Are we in a recession? (spoiler: no)I wanted to aggregate some of the things that the NBER considers when determining a recession, and provide three links that people can follow to monitor for recession likelihood.
The NBER uses lagging data so they officially declare recessions after they've been under way for some time and someti
About Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs.
ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains
extremely negative @ 38%.
Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr
approaching 1% from YCC.
The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing.
USDX appears to be supportive ~
See all ideas