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DJCFD (DJ Transportation Average index).Macro BullishHi, Some say that the DJCFD is a good indicator for the general stock market, eg SP500. If DJCFD does well, the others will do well. This past week, as per the weekly chart, we can see a solid bullish candle close above a main resistance. Before its retests this resistance level, I am leaning towards it reaching to the upper part of this regression channel first. OBSERVATIONS\THOUGHTS: ==================================================== > MACD shows convergence on the daily and the weekly chart. > Using both the channel and the fib tool, the next target level has confluence with both of these elements. > Chart below shows top resistance trend line with confluence to this target area. > Hopefully this also gives the SP500 and BTC the spring it needs for the bull trend to continue, once again. NOTE: DXY finished bearish last week, which gives extra weight to this thesis. Please give me a like or tick for this post. Regards, S.SAri NOTE the top resistance trend line has confluence on my target as well
DJ:DJT
by ssari
Dow Jones Transports Make All-Time HighToday 09/16/20 the DJT made a new all-time high. There are two Elliott Wave counts. The Prime count has Minor wave "3" at or near a peak. The alternate wave count has Intermediate wave (5) at or near completion. If this wave count is correct it implies the DJT could be on the verge of a multi-year bear market. Momentum indicators favor the Prime count which implies the DJT could make additional new highs in the coming weeks. Weekly RSI is still not overbought and is at it's highest level since the rally began in late March. RSI almost always has at least one bearish divergence when used on stock indexes. The lack of a bearish divergence implies higher prices. MACD lines show no bearish divergence and only a tiny bearish divergence on the Histogram. These factors also imply higher prices. Mark
DJ:DJTLong
by markrivest
2
The case for a retest of highsThis is as good as any wave count of DJT. As you can see the 5th wave is extended, and in the 5th wave, the iiird wave is the extended one. If we go by having completed wave iv of 5 just now then we should have one more rally to complete wave v of 5. The DJT is the best index to count waves imo. I'm looking for the VIX to rally with CV stocks but this hasn't happened yet so with this wavecount there is still a possibility. This could also coincide with a possible 2nd wave of CV during fall/winter.
DJ:DJT
by Sintar123
1
Transports Testing All Time Highs?If we know one thing in technical analysis, all time highs are not bearish. So if the Dow Jones Transports broke out to new all time highs, would that be bearish for equities? Or would that sound like the start of a new bull market? To me it sounds like the latter, so letโ€™s have a look at the chart! With a new weekly close, we are inches away from the all time high. The MACD is trending bullish and the RSI is not in overbought territory. These all point to the long term trend staying intact and remaining bullish. So if we assume that the market will remain bullish, what are some targets that we should have in the back of our mind? Well if we get really bullish, we could assume that the 200% extension would be a good target. This is not the typical way to use Fibonacci retracements, but I find it very useful. I take the Fibonacci retracement tool from the top of the 200% extension all the way down to the swing low. This helps me envision key levels of retracement in the future based on my upside target. This aligns the 50% retracement, with the all time high (100% extension), and is a key level of resistance. If we fail at this point, a logical level for support is the 61.8% retracement. This would also be a higher low and would be bullish for the long term trend. While the RSI and the MACD are both showing some exhaustion, there is just so much room for a higher low to be made that we have to remain bullish. Anything above 55 on the RSI is a higher low. If we fail at that level, anything above 40 is still a possible bullish trend. There are no bearish divergences to worry about either! So until the market tells us not to be bullish, we remain bullish. Keep your head on a swivel! Happy Trading!
DJ:DJTLong
by derzzycharts
Short term/long term plansDJT is one of my canaries (in the coal-mine). I also look at DJI and SPX similarly, they give you a good idea about what's happening at the market in general. The idea is to notice the steep pink/magenta arrows (6 of them within 2 months! should be enough to learn from it) and conclude, that the blue arrows are the 'real' ones that would represent a trend instead of short lived run ups that will never last and continue permanently. I hope it's not confusing: just compare the angles of the arrows (how steep the blue vs.pink). One of them works, the other doesn't. More over, looking at the longer run (1 year ahead) this recent blue arrow could be a correction of a bear market even (like a big bear flag) after all, we are in the middle of a great recession, an "unprecedented" economic situation that has no pair since 1929, right? At least that's what I heard. So accordingly, it's more likely that this phase is a correction, and we are still in a bear market. So, maybe the V shape recovery will work now, for the 7th time? If we leave out all the news and all the economic background, the bankruptcies, the high unemployment numbers and it's consequences nationwide and only analyze the chart from a mathematical perspective (like common sense betting on odds), then yes, it's possible. A 1 in a 7 chance, so less then 15% to win, more than 85% to loose. Still wanna bet on the quick upside or some kind of a pull back, down correction, leg down or even a bigger collapse/downturn should follow any time soon? Let me know in the comments, more likely UP or DOWN?
DJ:DJTShort
by janfoux