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University of Michigan: Consumer SentimentUniversity of Michigan: Consumer SentimentUniversity of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

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Timing the Markets with Consumer SentimentBusinesses and producers around the world always cheer when U.S. consumer sentiment is in the 80 to 100 zone, as U.S. consumers play a big part in the global economic ecosystem. The United States remains the largest consumer market in the world, but since the pandemic, this index has not recovered above the 80 level. Does it mean that, there is a risks economy to enter into a recession? How can we use this index to time our investments and trades? E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: RTY Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: M2K Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:UMCSENTShort
by konhow
2
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9
Consumer Sentiment's Role in Long-Term Buying Opportunities Consumer Sentiment is just one tool for investors to use when choosing whether to buy, sell, add, or trim stocks. But it can be a very useful tool, especially when markets are heavily skewed in one direction as they appear to be today. There have only been four (the three breaches during the 08 crisis I count as one) occurrences in the past when the U.S. consumer sentiment has dipped below the 57.40 mark. As we are currently quickly approaching 57.40 I have taken the liberty to map out the five-year returns of each of the four previous lows in consumer sentiment (assuming a buy-in during the month of the 57.40 breaches). 11/1974: 43.6% five-year return 04/1980: 76.02% five-year return 06/2008: 16.31% five-year return 11/2008: 81.33% five-year return 02/2009: 116.35% five year return 08/2011: 58.77% five-year return Average nominal five-year return on the S&P500 since 1957: roughly 53% Importance of these data? The takeaway here is that historically low consumer sentiment (sub 57.40) has in the past provided great opportunities for patient investors to enter long-term positions in stocks and yield abnormally high returns. Basing an investment decision on one economic metric is not an intelligent strategy, but using consumer sentiment to help time your buying position appears to be an effective method going off of historic price action.
FRED:UMCSENT
by Gooby_Trades
Consumer Sentiment - 10 AM ESTThe 007s are back, we know full well what that means. Gap to Trap the Safety Trade Baggies again. They never learn. ____________________________________________________ CDs - 3/6 Months @ 2.10 and 2.20, Yr @ 3.30, 4/5Yr @ 3.40.... If ya believe, load the woodshed. Prior to making the same mistake for the 4t time, ask yourselves one simple question - why are these not following the decline in Yields? For the gang who couldn't shoot straight - answers are never a clear target. We'll continue to take the Bond Ape's Bong Money. Toke up Dino and crew, we're hunting you.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
UMICH - CONsumer SentimentNo worries Mates and Shelia's - this is bottoming. It's down under, so far down under it's Alice Springs under with a dash of ET tossed in for good measure. A "Turnaround" ? Ozzy Man Reviews: What is a Turnaround? search Youtube... You'll get the idea of how "Top and Bottom" promoting works out. ________________________________________________________ @ 50.20 after another decline of 16%, they'll defend 50... or at least feign it. What actually improved? Gas Prices? Food Prices? Rents? Supply Chains Globally? War against the CIA in Ukraine? China backing off Taiwan? Brandon still alive so we can avoid Pelosi, Kamala will be chicken choked... never stood a chance. The CFR didn't invite her to the room for anything less than nefarious purposes... Nnnn.Kay? It's Nancy's moment to shine soon enuf. Have China’s growth prospects been hammered by strict Covid-19 lockdowns? Well for 61 hours... Does not count. Have Europe’s households enduring cost of living crisis ended, or will the ECB's Rate Hikes temper it? Hiking rates in a Depression a good idea? Uh... no. And let's not skirt the situation in many poorer emerging markets, where food crises and even famines are spreading... Yeah, naw... it's all good there IF your epigenetic goal is... less peeps and a cleaner less colored deep end of the pool. The last time that the - everything sell-off stars aligned was in early 1981 when Paul Volcker’s Fed broke the back of inflation and turned stagflation into an outright poof... Volker was no Pompedor, he simply drove as many stakes into Capital Stocks as possible given his Agenda, for which he is touted as a HERO. Lunacy at best. The dude was a Temple Master... And for you younglings... Eustice Mullens... Google "Secrets of the Temple" it's a good read, but hell few bother to do that any longer. Watch it on the Tube then.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
4
Consumer SentimentConsumer Sentiment continues in Trend. Its ability to forecast "Recession" is unparalleled. 100% accurate as a Leading Indicator of overall Economic conditions. It Surveys 500 households about their expected financial conditions, their sentiment about the general Economic conditions, Unemployment and the status of household Savings. Consumers’ confidence towards the future economic conditions, as a consequence of which they are less probable to save, and more probable to spend money on major purchases in the next 365 Days. Inflation has an important role as Purchasing Power Parity is the "Price" of a currency expressed in terms of the number of goods or services that a unit of money can purchase. Purchasing power is important as, Ceteris Parabis, inflation decreases the number of goods or services a Consumer would be able to purchase. Higher cost of living, as well as increasing interest rates affect Global Markets - Inflation increases the demand for Revolving Credit at a time when many Institutions are seeing their falling credit ratings create large Risks to both Corporate and Government Bonds. Rising Rates for UST's is indeed a signal of Quality Control Issues for the United States Treasury and Government. It used to be 4 decades ago, now... it is simply a measure of how distended the late-stage Credit Cycle has devolved. QE has turned former Citizens into Consumption Units to be measured and monitored for Big Data. A rate of return equal to or greater than the rate of inflation today is difficult for those living on Fixed Income Streams. Boomers, GEN X, and the few remaining Greatest GEN are seeing their Savings lose their Purchasing Power at the highest rate within their lifetimes. For the Youth of our Nation - Gen Z & Millenials it is caught as catch can - where there's action there's an opportunity. unfortunately for the Majority - remain prey with less opportunity for a great many reasons.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
1
Consumer Sentiment - 66.8%Try as they might - The perception Monetary & Fiscal Policy is Failing... Inescapable. _______________________________________ 72.5 expected Swing and a... Miss _______________________________________ Every Economic Downturn is led by 18 Months of... F_ck this BS, we're in Deep Sh_t. Every one Ever. _______________________________________ Wall Street has its Fill. All that's left is for the Equity Complex to Cloes Red Today. Difficult to Fathom? Not really. _______________________________________ The Operators know precisely what's up. The FED... bailout after bailout created another QE Bubble. Jerry excels at Transitory Bubbles as Did Yellen, Bernanke, and Sir Allen. _______________________________________ Friday's are an easy Fill as the Degenerates are mostly distracted with Weekend Plans. Participation is low, the perfect time to run the Tables ahead of the continued correction. The move Lower is far from over, the question we will answer is - will we see lower lows or will Trending Support now hold? _______________________________________ Today's Gains do not belong. The ES traded to Resistance, last week's Pivot. The NQ made a Large Front Run of its Objective by 40+ Ticks. The YM is broken, it was the First to break signaling a complete loss of confidence in the Seasonals ability to keep this together. _______________________________________ A very serious Decline is set up, one in which we will see far more Vertical Down. CRASHY MOVE DEAD AHEAD - IMHO Positioned 82% in SELL of ES NQ YM We have not seen and inside out Friday in a very long time.
FRED:UMCSENTShort
by HK_L61
5