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CBOE Volatility Index: VIXCBOE Volatility Index: VIXCBOE Volatility Index: VIX

CBOE Volatility Index: VIX

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Increased VIX Stress Forecasts Mid-Term Stock SlumpThe recent COT data indicates a sharp increase in stress levels in the VIX. This suggests that market participants are preparing for a rise in volatility, which is usually associated with falling stock prices. Looking at the COT history of the VIX, we can infer the stock market movements during similar stress level increases (green horizontal line): We observed similar phenomena in February 2013, June 2014, October 2016, June 2018, August 2021, and September 2023. We see that all these periods were associated with events that caused increased volatility. Notable mentions include the onset of the Ukraine crisis in the summer of 2014, the US elections in 2016, significant sell-offs in the second half of 2018, and the precursors to the open Ukraine war in the second half of 2021. As the price movements show us, these events did not mean the end of the world. However, it is notable that we are currently in a similar situation, particularly regarding the upcoming US elections. Based on this analysis, we must assume that significant, albeit temporary, price declines are to be expected at least in the medium term.
CAPITALCOM:VIX
by Ochlokrat
2
Time for a VIX blowout?I've been accummulating my VIX puts at it's lows which have tested multiple times during this and last year, finding reaction at all time after consolidation. You can see two potential paths based on previous reactions here. The black trendline has been respected three times with the red one being tested 2/3x times as much. You can also see the bullish divergence on the the daily most recently highlighted with a blue line on the RSI. Stock markets are way overbought and I'm going long on VIX.
CBOE:VIXLong
by SkyTrees
2
VIX | Economic, Geopolitical, and Market DevelopmentsTVC:VIX Key Points: FOMC Decision: Rate Hold: The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, indicating caution due to persistent inflation​ (Home)​​ (Home)​. Market Volatility: VIX Surge : The VIX rose to 23.38, reflecting increased market fear and uncertainty driven by economic and geopolitical factors​ (Home)​. Japan's Economic Challenges: Policy Adjustments : The BOJ raised rates and ended yield curve control but maintained a relatively accommodative stance due to muted inflation​. GDP and Inflation : Japan's GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2024, and core inflation stood at 2.5% year-over-year​. Europe's Economic Landscape: ECB Rates : The ECB's interest rate is at 3.75%, with slow growth expected amid ongoing inflationary pressures​. Geopolitical Tensions: Iran-Israel Conflict : Escalating tensions impact global oil prices and market sentiment​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​. Russia-Ukraine War : The conflict continues to pose significant geopolitical risks, affecting global markets and humanitarian conditions​ (S&P Global)​. US-China Relations : Ongoing strategic competition and trade tensions shape global dynamics​ (EL PAÍS English)​. Cybersecurity Threats : Increasing frequency and severity of cyberattacks threaten national security and financial stability​ (S&P Global)​. Global Elections: 2024 Elections : Major elections in the US, UK, and EU contribute to geopolitical complexity, potentially reshaping policies and market responses​ (EY US)​. Summary: The global economic and geopolitical environment remains volatile. The FOMC's decision to hold rates reflects caution amid persistent inflation. Market volatility, indicated by the VIX surge, is driven by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings. Japan faces economic challenges despite policy adjustments, while Europe contends with slow growth and inflation. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, alongside significant upcoming elections, add layers of complexity for investors and policymakers.
TVC:VIX
by shkspr
VIX $2.9 Trillion wiped on recession fears. Is the worst over?The much lower than expected Nonfarm Payrolls today (114k against a 176k forecast) amplified the global recession concerns and wiped out $2.9 trillion from the stock markets, making it the worst day since the 2020 COVID crash. With Nasdaq down almost -12% from its recent peak, investors are more or less convinced of the necessity of a September Fed Rate cut in order to restore confidence in the market. But is the worst over yet? Well, lets take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which last time we analyzed it (April 16, see chart below), helped us take the most optimal buy entry on the stock market as it got rejected right at the top of its 10-month Channel Down: Today VIX was up almost +90% from its daily Low, displaying enormous market volatility. It is useful in times like these to look at the multi-year price action in order to keep an objective technical perspective. As this 1W chart shows, a VIX price this high is a rare feat since the 2008 Housing Crisis. In fact the break-out above the Channel Down resembles the Highs of December 24 2018 and October 13 2014 (blue circles). Those that been the lowest levels of alerts on the VIX scale, with the medium ones being the orange circles and the worst ones being the red (only happened twice: October 20 2008 and the COVID crash of March 16 2020). At the same time, the 1W RSI just broke above the 70.00 Overbought barrier, which has only happened another 6 times since the 2008 Housing Crisis. It is easy to understand as a result, that this VIX spike has more chances to be corrected in the coming weeks than ending up in a larger stock market correction. On our current chart, the stock market is represented by the S&P500 (black trend-line). As you can see, a strong recovery (green Channel Up) followed after the blue VIX peaks. In the event however that this turns out to be an orange VIX peak next week, the S&P500 is expected to start recovering within 4-6 weeks. Which case do you think it will be? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
3
The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge. In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times. A Geopolitical Powder Keg We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events: Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability. Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran. Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy. Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape. The Role of the Fear Index The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises. Historical Context Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions: Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment. 1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises. 9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks. 2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse. COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions. Methodologies for Calculation Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility: Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility. Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media. Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels. Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions. The Psychological Impact Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by: Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses. Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events. Strategic Applications Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions. Conclusion The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
CBOE:VIXLong
by signalmastermind
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market? #AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet. The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course. But the speculation and new companies will. 20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone. Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
TVC:VIXShort
by BallaJi
1