US Dollar Index Technical AnalysisSell Stop Sweep, Support, Trend-line break ...
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USDX trade ideas
Bullish Setup: DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)🟢 Entry Zone: 104.10 – 104.30
🔴 Stop Loss: 102.90 (below the key demand zone)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
✅TP1: 105.00 (initial resistance, suitable for partials)
✅TP2: 106.00 (recent structure high)
✅TP3: 107.50 (extended target on sustained momentum)
🔍 Technical Context:
• Strong reaction from the 103.00–103.50 demand zone, which has acted as major support since November
• Bullish MACD crossover underway, with histogram flipping positive — early trend reversal signal
• RSI recovering from oversold territory, suggesting renewed bullish momentum
• Price retesting and reclaiming the 9 EMA — a common trigger level for trend shifts
• Potential higher low formation after a sharp corrective wave — signaling strength building under the surface
A daily close above 104.30 would confirm the breakout and open the door for a push toward the 106–107.50 zone.
$DXY IdeiaFor the DXY, we expect the week to remain bullish, driven by the ongoing correction after a significant price drop. Our expectation is that the upward movement will extend to the weekly key level premium.
This bullish outlook is reinforced by several factors. First, we observed a bottom SMT with GU, followed by a market structure break on the daily chart. Additionally, the H4 timeframe has shown continuation purges, where lows are rejected, indicating buying strength. Finally, we identified a bearish SMT in bond yields, providing a strong indication that we are following the correct direction.
DXY Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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How Worrying is the Weakening Dollar? A Departure from TraditionThe value of a nation's currency is a critical barometer of its economic health and global standing.1 Typically, in times of international turmoil or economic uncertainty, the U.S. dollar, as the world's reserve currency, tends to strengthen.2 This "safe-haven" effect is driven by increased demand for the dollar as investors seek stability and liquidity. However, recent trends have seen the greenback exhibit a notable weakening, even amidst persistent global anxieties.3 This begs the crucial question: how worrying is this deviation from the norm, and what are the potential implications for the U.S. and the global economy?
To understand the significance of a weakening dollar, it's essential to first recognize the factors that typically influence its strength. These include interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, the overall performance of the U.S. economy relative to others, trade balances, and geopolitical stability.4 Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar and thus its value.5 Strong economic growth similarly boosts confidence in the currency.6 Conversely, high inflation erodes the dollar's purchasing power, while a significant trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can indicate an oversupply of the currency in global markets, leading to depreciation.
Historically, during periods of global crisis, the dollar has often acted as a port in a storm. Events like geopolitical conflicts, financial market meltdowns in other regions, or global pandemics have typically triggered a "flight to safety," with investors flocking to the perceived security and liquidity of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, thereby strengthening the currency.7 This was evident during past crises, where the dollar often appreciated as investors sought refuge from volatility elsewhere.
The current weakening of the dollar, therefore, raises eyebrows precisely because it seemingly contradicts this established pattern. While global uncertainties persist – ranging from ongoing geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world to concerns about the pace of global economic growth – the dollar has not consistently exhibited its traditional strengthening behavior. This departure suggests that underlying factors might be at play, potentially signaling deeper concerns about the U.S. economic outlook or the dollar's long-term standing.
One potential reason for this weakening could be a shift in relative economic strength. If other major economies are perceived to be on a stronger growth trajectory or offering more attractive investment opportunities, capital might flow away from the dollar, putting downward pressure on its value. For instance, improvements in economic prospects in the Eurozone or emerging markets could lead investors to diversify their holdings, reducing their reliance on the dollar.
Furthermore, concerns about the U.S.'s fiscal health, including rising national debt and persistent budget deficits, could also contribute to dollar weakness. While the dollar's reserve currency status has historically provided a buffer, a sustained period of fiscal imbalance could eventually erode investor confidence in the long-term value of the currency.8
Another factor to consider is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While higher interest rates typically support a stronger dollar, expectations of future rate cuts or a more accommodative monetary stance could dampen investor enthusiasm for dollar-denominated assets. If the market anticipates that the Fed will need to lower rates to support economic growth or combat deflationary pressures, this could lead to a weakening of the dollar.9
The implications of a weakening dollar are multifaceted and can have both positive and negative consequences for the U.S. economy. On the positive side, a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive in international markets, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers.10 This could potentially boost U.S. manufacturing and help to narrow the trade deficit. Additionally, a weaker dollar can increase the value of earnings that U.S. multinational corporations generate in foreign currencies, as these earnings translate into more dollars when repatriated.
However, the downsides of a weakening dollar can be significant. Firstly, it makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers and businesses.11 This can lead to higher prices for a wide range of goods, potentially fueling inflation.12 For businesses that rely on imported components or raw materials, a weaker dollar can increase their costs of production, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.
Secondly, a sustained weakening of the dollar could erode its status as the world's reserve currency. While this is a long-term prospect, a decline in the dollar's dominance could have significant implications for the U.S.'s ability to borrow cheaply and exert influence in the global financial system.13
Thirdly, a weakening dollar could lead to concerns among foreign investors holding U.S. assets, such as Treasury bonds. If they anticipate further depreciation of the dollar, they might become less inclined to hold these assets, potentially leading to higher U.S. borrowing costs in the future.
In conclusion, the current weakening of the dollar, particularly in the face of ongoing global uncertainties where it would typically strengthen, is a trend that warrants careful attention. While a moderate depreciation can have some benefits for U.S. exports, a sustained or significant weakening could signal underlying economic vulnerabilities or a shift in global investor sentiment towards the greenback. Factors such as relative economic performance, U.S. fiscal health, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will likely play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the dollar. The departure from its traditional safe-haven status serves as a reminder that the dollar's dominance is not immutable and underscores the importance of maintaining sound economic policies to underpin its long-term strength and stability. Monitoring these trends will be critical for understanding the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for the United States.
DXY TO REGAIN BULLISH STRENGTH!DXY has been moving in a local channel indicating a short term bearish trend. What next do we expect especially as we saw a BETTER THAN EXPECTED NFP OUTCOME
From the technical standpoint, I anticipate a bullish sentiment to continue to grow till 106.591. If we’d get a break above the upper resistance of the descending channel, a buy opportunity is envisaged.
PL Dot Shapes (Detailed Summary)This idea shall focus on the behavior and structure of PL Dot Shapes, which are crucial in identifying market trends, congestion phases, and potential reversals. Let's deep dive on how to interpret PL Dot formations and recognize patterns that signal market movements.
1. Understanding PL Dot Behavior
- Trend:
PL Dots form a straight line, indicating a clear market direction. A trend stops when the market enters congestion.
- Congestion:
PL Dots move horizontally or “snake” sideways, signaling indecision or balance between buyers and sellers.
- Higher Time Period (HTP) Influence:
PL Dots from the HTP influence those in the Lower Time Period (LTP). Inconsistencies between them may indicate no clear pattern.
- Dot Distance:
Refers to the vertical price difference between consecutive PL Dots.
- Increasing Dot Distance: Indicates trend continuation or strength.
- Decreasing Dot Distance: Suggests trend exhaustion or potential reversal.
2. Key PL Dot Patterns
✅ Yes Pattern (Energy Termination Pattern)
Indicates the end of a trend and potential reversal. This pattern is characterized by signs of exhaustion:
1. PL Dot Pullback: PL Dot moves off the main trend channel, and the angle starts sloping down.
2. Decreasing Dot Distance: Dots get closer together, signaling waning momentum.
3. Exhaustion Signs: The dot pulls within range, with closes moving towards the PL Dot, causing congestion entrance.
4. Block Occurrence: Price likely returns to the area of 2-3 dots back.
5. Crest Formation: A PL Dot crest forms, indicating a potential market top.
6. Directional Shift: Dot directions begin turning downward.
7. Challenges: Be alert to price challenging PL Dot crests and valleys.
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❌ No Pattern (Non-Termination Pattern)
Indicates that the trend is likely to continue without exhaustion:
1. Similar early behavior to the Yes Pattern but lacks signs of exhaustion.
2. No Significant Pullback: PL Dot may pull within range, but no congestion entrance signs appear (bullish).
3. Price Holds: Prices do not return to the 2-3 dots back area.
4. Weak Crests: No strong crest formation, or it's shallow.
5. Stable Direction: Dot direction struggles to turn down.
6. No Challenges: No challenges to PL Dot crests or valleys, confirming trend strength.
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3. Trend Pattern (Trend Continuation Pattern)
Describes the start or continuation of a trend, especially in the LTP:
1. Dot Opening: PL Dot opens up, with increasing distance between dots, signaling strong momentum.
2. No Exhaustion: Continuation without signs of exhaustion.
3. Energy Refresh: If price reaches the area of 2-3 dots back, expect high energy on any PL Dot refresh.
4. Dots Out of Range: PL Dots move outside the prior bar’s range, confirming a strong trend.
5. Strong Challenges: Challenges to crests only add momentum to the trend.
6. Stable Direction: Dot direction maintains strength with minimal reversals.
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4. PL Dot Shapes in Congestion
When the market is in congestion, expect the following:
1. Sideways Dots: PL Dots snake sideways, indicating market indecision.
2. Support/Resistance Holding: The 6-1 lines hold both sides of the congestion area.
3. Congestion Exit Signs: Look for signs indicating the market is ready to break out of congestion.
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Key Takeaways:
- Trend Continuation: Increasing dot distance and out-of-range dots suggest a strong trend.
- Trend Exhaustion (Yes Pattern): Decreasing dot distance, dot pullbacks, and crest formation signal potential reversals.
- No Pattern: Indicates no exhaustion, suggesting the trend will continue.
- Congestion Behavior: PL Dots snake sideways with key support/resistance levels holding firm.
Understanding these patterns helps traders anticipate market behavior, identify trend reversals early, and manage trades effectively.
Market Moves as Expected—Caution for a Potential ReversalDXY Update : The movement remains in line with my expectations, with the ongoing correction being held by the Fibonacci cluster. At this stage, DXY still has the potential to strengthen, testing the 102.791–103.150 area to form wave iv of wave (v).
However, caution is advised for a potential reversal toward the 100.462–100.946.
DXY:Today's trading strategyTrump's announced comprehensive tariff plan has triggered global attention. As for the U.S. Dollar Index, on Thursday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally showed a significant downward trend. On that day, the price rose to a high of 103.931 at most, dropped to a low of 101.232, and closed at 101.937.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index price on Thursday, after the opening in the morning, the price continued to decline in the short term. Subsequently, the price remained weak all the way with almost no rebound. It underwent short-term oscillatory consolidation and finally closed with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. For now, pay attention to the resistance in the 102.80 area and the level of 102.40, and keep a continuous watch for further bearish pressure.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@102.50-102.60
TP:101.50-101.30
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DXY reversal, Bullish for BTC, but 50 day chop is likelyGood Sunday, dear friend! I'm scribbling down some ideas I had. It's good to be back home after a week on a job project. TradingView on a phone is awesome, but I definitely prefer a bigger screen.
The chart was not as clean as I wished, but it just tells some history with the correlations between DXY and BTC. For instance:
Q4 2022 - DXY tops (BTC bottoms).
Trend reversal for DXY (BTC corrects ABC after W1 after bear market).
DXY declines to a WCL, BTC soars from 25k to 73k.
In the meantime, as BTC soared, DXY also inclined, which led to an extended correction of 7.5 months. DXY rolled over in June 2025, and there was a 60-day lag before BTC felt the boost from the DXY decline.
This leads us to today. DXY and BTC have gone up together. I believe the last leg up is a consequence of the June - September decline of DXY, and BTC went up with DXY, and BTC is now left to feel the consequences of the DXY upturn. Given DXY (most likely) topped 11 days ago, we might chop for 50 more days before BTC resumes upward.
In the last WCLs, DXY retraces a minimum to 0.786. In this case, the trendline suggests a March timeframe for a low in DXY. History suggests the BTC local top is in when DXY bottoms, or is soon to top in about 2 months.
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.207.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 102.727 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD.
Historical Peaks & Reversals
Examining past DXY cycles, we see:
969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s.
1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend.
2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies.
2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal?
Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar
Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro.
Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally.
Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally.
With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
DXY April 3 Analysis DXY April 3 Analysis
*My parent bias is bear
*News 8:30 & 10
*Previous session price is in a discount the and in a discount on current trading range.
April 2 Analysis
Fantastic sell off that I was suspecting in NY. Price did not reach for the buy side I suspected however, In Asia Price did take very minor buy side at the 3 macro London and starting selling from a Premium. Retraced before NY open. And continued to sell off. Nice silver bullet at 10 macro, coming into the hourly FVG. Small retracement at 12 and small consolidation. At 16:00 huge retracement and wick sell off to make the low of the week I was again looking for. Notice how Price took weeks of sell side in 1 day. Great delivery.
April 3 Idea
I could see Price in Asia and London continue to sell off completing the rebalancing of the hourly FVG and seek the clean equal lows. Reassess for NY after that. That said there are 2 new drivers in NY to be open to reading what the chart gives me.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
DXY April 1 AnalysisDXY April 1 Analysis
*My parent bias is still bear coming into this week.
*News 10
*Previous session price is in a premium and in a discount on current trading range in a consolidation cycle.
Price opened in Asia to the down side taking sell side from last Thursday, creating equal lows, London Price retraced to the 50 level which was my original target and in NY rebalance Fridays FVG closing in consolidation.
I suspected higher prices for the beginning of this week. Great delivery. Today I suspect that Price will come up to take the noted buy side and seek to rebalance the noted FVG, possibly take the noted clean equal highs.
I am bull on this day.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
DXY:Seize the opportunity to sell short at high pricesThe situation in the Middle East is clearly deteriorating, which undoubtedly has a huge stimulating effect on the global risk aversion sentiment. More funds have started to seek safe havens. However, the best choice at present is not the US dollar. With the continuous rise of the East, more and more capital will favor this side of the East. Therefore, the pressure on the US dollar index is actually increasing, and it will be very difficult for it to rise.
Regarding the trend of the US dollar index today, although the current situation exerts great pressure, the actions to support the market of the US dollar index still take effect from time to time. So the price will not keep falling, and there will still be some oscillatory patterns. However, even if it moves in an oscillatory pattern, the upward pressure on the US dollar index will be significant. Therefore, when the price reaches the effective resistance level, it will be an excellent opportunity to short the US dollar index.
DXY Trading Strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
My idea for the DXY OANDA:EURUSD OANDA:GBPUSD
Looking at the chart we're seeing buyers exhausting their strength to push price higher, seeing sellers stepping in to take control of the market, if we get a break of the previous low then we'll be expecting price to ride us down to the next demand for possible buy opportunity.
And this move we be good for EU and GU respectively, however I welcome thoughts on this as believe a pipful week is possible. Shalom.
DXY March 30 Weekly AnalysisDXY March 30 Weekly Analysis
*My parent bias is still bear coming into this week.
*No news Monday
*Previous session price is in a discount and in a consolidation cycle.
*Note that price is weaving in between 2 HFT inefficiencies.
*Study Sundays delivery
Since March 18 Price has had a run on buy stops. Price pivoted on Wednesday at the 50 level of the range its trading in.
I like how Price came up to the 50 level of the range its trading in and didn't spend much time there before breaking down. Avoiding the market on high resistance days like Thursday is getting easier to identify. When price is high resistance it is tipping its hand to a larger move coming so be patience and wait for price to come to my levels.
NFC is this week. Will complete my weekly idea once Sundays delivers. My bias is lower prices and suspect it could be a violative week of Price delivery.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
