🚨 Bitcoin NOT at all-time high yet! 🚨🚨 Bitcoin NOT at all-time high yet! 🚨
I developed this formula a long time ago and have been observing it. When the founder of ADA (Charles Hoskinson) said that the previous Bitcoin all time high was $69,000 based on the value of the dollar in 2021, I remembered my formula.
The essence is quite simple: multiply the sum of the Fed's liabilities, the US budget balance, and the debt-to-GDP ratio by the dollar index and divide by the price of Bitcoin.
From an economic point of view, this formula attempts to correlate US monetary and fiscal indicators, as well as the strength of the dollar, with the price of Bitcoin. It is my attempt to measure the "fundamental value" of Bitcoin relative to the indicators of the US economy and the strength of the dollar.
RRPONTTLD trade ideas
Reverse Repo MarketReverse repo market cooling off.
Let's see how this affects the Fed's positioning, considering the liquidity implications.
Expecting a 6-8 month lead time for the liquidity to make it's way to the market.
1. Banks pulling liquidity to backstop any liquidity crunch
2. Banks expecting the fed to pivot, so they can get better returns lending that money out rather than using it for RR ops. Lock long term high rates, lending money out, now.
Guessing this is front-running the fed.
Publishing to keep an eye on it.
IMO, Fed pivot != bullish. It means they likely overshot their desired outcome. Fed halting to re-analyze would be the best outcome in my eyes.
Wow...Seems the FED really walked themselves into a terrible situation going with the whole, let's kick the can down the road and deal with it later. Man, they really should have increased interest rates earlier but now, seems the "everything" bubble is popping one by one. Equities and crypto took a beating and it seems mortgages are showing signs of weakness. For awhile I thought there could be inflation hedges in physical metals or crypto but that turned out to be total bs. At this point, it just seems like your option is to hunker down and hold on while we continue to see increased rates to slow inflation. This is definitely going to be an issue for awhile...