DJT/DJI - At the Top of this Year's ChannelJust noticed this today and thought I would share. Something to keep an eye on.
Any thoughts? Not to sure what to make of it.
DJTA trade ideas
DJT Has the Clearest Elliott Wave PatternToday 11/5/19 was a very important day for the DJT. It broke above important resistance at 11148 made on 4/24/19 labeled as (B).
My 7/16/19 DJT post speculated that the DJT may have completed an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle. As it turned out the Triangle appears to have been still under construction.
The current H - Triangle has 50% Fib relationships between wave (D)/(B) and (C)/(A).
Daily Stochastic has a bullish crossover, and room to run on the upside.
If this count is correct the DJT is in a post triangle trust up that could move it well above the all-time.
IMPORTANT - Even if you don't trade DJT you need to watch the index because it has the clearest US stock index and can act as a road map for other indices.
My next DJT post will examine the long term DJT Elliott wave pattern and upside target.
Mark
DMT Important weekI'm using this as a leading indicator for SPX and SPY. Must see how this week will play out with FEDS on 31 OCT
Trannies Roadmap Oct 2019This looks feasible..fundamentally dunnu how it will happen but markets are what they are
DJT and KNX Comparison 1 Week timeframe ---Composed this for a friend---
A comparison of a large trucking company and the DOW Jones Transportation Index. Using the DOW index to look for early signs that can affect the smaller logistics components.
I am bearish (negative) on Industrials. Why? At the most Macro -- President Trump does not want war, but, Congress is too divided for comprehensive infrastructure rebuilding.
Also at the macro level I'm very bearish on many mainstream stocks, at both DOW and S&P500 exhibit multi-year topping pattern - and, my opinion only stay afloat with accounting tricks.
other factors:
Overland transportation is (to a degree) dependent on vehicle sales - and I believe sales of new cars and light trucks have topped.
American consumer appears to be maxed out, and topping as well. Less need for movement of consumer purchases.
Long term - some (National) moves to grow food locally - and have less of the "2000 mile salad".
Trade war - less movement - more tariffs/ higher costs for non necessities.
What would make me bullish?:
a huge war
a huge natural disaster of an entire region - necessitating a national effort to keep that region supplied.
Cost cutting with new technology (no drivers?)...? not sure about this one...
DJT looking heavier and HEAVIERThe chart says it all. Continuously watching DJT and RTY for economic indicators pointing towards overall slowdown.
Both -Nas and SP500- made new ATH's, while the latter RTY and DJT (DowJonesTranspo) lagged and were unable to re-capture ATH's.
-------RTY and DJT appear to be spilling over. ------
Watch the levels, trade accordingly and most importantly.
We are market AGNOSTIC. We move with , NOT against.
Market TrendsDJT
A market in a broadening formation is said to be lacking intelligent sponsorship and out of control - a situation usually in which the public is excitedly committed and which is being whipped around by wild rumors. E&M
Dow theory in play and it suggest a gloomy outlookClassic Dow theory suggest a downtrend ahead and the outlook may look gloomy as the Transportation has not been making new highs and instead it makes new low. Beside that, there is a high probability that the transportation will break the diamond top pattern.
More Sell Off A HeadWe ended up breaking to the downside! The weakness in Transport telling us that we are in a Recession or Heading to one!!
DJ Transport v IndustrialDivergence seen with the transport trending down and industrial trending up, is this a warning sign?
Dow Transports are Surging UpThe Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) looks like it has completed a multi- month Elliott Wave Horizontal Triangle, if so it could now be in the early phase of a post triangle thrust up. A thrust is usually measured by the widest length of the triangle which in this case is wave (A) = 2986.80 points. This is added to the termination point of the triangle - the bottom of wave (E) 10260.30 + 2986.80 = 13247.10 as a possible bull market top.
For confirmation,all that is needed is to exceed Primary wave "3" boxed at 11623.60 top.
An alternate bull market top can be calculated by taking wave (A) length of 2986.80 x .618 = 1845.80 + 10260.30 = 12106.10 alternate bull market peak.
Time target late August early September 2019.
Mark
DMT 1M CHARTLet's see breakout - down or up - towards support or resistance. Both outcome will be interested compared with production companies.
DJT Bullish (if pullback occurs)DJT move since 24 December looks like an impulsive 5-wave pattern (With RSI divergence). Retracing to 10k is possible with coming earnings reports and profit taking. 10k - 9.5k will offer good risk/reward ratio. It would be wise to keep an eye on this.
Big Market Update | WEEKLY | DJ | IWM | TLT | DJT Be aware this is a longterm idea for the whole markets. Nothing is granted in this game. Don't follow this idea blindly. This is just to keep you aware of possibilities, not to tell you what to do.
For me things are lining up very well.
* Don't just look at SPY and QQQ other markets doesn't look that strong right now.
Alright. Four Charts. Weekly charts.
From left to right:
1. DJ | Dow Jones Industrial
2. IWM | Midcaps
3. TLT | Bonds
4. DJT | Transporation index
The Bonds are currently holding very well within what looks like a weekly bull flag.
Stronger Bonds are usually an indicator that bigger money is flowing into .. bonds and flowing out of .. stocks. It's basically the idea to have save heaven for the bigger moneys.
The bonds are currently diverging higher on the indicators, wheras the other markets are all posting something that could turn out to be head and shoulders patterns while all of them are divering lower.
Just a reminder. Today is the possible brexit or not day. I don't believe they will vote FOR the harsh brexit today. I think the brexit will be postponed to a date 2 years later or similar. But still the end of today will lead to alot of confusion.
Also remember that tomorrow Futures and options are expiring.
// trade carefully.
GL.
Dow Transportion Average Deflationary Bearish Divergence !Dow Theory principal of market analysis rests on the premise
that the Industrial Average,Transportation Average, and Utility Average
should all be in gear together in a confirming signal of unison
about both the markets and the economy's state of health.
If one index diverges from the others, and it persists for a while, it is a notable warning sign that something is amiss.
Last night, Federal Express, one of the largest worldwide shippers, and key stock in the Transportation Average
revealed in their earnings release that the world's economy is markedly slowing down in 2019
Is anyone paying attention to what they said ?
I mean you really don't even have to read tea leaves to get it.
The Dow Transportation Average made it's high in Sept 2018, prior to the Industrial Average peak
and right now is giving striking bearish divergences about the health of the "real economy" in the United States
Also note that the Dow Utility Average, the 2nd of the Dow Trioka Averages
is also giving confirming signals of a real slowdown in the economy, and in the rise in short and long term interst rates,
Sooner or later, the overall stock market here in the US
will finally come to the realization that things are not quite as rosy as they seem .
That includes the Dow Industrial's, S+P 500, and bubbly Nasdaq market.
When they begin to sell off, investors will be looking for reasons.
My own advise is that you start paying attention
to what the Dow Transportation Average is telling you every day.
There is a real ,and marked slowdown going on in the US economy right now.
And soon, with 1rst Quarter Earnings due in April, other market leading companies will soon confirm the same news.
Dow Transportation Average Chart
paints a much more bearish scenario than the Industrial's ..doesn't it ?
Do not ignore that divergence.
Major Sell Signal Pending on Close Below DJT 10116.86
DJT Last 10277.32
THE_UNWIND
3/20/19
Mountains?New York
