About Unemployment Level
The bearish case for risk-on assets during rate cuts.It’s interesting to observe how, historically, every time the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, we tend to see a rise in unemployment and a decline in the S&P 500. While rate cuts are often used to stimulate the economy, they can signal underlying economic challenges that lead to market downturns
UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOKUNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK
This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between:
1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE),
2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and
3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars)
Historically, the general play book / sequence
Unemployment & The Coming RecessionOnce the Unemployment Rate crosses the 36 mo MA this has historically marked a period of
a coming Recession. As you can tell from the RSI indicator we entered into this phase a few months ago.
I'm posting this chart because tomorrow Biden is going to tell everyone how great the Economy is doing
The Phillips Curve with SPY(Inflation/Unemployment)I had read something on the, "Phillips Curve"
From Investopedia
"The concept behind the Phillips curve states the change in unemployment within an economy has a predictable effect on price inflation. The inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation is depicted as a downward sloping, con
Inflation / Unemployment / Stocks2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 19
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