About 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
Stagflation is comingReal interest rates will probably start to fall soon because of stagflation.
Real interest rates can be measured by subtracting inflation expectations FRED:T10YIE from US treasury yields FRED:DGS10 .
Treasury yields will likely fall along with unemployment as measured by initial claims FRED:
$spy $tlt THE top is coming, but $ to be madeWhere spy tops out is questionable. 4800, 5000, 5250 ? Who know, We are now in the later stages in my opinion. Keep bets small and use stop losses and options to manage risk. A lot of money can be made or lost in this final stage. Don't be greedy and manage risk. Volatility will remain high so
10-Year Treasury Hiding StrengthFRED:DGS10
Thought I would check out the the 10 year after some crazy price action and decided to analyze this on a longer term time frame.
The Laguerre RSI doesn't show much weakening compared to price which indicates to me there could be a possible pop up even making higher highs.
Synchronized marketsSo we have synchronized movements between long-term treasury yields (5, 10 and 30 years) and cyclicals (airlines, oil companies, carmakers, cruise lines, etc.) regardless of the fundamentals. If these yields are expected to continue increasing in response to a higher rate of inflation, a continuatio
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