Unemployment Rate and RecessionsWho else noticed unemployment rate creeping up?
Tic Toc...
#recession #unemployment
UNRATE trade ideas
Recession or Depression?A quick rise on unemployment, resultant of a speedy pullback on major markets, I think would be the best outcome for the US.
2025 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE above 5.2% by Late MARCH 2025 CYCLES project a swift move up based on the pattern . DOGE and the fact a min of 15 to 25 % of federal workers have stated they will Resign and With D.O.G.E. to implement and referring the closing down part and All of several depts . should be the Cause .as well as over 890 k jobs loss in revisions .
UnemploymentThe Fed was surely spooked a while back as the rate of change remained high for up trending unemployment.
Guess what asset class initially loves up trending unemployment?
Gold & Silver miners.
#fed #fomc #ratecut #recession #gold #silver #miners
Unemployment & RecessionsWhen #unemployment starts rising like it is doing now, I have not found another time where is suddenly reverse & turns down.
Oh, yeah, #recessions are then very often seen to appear.
This opens up opportunities in sectors that track this misfortune: #gold & #silver #miners.
Gold and Silver Miners go where unemployment goes.When #gold and #silver #miners enter bull eras, massive hardship ensues for the people.
Makes me kinda sad to think about it this way...
#unemployment #economy #recession
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone,
The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
Welcome to the 2024 recessionOrange bars indicate recessions calculated by the NBER. Keep in mind, they waited a year to spawn in the 2008 information. Appears to have entered into the steepening phase with a MACD cross on the 2 month. Also a cross on the 21 period moving average. I believe this to be a little more accurate than the Sahm rule.
Unemployment reversal, US 500 Market DirectionUnemployment reversal, US 500 Market Direction
Historical patterns since the 90's
Unemployment, FED Rates, SPXLooks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak.
Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates.
At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb.
Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates.
if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy will break and they have to reduce the rate and if it happens then it's already too late.
Looks like CD's and earning ~5% interest on cash is much better than risking for very limited upside in the market.
Thesis: slightly higher SP500, before crash due to unemployment12/9/2023
I - Issue:
Yesterday, the latest unemployment rate for the USA were released. The current rate stands at 3.7, reflecting a decrease of 0.2. The key question now is whether this is merely a test of support or a signal for a potential invalidation of the bottom structure.
R - Rule:
Since 1950, we observe numerous instances where the unemployment rate proves to be a reliable indicator for determining the macro trend of the stock markets.The formation of a bottom signals a peak for the S&P 500, and the initiation of an upward trend is generally considered the least favorable time to invest in stocks.
A - Application:
As per the latest data, the unemployment rate stands at 3.7. As evident from the charts, this marks a breached resistance that is now expected to serve as support. Additionally, there is a current rejection of the upper band of the Bull Market Support Band, but the price remains above it, indicating potential support in this range as well.
Furthermore, in accordance with the Phillips curve, there is a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment. This relationship suggests that the declining inflation, results in an rising unemployment.
C - Conclusion:
The lower unemployment rate currently appears to be a retest of the 3.7 level. It is highly likely that it will stay above this level, given the substantial support from the horizontal support and the Bull Market Support Band. Additionally, the Phillips curve provides an additional reason why unemployment may increase in the coming months. This suggests that, based on this scenario, the stock markets could be approaching a potential peak. Take this into consideration.
The Implications of the US Unemployment Rate - It Is Higher Now What is moving lately? The US unemployment rate has edged up.
We can see from past cycles that when unemployment numbers started breaking above their downtrend, crisis occurred.
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Does the US have an AI problem?This chat compares the monthly unemployment rate and the job openings since 2022. Unemployment has been rising since end of 2023, basically beginning of AI, and available jobs have been down since 2022, all while the market is reaching new highs. It seems that AI brings in more revenue and reduces cost for companies. I wonder if they’ll be any regulations.
Fraud Update - Mainstream NewsLast week, on the television show "Good Morning America", they ran a segment about "the economy".
During this segment, the Disney-owned (short Disney) "news outlet", reported the unemployment rate is 3.7%.
...
......
............ the unemployment rate is currently 4%. No big deal you say? Well, I disagree. Namely because: 1. They're wrong, 2. finding out the unrate is as simple as googling "unrate".
So for some reason the supposedly professional news team at Disney-owned ABC, chose to
incorrectly report a key datapoint.
Lol. Why the fake news, ABC?
Unemployment rate set to explodeUnemployment rate is rising, and the MACD here has never given a false signal after crossover, going back to the 1950's. Crossover does appear imminent, if not a certainty
UNEMPLOYMENT % correlation with bull/bear marketsI saw a Alessio video some years ago about this correlation :
low and falling unemployment rates as an indicator of incoming crash.
Now unemployment rates are climbing from historic lows, as this is bad for the unemployed individual, it is an indicator of better times coming for soc eco
US VS EU UnemploymentUpdate on the US versus Euro Area unemployment rate.
US trending upwards, while the EU Area is quite stable.
US came in at 3.9%
While EU Area is hovering between 6.4% - 6.5%
Economic Overview | The "Yellowstone Bubble"On Thursday, May 16th, I was sipping coffee and watching The Today Show , when a guest appeared on the program to talk about how much money YOU are supposedly making in your 401(k). Oddly enough the commentator - who was identified as the "chief business correspondent for CNN" - then reminded viewers that "you really should only look at your 401(k) once or twice a year"....
What?....WHAT?
My first thought: we don't need to be lectured on how often we should be checking on our retirement funds.
But this got me thinking, WHY do these "professional money managers" insist that working people not pay attention to their money??
I am speculating here, but I assume it is because retirement fund managers (large investment institutions) are also in the business of making money and therefore TAKING PROFIT.
Is there any evidence for this?... Well, yes:
Now factor in all of the nonsense that is constantly pumped by television commentators, meme stock pumpers, crypto fantasies, immature CEOs, and more recently - celebrities and professional athletes.
Have you ever stopped to think about the fact that there is a television commercial for $QQQ... Things have become so obscene that money managers are paying for airtime to deceptively lure regular people into buying their securities, so they can take profits, after already receiving bailouts. You've seen it, there are several versions of the same commercial and the narrative goes something like "I'm investing in QQQ for the future".
The Unemployment Rate has bottomed - there is no more growth to be had and even if we were to see unemployment trend below 3%, we can go back to the early 1950s and 1960s to see that financial markets really DON'T return much more below 3% unemployment; again this is because there is no more growth below 3% and therefore marginally less return.
Credit card delinquency is rising rapidly, thanks to inflation from Covid helicopter money.
And Household Debt-to-GDP has also bottomed. This one is particularly concerning because as we just explained, there is no more growth to be achieved from here (UNRATE). So, ask yourself: what happens if GDP falls ? Answer: household debt as a proportion of GDP rises by at leas that amount (it's a ratio - it has no choice). Expanding on this question, ask yourself: what happens if household debt continues to rise, amid maxed out unemployment? Answer: the already record profit-margins of investment banks increase to highly unstable levels, thereby further incentivizing profit-taking.
Anyway, I am calling this market the Yellowstone Bubble . Everyone is a rich tough-guy cattle rancher, everyone is a crypto professional, everyone thinks "Tesla is the future" (LOL), everyone is an AI expert, everyone is a pro because they scroll forums and listen to some podcast.
In a world that runs on "users" and "clicks" and web traffic, you must remain vigilant!
Take care!
Unemployment vs SPXHow long do we have before the unemployment rate truly starts rising? A couple of months in my opinion.
Every time it starts going up, the SPX starts crashing.
June 2024 could be the market top?
As the FED starts reducing interest rates.
Massive US Unemployment Move Inbound
On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession.
Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever since. Historically, this means that we can expect an aggressive move in unemployment in the following months.
Unemployment Rate including RSI vs SP500 vs Fed Funds RateThis chart illustrates the relationship between the BLS US Unemployment Rate (UR) including the RSI for the UR, plotted against the SP500 (SPX) and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). The data illustrates the idea that the FFR pushes the UR upward, and when the RSI for the UR trends up and crosses 50, the UR then surges upward rapidly (relatively speaking), resulting in a significant sell-off of the SPX.
Unemployment Rate Double Bottoming at a 0.786The Unemployment Rate looks like it's getting ready to spike higher as it Double Bottoms at the 0.786 and cracks above the 21SMA. If this plays out, it will likely spike to the highs or even make a new higher high. During all of this, I expect the macroeconomic data charts below to also play out:
Consumer Credit Balances:
The Mortgage ETF:
US Interest Rates:
The REITs Sector:
Macro Monday 14~Unemployment Rate Rise Macro Monday 14
US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications
The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following;
Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts a regular survey of a sample of households across the country. They ask people whether they are working or actively trying to find work.
Calculation: Based on the survey results, the Bureau calculates the percentage of people who are unemployed (those without jobs but actively seeking employment) compared to the total number of people in the labor force (those who are either employed or actively looking for work).
Reporting: This percentage is then reported as the unemployment rate. For example, if 5 out of every 100 people in the labor force are unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 5%. At present the Unemployment rate is 3.8%.
In simple terms, the unemployment rate is a way to gauge how many people are struggling to find jobs in the United States. In this respect it is an important economic indicator that helps us and policy makers understand the health of the job market.
The Chart
In today’s chart I will be analysing the history of the Unemployment Rate and how it has behaved both before and during recessions. The aim of the analysis is to help us understand the distinct pre-recession patterns and levels that occur prior to recession so that we can prepare ourselves should these levels be breached or these patterns play out again. These historic levels will be placed on the chart for you to monitor from today forward.
Chart Outline:
1. Recessions are the red zones (also numbered & labelled 1 – 12 and on the chart itself)
2. Increases in the Unemployment Rate prior to recession are in blue.
- These blue zones start at the lowest level the Unemployment Rate established prior to the
recession periods in red.
- Basis points (bps) have been used to show the change in the value within the blue zones
(pre-recession zones) e.g. recession No. 2 The Great Financial Crisis had a pre-recession
Unemployment Rate increase from 4.39% - 5.00% which is a 0.61% increase in the
unemployment rate or a 61 bps increase.
- Peaks: I have also included peak bps increases within these pre-recession periods (within
the blue zones). These are times that the Unemployment Rate peaked higher but reduced
thereafter but a recession still followed.
Chart Findings:
1. In 10 out of 12 of the recessions outlined the Unemployment Rate increased in advance of the on-coming recession (in the blue zones) demonstrating that initial early increases to the Unemployment Rate can act as an early recession warning signal:
- An average increase of 33.5 bps over an average timeframe of 7.3 months is observed pre-recession.
- The maximum increase in the pre-recession blue zones was 71bps over 8 months. This max increase was observed prior to 1980 Volcker/Energy Recession no. 6 on the chart (this increase was from 5.59% to 6.30% in the Unemployment Rate itself – a 71bps increase). This recession was induced by Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden increase to interest rates much like those that have been imposed by Jerome Powell over recent months (Volcker was appointed in Aug 1979 and got to work quick).
- The max timeframe for a rising Unemployment Rate prior to recession was 16 months. This was prior to the The Gulf War Recession, no. 4 on the chart (which was considered a short 8 month softer recession). This max 16 month pre-recession timeframe has been marked on the chart to May 2024 in correspondence with today’s pre-recession blue zone timeline – so we know where a max timeline would put us (not a prediction).
- 2 out of 12 times the Unemployment Rate did not increase prior to recession however it did not decrease either, it based at 0 bps or no change (No.1 COVID-19 Crash and No. 5 The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession). Whilst the Unemployment Rate did not increase, they did temporarily peak higher within the blue zones by 10 bps (No. 1) and 31 bps (No.5) demonstrating the importance of peaks and bases formed prior to an Unemployment rate ramp up and recession.
I found the peak increases interesting to include because they illustrate that the Unemployment Rate can oscillate peaking higher temporarily only to form a higher low or return to its starting point, but a peak, if significant enough could be a telling indicator. The most notable peaks are the following; 62 bps (no. 12), 61 bps (no. 9), 60 bps (no. 10), 30 bps (No. 8), 31bps (No. 5) and only 10 bps (No. 2) for the COVID Crash. All of these peaks reduced thereafter within their pre-recession blue zones but a recession still ensued. A sudden increase in the unemployment rate should be taken seriously. I will include a subsequent data table chart that outlines these peaks and all other data utilized for Chart 1’s illustration and findings.
We are currently in dangerous territory as we have passed the average timeframe of 7.3 months of increases to the Unemployment Rate and the Unemployment Rate increased by 40 bps over that period which is higher than the historical average of 33.5bps. We have surpassed both averages. The max historical pre-recession increase is 71 bps (No. 6) so this is a level to watch going forward. This translates to a level of 4.11% in the Unemployment Rate (marked on the chart).
Similar to today’s Unemployment Rate level, there are two very similar instances in the past where the Unemployment Rate increased from c.3.4% to c.3.8% prior to recession (See RED ARROWS on chart). These both took 7 – 10 months to play out with a 10 – 42 bps increase to be established before recession hit. This is very similar to today’s levels which are at 7 months and 40bps of an increase with the 8th month being released this Friday 6th October 2023 which should be very revealing.
We are now well armed with an historical chart as a reference point for any upcoming Unemployment Rate figures released in coming months. We know we have surpassed the averages in terms of timeframe (7 months) and the 40 bps increase is above the avg. 33.5 bps. We can refer back to this chart using Trading View, press play and see if we are breaching the max pre-recession level of 4.11% (the 71bps move) or other extreme pre-recession levels such as the dot.com and GFC Unemployment Rates (both marked on the chart). And if you don’t frequent the chart on trading view I will update you here regardless.
Lets see what Friday brings….
PUKA
