightly below the 20-period VWAP of 2,032. The support level is at 2,007, with resistance at 2,056. The RSI at 45 indicates a neutral to bearish momentum, suggesting the market is assessing direction.
EUR/USD is experiencing the impulsive phase in a bearish trend, with the price below the 20-period VWAP of 1.0862. The support is at 1.0764, with resistance at 1.09601. The RSI at 34 indicates a strong bearish bias, suggesting potential for further declines.
GBP/USD is breaking lower from a neutral trend in a new impulsive move, with the price below the 20-period VWAP of 1.2691. Support is found at 1.2612, with resistance at 1.2769. The RSI at 38 suggests a bearish outlook, with room for downward movement.
USD/JPY is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price above the 20-period VWAP of 147.45. The support level is at 145.64, with resistance at 149.27. The RSI is at 63, indicating strong bullish momentum and potential for continued upward trend.
LONG IDEAAnticipating a movement higher to the close today. My bias is leaning heavily on the long side.
Observing for a possible shift on lower timeframes for bullish momentum. Expecting momentum Pre-NY Open
Annotations and possible key levels are in the chart with entry on 16904.9.
Idea is invalidated once the protective stop level has been breached.
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
DAX wakes up and starts the week with a joltThe DAX index wakes up to extremely negative German export data , while the German trade balance for December benefits from Christmas orders. Crucial data is expected this morning: the January PMI in Germany (slight decline expected) and in the Eurozone (expected to remain unchanged). In addition, UK and US PMI could impact the day.
From a technical point of view, the index has formed a bullish shift in the 1-4 hour range since January 17 , anticipating a rebound towards the mid-zone in the direction of 17.022. However, a bearish impact could trigger a bearish breakout looking for 16,345. The key area for the index this month is 17,034 points, having already experienced three previous bounces and becoming the area to beat during this month to see a clear continuation in the channel. If so, it could already head towards 17335, or break once, and again the bullish milestones obtained so far in a strong correction towards 15935. This week is not expected to be as relevant, and the market is relatively bullish on the index, which has been at its highs since its Christmas rally.
On Friday, a cross of averages occurred, marking the positive signal of the 34-day averages crossing over the 84-day averages, indicating optimism, although the crossing with the 233-day average is not expected yet, so a continuation is foreseeable. The RSI divergence indicator suggests a move towards overbought, indicating a possible continuation. The opening of the US market will be crucial, as the fluctuation of the dollar can significantly affect the index.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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DE40 entry point 29 Jan -2 FEB 24DE40 entry point 29 Jan -2 FEB 24
This clip included all the entry points that I made from 29 Jan - 2 Feb 24.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 05/02/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
DAX - Chartbook Bouhmidi-Reversal DAX started today with an opening gap and broke through the previous day's high. However, the leading index showed weakness after failing to conquer the upper #BouhmidiBand and initiated a chartbook Bouhmidi reversal. It looks like the intraday gap may be closed.
DAX Near Term Support AreaShort Term Elliott Wave view in DAX suggests the rally from 10.23.2023 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 10.23.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 17003.28. Wave 2 pullback subdivided into a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((w)) ended at 16448.71 and wave ((x)) rally ended at 16839.49. Wave ((y)) lower subdivided into a zigzag like the 30 minutes chart below shows. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 16542.99 and wave (b) ended at 16752.24. Wave (c) lower ended at 16348.28 which completed wave ((y)) of 2 in higher degree.
Index has resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 16705.49 and wave (ii) ended at 16607.72. Wave (iii) higher ended at 16967.72 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 16860.05. Wave (v) higher ended at 16999.58 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 16825.43 and wave (x) ended at 16915.92. Expect wave (y) to extend lower to reach 16644.48 – 16747.95 area to complete wave (y) of ((ii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 16348.28 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 02/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. In the lower time frame, the primary scenario suggests that wave 4 as a WXY structure is in.
ICT SILVER BULLETMay be swinging this LongTime. Waited for the retrace back to an imbalance then a continuation of the earlier downtrend to take out the SSL.
GER40 sell ideaAs we saw yesterday when Google dropped -6% and Fed interest stayed the same. Are we seeing first signs of recession starting to fuel up or not? Maybe, maybe not. Anyways, right now on GER40 waiting for a retracement and then looking to execute.
