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DJTA trade ideas

XOP OIH WTI & the Fracking LogThe duration of the price of OIL collapse of 2007-08 was 210 days. IF all things were equal, and the same causes and circumstances were the same as back then, the bounce up would be very soon. BUT... they are not the same. Demand and world GDP was up, supplies constant, price of oil skyrockets until... the cost hurts GDP, add in the housing/credit crisis, NOT unrelated was the cost of oil increasing inflation numbers, raising housing values, all inflated, borrowing against values that would soon crash with the price of oil. Note the lag of time between crash of oil and crash of markets 2007-08. Now there is no housing/credit crisis, because we have not recovered from that credit crisis. This time we have FRACKING, creating an oversupply, with less demand (world GDP contracting), crashing the price of oil again, but for different reasons, hence no market crash (yet). Saudi's want to punish Frackers, but frackers are still pumping (AKA The Fracking -back- log), because the big costs was in the set up not the pumping. Funny stat. in 2008, after demand slowed due to price, we had a 5.5 million barrels per day excess. This time Fracking added 5 million barrels per day supply, with no more demand, creating the same oversupply. Issues now are deflation and having tried to kick start economies with extreme measure QE, currency debasing-wars, etc... (I say again, no new jobs) , have failed. US is best of the worst, and euro QE will take some time to spur economy. Lower price of gas cannot kick start an economy on its own. We wait for time I think before the Fracking LOG of oil supply stops. Note the consolidation of the Dow Transports now. You would have thought with 2007-08 the huge collapse in oil prices that sector would have not dropped, but it did. Now, what will it do,how has low oil prices helped world GDP and economies, IT HAS NOT. With rates at zero, a drop in oil would cause huge spike in GDP growth, creating many jobs, and growth in PE. BUT IT IS NOT HAPPENING! Why not ?????? Because world is still contracting, and deflation is a real worry. No inflation until price of oil rises, forget jobs, Yellen doesn't raise rates until oil pops, and there is at least a threat of inflation (wages increases are NOT happening) . Lots on this chart, hope you can see everything I am trying to say. IMO... DOWT corrects, while price of oil dips even lower or consilidates. Dollar spike may dip, but might have one more up side until final downtrend, as it did before, see? OIL may have to touch 2009 low before a real bounce and uptrend, after DOWT leads markets down and markets finally get the correction they need, to bring valuations into real time. This will be seen as a "healthy" correction of a very overvalued market, and only this will bring fundamentals back into play where companies have to spend the cash, adding jobs, to realize real growth, no more tricks to artificially inflate stock prices, M&A, buy backs, etc. In fact, maybe the governments cause this or at least authorize it (and Maybe Yellen is told to raise rates to cause it even if she disagrees) , so it happens way before the 2016 election. Hey, the world a web woven of power and money. As always, just IMO. Trade carefully. :)
DJ:DJTShort
by claydoctor
DOWT, closed above necklineAfter faking out from the Megaphone as H&S, price got rejected below the neckline but somehow 8694.68 coincide with Christmas Mood. The second day after Mdm Y reassured interest rate remains the same (plus a blackmailed from Mr. Market), price closed just a fraction above the Neckline! Well, the immediate resistance (whether it is strong enough) will be the upper ascending Megaphone line. If price were to break this resistance and further clear the shooting star high, the entire purple region could be a left shoulder.
DJ:DJT
by jangseohee
5
Too much of something isn't always goodIf the current downtrend channel can hold up the price well, then you know what to expect, ain't ya! 1st scenario: next bar will even pierce through channel top and challenge R1. If this is the case, MACD & RSI are continuing to make lower high which resulting in more bearishness. Price might stall between Pivot & Resistance 1 for awhile before making a U-turn. 2nd scenario: next bar only enough to challenge pivot and then consolidate for awhile and then make a big U-turn. still MACD & RSI continue to make lower high. Next anticipated support would be between 7490 - 7550, which confluence with S5 & Fibo 1.618 level. Another bearish indicator if you have forgotten-PRICE FLIES away from 8ema! P.S. I won't rule out the very slim chance of price challenging R2.
DJ:DJTShort
by jangseohee
DOW Transport - buy the dip - WHAT DIP ?"super bull market !" every day Bloomberg TV, CNBC, and god knows who is barking "ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGH" in this or that Index ... "Stocks are still cheap historically given the current average P/E" "compared to 10y Treasury yields , S&P div yld is more interesting" WELL, I was told to buy the dip then... WHAT DIP ???? Ok, RSI is only at 79.6%, STILL GOT LEGS TO GO TO 80%, perhaps even 85% !!! ...or... you play the party-pooper and play aggressively the dip = go short. The dip will come as likely as we got a new pope. The question is therefore not if, but when. Would I rather buy here ? Nope. Would I short here ? You bet. Is anyone noticing the GREAT VOLUME on this very recent super rally since the break-out of the monster triangle ? Great accompanying volume , NOT. I am bit sarcastic and there are NO indications and signals of a reversal AT ALL. But my finger tickles on the sell button. sorry
DJ:DJTShort
by oops
DOW Transportations, showing no signs of bearishnessDOW Transports has given us some incredible signals as to the overall market direction. Right now it's giving us a green light, but comformation would be reached if the DOWT can break the overhead ascending resistance (zoom out to verify). However, we should be careful for what we wish for. There is very strong resistance near the 5600-5700 level. Several major market corrections have occured after the DOWT has touched the ascending resistance line.
DJ:DJT
by QuantitativeExhaustion
8