DXY Bullish move| 🔹 Pair / TF | DXY, 1 h → Lower Timeframes |
| 🔹 Bias | Bullish (buying potential support) |
📊 Key Levels
Level: ~99.117 (orange shaded zone)
Role: Recent Swing Low / Potential Support Zone
Level: ~98.744
Role: Lower boundary of the potential support zone
Level: ~99.727
Role: Potential Resistance (previous swing high)
Level: ~100.116
Role: Higher Potential Resistance
🚨 Trigger
Price has recently touched the ~99.117 - ~98.744 orange shaded zone, which appears to be acting as a potential support area.
There are signs of potential rejection from this zone, indicated by the recent upward price action.
Look for bullish confirmation signals on lower timeframes within this zone.
✅ Confirmation
Observe lower timeframes (e.g., 15m, 5m) for bullish reversal patterns such as double bottoms, bullish engulfing candles, or pin bars forming within the support zone.
The volume indicator at the bottom shows increasing buying volume within the support zone, suggesting potential accumulation.
Look for the Stochastic or RSI on lower timeframes to show oversold conditions followed by a bullish crossover or break above a downward trendline.
No significant bearish momentum or strong selling volume evident as price tests the support zone.
🎯 Entry & Stops
| 🔶 Entry Zone | ~99.117 – ~98.800 (within the potential support zone) |
| 🔴 Stop-Loss | Below the lower boundary of the support zone, potentially around ~98.600 - ~98.500 to allow for some buffer |
Place a Buy Limit or Buy Stop order within the entry zone, depending on your preferred entry style and confirmation.
Risk: Determine your position size based on your risk tolerance and the calculated stop-loss in pips.
🎯 Profit Targets
| Target | Level | Pips (approximate) | RRR |
| :----- | :--------- | :----------------- | :--------- |
| T1 | ~99.727 | ~60-70 | 1 : 1 or better |
| T2 | ~100.116 | ~100-120 | 1 : 1.5 or better |
Scale out:
Consider taking partial profits at T1.
Let the remaining position run towards T2, potentially adjusting your stop-loss to breakeven or in profit.
⚙️ Trade Management
Once the trade is in profit (e.g., reaching a certain pip gain or T1), consider moving your stop-loss to breakeven to protect your capital.
Monitor price action around T1. If there are strong signs of selling pressure, consider closing the remaining position.
Pay attention to any potential resistance levels or significant selling volume as price approaches your target levels.
🔑 Rationale
Price is testing a recent swing low area, which has the potential to act as support.
Increasing buying volume within the support zone suggests that buyers are stepping in.
Bullish reversal patterns on lower timeframes would confirm the rejection of the support zone.
Aiming for the previous swing high (~99.727) and the higher potential resistance (~100.116) provides logical profit targets.
⚡ Highlight:
This is a bank-order-flow style fade, looking to buy at a potential support zone after a recent pullback, anticipating a reversal and continuation of potential upward momentum. The increasing buying volume within the support zone is a key observation.
USDX trade ideas
USDX retesting demand ZONEcan dollar strength return around here over next little while?!
TDA
D1 W1 DEMAND ZONE of interest
price structure building upside move by confluenced levels of lTF's
can price shake the tree to downside sure and go lower deeper into w1 demand yes times frame dependent of this set up
- to play out is a few weeks for completion.
Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, JPYThis is the FOREX Currency futures outlook for the week of May 18 - 24th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX Majors markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
USD Index has been bullish for 4 weeks. Will it continue? Expect a pullback before bullish continuation.
Selling the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) may be the best course of action this week. Buying the EUR, GBP and CHF may also be worthwhile.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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DOLLARDXY (US Dollar Index) and Bond Yield Relationship – May 2025
Current Market Situation
US Treasury Yields:
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% (May 21, 2025), and the 30-year yield is testing the 5% level amid a global bond sell-off.
DXY (US Dollar Index):
The DXY and the 10-year yield are moving in sync again after a period of divergence earlier in 2025.
Relationship Dynamics
Positive Correlation:
Historically, the DXY and US bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) tend to move together. When yields rise, the dollar often strengthens, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns.
In recent weeks, this positive correlation has resumed after a brief disconnect in April, when yields surged but the dollar weakened due to shifting investor sentiment and US tariff policy.
Periods of Divergence:
In early April 2025, there was a notable divergence: yields climbed while the dollar fell, reflecting a rare episode where investors were wary of US assets despite higher returns, possibly due to concerns about US fiscal health and global trade tensions.
During that period, both US bonds and the dollar declined together, signaling a potential shift away from US assets and raising questions about the dollar’s structural appeal as a reserve currency.
Recent Realignment:
After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting and a major tariff agreement with China, the DXY and yields began rising together again, indicating renewed confidence in US assets and a return to more typical market behavior.
Key Factors Influencing the Relationship
Fed Policy:
Expectations for future rate cuts or hikes directly influence both yields and the dollar. Higher expected rates generally support both.
Global Risk Sentiment:
In risk-off scenarios, the dollar can strengthen even if yields fall, due to safe-haven demand.
Trade and Fiscal Policy:
Tariffs and concerns about US debt sustainability can disrupt the usual correlation, as seen in early 2025.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on DXY Impact on Yields Typical Correlation
Rising US Yields Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive
US Fiscal Concerns Can weaken DXY Yields may rise Can diverge
Global Risk Aversion Strengthens DXY Yields may fall Can diverge
Trade Tensions/Tariffs Mixed Mixed May disrupt correlation
Conclusion
As of May 2025, the DXY and US bond yields have resumed a positive correlation, both rising in response to Fed policy signals and improved risk sentiment following a major tariff agreement. However, earlier in the year, this relationship broke down due to concerns about US fiscal stability and shifting global investment flows. The interplay between DXY and yields remains sensitive to Fed policy, fiscal outlook, and geopolitical developments.
#DOLLAR #DXY
DXY Bearish Setup: Sell from Supply Zone to 99.100 TargetTrend: 📉 Bearish Bias
Key Zones & Strategy:
🔶 Supply Zone (Sell Area)
📍 100.584 – 100.906
⚠️ Price may face selling pressure here
🔵 Entry Point:
🎯 100.584 (bottom of supply zone)
🔴 Stop Loss:
❌ 100.906 (just above resistance)
🟢 Target Point:
✅ 99.100
📉 Aligned with lower support line
Technical Indicators:
📏 Descending Channel
🔽 Price moving within parallel downward trend lines
📊 EMA (70) – Orange Line
🔁 Acting as dynamic resistance
Trade Setup Summary:
📌 Sell in the Supply Zone
🛑 Stop Loss: 100.906
🎯 Target: 99.100
⚖️ Good Risk-Reward Ratio
Warnings & Tips:
⚡ Watch for Breakouts:
If price breaks above 100.906 ➡️ 📈 Bearish idea invalid
📰 Check News Events:
FOMC, CPI, or other USD events may cause volatility
DOLLAR I Weekly CLS I Model 2- Target CLS HighHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
⚔️ Listen Carefully:
Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves.
If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
DXY trade oulook.We have currently shifted structure to the bulls. Change of character @ 100.280, now we coming back for a retest of the OB/demand @ 99.910. Just above 99.910 we have equal lows/ liquidity ($). Once swept, looking for bullish sentiment to go long. If nothing comes, we will continue going down.
DXY watch 99.69: interesting number and a Major Fib for support DXY has been all over the place thanks to Trump.
That latest dip wave has hit a major fib at $99.69
This should offer some support if not a bottom.
We all know the implications of DXY movements.
Gold, Stocks, Crypto, all orbit the mighty Dollar.
Bulls need to mount a defense here and right now.
=============================================
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.21
1st Support: 98.92
1st Resistance: 101.09
Risk Warning:
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Death of US Dollar – DXY Technical Analysis (SUPPLY & DEMAND)The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken its long-term parabolic uptrend and lost the key 100–104 support zone, which has now flipped into fresh supply after a clean retest—confirming a macro structural shift from bullish to bearish. Repeated rejections from the decades-old descending trendline and major supply around 111–114 mark the end of the dollar’s recent dominance. With no strong support until the 89.16 level—and deeper demand zones at 84 and even 76—DXY is likely entering a prolonged downtrend. This breakdown has global implications: easing dollar strength typically boosts risk assets, commodities, and emerging markets, while accelerating dedollarization narratives. For Bitcoin, this environment is historically bullish, potentially fueling the next crypto rally as capital rotates into scarce, decentralized assets amid weakening fiat confidence. Unless the dollar reclaims 104 on a monthly close, this marks the beginning of a macro bearish cycle for the USD.
DXY demonstrates the USD is in troubleThis week's selloff has a chance of validating last week's Shooting Star candle.
It's only Tuesday, so there's still much time left, but if the DXY does fall here, the next stop is 97.50, and then 94.75.
I don't consider 97.50 a strong level, so somewhere near 95 is more likely.
Thursday's PMI numbers could push the USD in either direction. The last print was 50.6, and anything below 50 is considered a contraction, so little room for downside is available.
This report will be more carefully watched I believe than usual.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish Reversal Setup – 1H Chart Analy ENTRY POINT: 100.005
→ This is the area where the trade is suggested to enter long (buy).
🟥 STOP LOSS: Around 99.307
→ Placed below strong support to manage risk.
🟦 SUPPORT ZONE: 99.776 - 99.307
→ Strong historical demand zone, price has bounced from here before.
🟪 BREAKOUT ZONE: Near 100.5
→ If price breaks the trendline here, it may trigger bullish momentum.
🎯 TARGET POINT: 103.096
→ This is the take profit zone (blue box) with a potential gain of +3.29%.
📊 Trade Setup Summary:
✅ Buy Setup: Price approaching support zone, forming a potential reversal.
⚠️ Watch for breakout: Above the trendline to confirm bullish move.
✨ Great Risk-to-Reward: Small risk (tight stop), big reward.
DOLLARThe relationship between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields in May 2025 reflects a complex and evolving dynamic influenced by fiscal concerns, trade policies, and investor sentiment:
Recent Trends:
U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year yield briefly touching 5%, and the 10-year yield climbing above 4.5%, driven by concerns over rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite this rise in yields, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, dropping about 4% year-over-year, reflecting reduced confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Typical Relationship:
Normally, higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which supports a stronger dollar. The dollar and bond yields often move in tandem, showing a positive correlation (around 0.5 over recent months). This was evident recently as the dollar strengthened alongside rising yields following a preliminary U.S.-China trade truce.
Current Anomalies:
However, in early 2025, this relationship weakened significantly. The dollar declined even as Treasury yields rose, signaling a loss of confidence in U.S. assets amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. This decoupling suggests investors are reconsidering the dollar’s role and are diversifying away from U.S. assets.
Market Sentiment and Risks:
The downgrade and rising deficits have increased fears about U.S. fiscal health, prompting some investors to sell U.S. assets, which pressures the dollar despite higher yields. Meanwhile, tariff policies and geopolitical risks contribute to volatility in both yields and the dollar.
Outlook:
The dollar and Treasury yields have recently realigned, moving more in sync again as trade optimism returned and the Fed maintained a steady policy stance. However, ongoing fiscal challenges and geopolitical uncertainties mean this relationship remains fragile.
Summary
Aspect Current Observation (May 2025)
Treasury Yields Rising (10-year ~4.5%, 30-year ~5%)
U.S. Dollar Index Weakened (~4% decline YTD)
Typical Correlation Positive (~0.5 correlation between dollar and yields)
Recent Anomaly Dollar fell while yields rose (early 2025)
Drivers of Anomaly Fiscal concerns, Moody’s downgrade, trade tensions
Market Sentiment Reduced confidence in U.S. assets and dollar
Outlook Re-alignment underway but fragile due to fiscal risks
In essence:
While U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually move together—higher yields supporting a stronger dollar—recent fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions have caused periods of divergence. Rising yields amid a weakening dollar reflect investor worries about U.S. debt sustainability and a potential shift away from the dollar’s reserve currency status. However, improving trade relations and Fed communication have recently brought the two back into closer alignment, though the relationship remains sensitive to evolving economic and political development
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#dollar #dxy #gold