NAS100 NAS100 – Still Holding the Range, Sell Patience Needed Price continues to hold the 22,680–22,700 support zone on the 1H chart, with repeated rejection wicks and buyer absorption showing up in both CVD and footprint data. Sellers are struggling to break below — suggesting potential accumulation or a trap setup.
I'm not shorting here — this is support, not resistance.
📌 The ideal sell zone remains at 22,860–22,880, where: – Prior swing high meets low-volume inefficiency – Liquidity likely sitting for breakout traps – Potential for reversal if price stalls with divergence
Trade plan: → Wait for push into 22,880 with rejection → Look for CVD divergence + sell imbalances → Then consider short targeting 22,700 → 22,520 → No setup = no trade
Until then, I’m standing aside on shorts. Price still has fuel to probe higher before real supply appears.
🤔Why Volatility Dropped — But CPI Tension Just Rose NAS100USDSPX500USD 📆 Tuesday, July 08 | 🕒 7PM GMT / 2PM NY 📍 Macro events + flow structure into NY close
📦 What’s Played Out: ✅ CPI-linked coil → SPX/NDX chop confirms unresolved structure ✅ Implied vol drop on surface — but curve decompressing beneath ✅ Used car prices reversed MoM trend: +1.6% / YoY +6.3% — CPI pressure building ✅ No clean flow above 6,275 on SPX → upside capped
📉 Key Data Prints: • NFIB Business Optimism: 98.6 — soft trend continues • Redbook YoY: 🔺 5.9% — strong consumer base • Used Car Prices: 🔺 +1.6% MoM, +6.3% YoY — last print was deflationary • Inflation Expectations: 🔻 3.0% vs 3.2% — modest easing • 3Y Auction: 🔻 3.891% vs 3.972% — strong front-end demand • API Crude: 🛢️ +0.68M vs –2.8M — reverses expected draw
📊 Flow & Structure Notes (NDX 15m): • Heavy sell-side structure between 22,800–22,850 • Multiple fades into that zone, no break resolution yet • Below 22,750: compression, thin liquidity, and skew building • Macro context: Flow diverging from sentiment — still no breakout fuel
🧠 Today’s Net Read: • SPX above 6,200 remains valid — but no upside follow-through • NDX stalled again under 23K — overhead supply visible intraday • Gold remains soft, BTC flat — no rotation into hedges • VIX falls –5%, but VX2! decompresses = volatility mispricing possible
🎯 Tactical Markers: • SPX: 6,233 → coiling under key breakout zone • NDX: 22,741 → compression holding under 22,800 • BTC: 108,896 → within neutral structure • VIX: 16.84 → very low — but caution warranted • VX2!: 19.70 → decompressing — could unwind quickly
📌 Watch Into CPI: 🟢 Upside if NDX breaks >22,775 with range hold 🔻 SPX fade risk if 6,275 caps again 🛢️ Energy complex vulnerable to API/EIA divergence
🧠 Stay Light. Stay Patient. CPI is the release valve.
Best Wishes and Success to All 🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances. 💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate. 🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope. 🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research. 🎯 Summary posts only. Full context via DM
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice. 📉 Sentiment data reflects futures positioning as of July 08 (reported July 08)
NAS100USD As shared earlier today, the market really does respect structure, our role is to understand how it will interact with that structure.
Best Wishes and Success to All 🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances. 💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate. 🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope. 🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational 🎯 Summary posts only. Full context via DM
USTEC All profit of my gold long trade is deleted but the trade is still open and I will still keep it open unless 30 min candle closes under 3283 (in my trading journey I got used to see that often with swing trades that the market goes against the direction which is meant to go there to force traders to close their position and after that, the trade goes in the right direction or to force some traders to change their bias) My short trade on US 100 is definitely open and this one is in profit still
Not the best day so far as my Gold trade is almost on break even and my short on US 100 is on profit but not so much (opened from 22850)
Nothing to be done from my side except monitoring what is coming!
NAS100 NAS100 – Still Holding the Range, Sell Patience Needed
