NIKKEI225 trade ideas
$nikkei k.i.s.s analysis looks like Nikkei likes a lot to trade in a range/to form channels
there are two possibilities in my humble opinion:
red path is the safest one: wait for the retest of the support and after that give it a try.
green path: if you believe that the stock market worldwide will have a sharp turnaround, combined with the support confluences.
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Explanation of Pivot Preference Fib Channel An example of flattening market at highs with Fibonacci Channel using High, Low, square root of High*Low, Opening Time and Price and, Closing time and two prices M1 and M4, calculated samely as in Traditional Pivots except, central Pivot = Sqrt(H)*Sqrt(L) instead of, central Pivot = (H+L+C)/3. So, Fib Channel starts at Open Price & Time, and if Bullish then it goes to { - }/2 and if Bearish then to, { - }/2
The r.lambda, or Pivot Preference, in such an interpretation, (DISCLAIMER: just understanding, limited, mine, opinion) is Bullish if, Risk Reward for the last closed duration(period) was favorable for Buyers. Knowing whether you(as a participant) are Bullish or Bearish is important, as well as what kind of participant you are, as well, i.e. maker or taker.
In any respect, this was a video with a Nikkei, and part of a pivot preference circle
NI225, Elliott wave analysis■Outlook of NI225(NIKKEI) on 1M chart.
I think that we are on sub-wave (1) of wave Ⅴ on the Upper Degree shown as Blue-line.
Sub-waves of WaveⅤare Red-line. Probably, The sub-waves of "wave Ⅴ" will be "Impulse".
Sub-wave (1) of waveⅤ looks like completed because of sub-wave 5 of wave (1) broken acceleration channel line.
The trend will switch to a down-trend. Next is wave(2). It probably is a big retrace.
probably DJI will crash, and Nikkei will be linkage to DJI.
If you want to know more, read my idea about DJI.
If the assumption is correct, the target of wave (2) is as follows.
1. 38.2% Fibo levels of wave (1), 17,500.
2. Closing price of sub-wave 4 of Wave(1), 16,400.
3. Closing price of sub-wave ⅳ of Wave4, 14,800.
4. 61.8% Fibo levels of wave (1), 12,300.
5. Resistance line touch, 11,185.
In this scenario, the stop loss level is 30,715.
■Outlook of DJI(Dow),3Days-6months, Dec 19, 2021 idea.
■Outlook of DJI(Dow),1Day, Dec 25, 2021 idea.
NIKKEI 225 - More Upsides to GoSpent a decent amount of time working on Nikkei 225, which is one of my heaviest invested markets. In my opinion, there is certainly a great amount of probability it will crash, but I really don't see it coming in a short period of time.
On one hand, The USDJPY and DXY are probably implying more upsides to go, which in my opinion, would mean a strong economic recovery, which boosts the market even higher.
Realistically, the US stock market is already expecting 3 rate hikes in the year 2022, and with that taken into account, I really cannot come up with extra bad expectations, probably only inflation. However, if there is inflation the stock market would probably climb even more due to an increase in nominal value.
Because of that, I really don't see too much upside in the short term, at least in the first half of the year 2023. I am still holding my longs and would love to add more, and certainly would stay with my cash and be cautious maybe a half year later.