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How To Know When To Quit (Part 2/2)Hello traders, All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article. I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them. Sharing the second part of this article posted yesterday 5. Know your limits and set rules around it Set out the rules beforehand rather than waiting until you are in it. Because you will not make good decisions then. There are particular states where you’re going to feel suboptimal that have to do with your own physical state. You’re tired, you’re stressed, whatever, but then there are also cognitive states where you’re going to behave sub-optimally. And the particular cognitive state where you’re really going to behave sub-optimally is when you’re in the losses. And the reason that you’re going to be a terrible decision-maker is, except for the part it’s going to cause you to be emotional, is that you’re going to want to get your money back. And this is a really big problem for investors. You start down a path, it starts to lose and you don’t want to sell, because you can’t get your money back. That’s the moment that you go from a loss on paper to a sure loss. It’s when it becomes a realized loss. And that is a moment that we do not like. And so we will come up with all sorts of reasons to think we’re being rational in continuing on, when we’re being completely irrational because we’re just trying to protect ourselves from having that moment of having to take the sure loss. 6. Loss aversion Our loss aversion prevents us from selling investments at a loss. But this extend beyond trading too. Decisions should be made based on the future, not the past. I think people are familiar with loss aversion. We don’t like to start things that carry with them a chance of loss, even if we’re winning to the decision. When you already have a loss on the books, or even a cognitive loss on the books, it was trading at one level and now it’s trading lower, we don’t like to sell. In other words, this becomes loss aversion stops us from starting aka taking trades sometimes. Of course this is irrational, because what matters is, is the next dollar that you spend worthwhile, not did you already spend a dollar. We shouldn’t care. 7. Endowment effect We value things we own, much more than things we don’t own. Even though the opposite might be true. It could be stocks, bonds or our IDEAS. We wrap our identity in things and won’t quit despite the warning signs. And then we also have the issue, which I think is really important for investors, you have something called an endowment. We value things we own, much more than we value things that we don’t own. And it’s not just ownership over investments, we actually own the stock, or we own the bond, or whatever, we own the option, but it’s also our ideas. And every time we invest, we have ownership over our thesis. And here’s the interesting thing, is that when the thing that we’re doing is out of consensus, this is when it gets really bad. So when we think about these issues of sunk cost, and sure loss aversion, and the way our identity gets wrapped up in things, and the way we have ownership over things, and the way that affects our inability to stop, you have to put a big huge blinking warning sign when the thing we’re doing is out of consensus. 9. The kill criteria Think in advance the signals you might see in the future that means that it is time to quit. To continue holding this investment, what do you need to see in the next few quarters or years? Sticking to things too long denies us future opportunities. Think in advance about what are the signals that I might see in the future that would tell me that it’s time to walk away and you will get better at it. What do I need to see within the next quarter or the next two quarters from the way that this investment might perform? Essentially think, “How long can I tolerate this, or how much time do I need in order for me to actually get the information that I would need in order to be able to make a decision?” Figure out what that time period is and then figure, at the end of that time period “What would I have to see? What are the benchmarks that this thing would have to hit in order for me to feel like I ought to continue? And if it doesn’t hit these things, then I should walk away. Quotes of the day - "Losses loom larger than corresponding gains" ― Amos Tversky - "If we could be freed from our aversion to loss, our whole outlook on risk would change"― Alan Hirsch I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :) Thank you for reading Dave
Education
by Daveatt
4
🔥SAM BANKMAN-FRIED: how to become a millionaire❓Chinese recipe❗🔥Hi friends! This is an urgent update for ALL traders. Alameda Research (Sam Bankman-Fried fund), which is an FTX exchange fund, has a large amount of altcoins on its balance. A massive sell-off could happen very soon if the situation does not stabilise. ✅ Also it's a great opportunity fot the traders. 📊 HOW TO BECOME A MILLIONAIRE FOR 1 DAY? SBF CASE! The Bloomberg Billionaires Index has been updated, according to which FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's (SBF) net worth is now $992 million, up from $16 billion yesterday. SBF become a millionaire, but still the multi-millionaire!:) ✅ As far as you know, CZ tweet about FTX token (FTT) force traders to withdraw their money from FTX exchange. This forced CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to start negotiation on selling the exchange due to the risk of bankruptcy. 🚩 ‼️ It is possible that Binance and CZ itself will face legal issues, because many traders lost money because of such "manipulations". More details later. 📊 THE POSSIBLE HUGE DUMP OF ALAMEDA'S ALTCOINS! Alameda Research hold almost 41 crypto coins as FTX echange reserves. If the withdrawal from FTX continues, they will be forced to sell some holding to cover the losses and allow the traders to withdrawal money. 🔥 This is a list of tokens and coins (>$100,000 assets) that can be sold by ALAMEDA in the closest future. 🚩 Such situations is always the opportunity for the well prepared investor or trader. So if you find the best entry point to long or short, the price will FAST reach your take profit on such volatile market. 📊 SOLANA IS UNDER THE BIGGEST PRESSURE! Approximately $320m in Solana tokens could take Alameda Research out of stacking in the next 24 hours. This is approx. 18 M of SOL. Be carefull with this token. 🚩 As far as we know, there are a lot of news that force retail traders to sell while the whales continue to buy. I use DOM and Footprint sclaping tool to track such whales buy/sell orders and share this data with my subscribers. According to this data I will decide to long or to open a short the alts or BTC. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON FTX CHART Now FTT fall for almost 97% from the ATH. The traders in such situations say that the chart is "broken". But I marked 2 value areas for you: 1. $22-33 value area where a lot of tokens were bought and IF price return to this area, a lot of traders/investors will sold their tokens at the breakeven. So we can assume that it will be BIGGEST resistance for the price. 2. $3.4-4.5 very old value area which become the support for the price and already bounced to $5. If everything going OK to FTX and it will not announce bankruptcy, the price can consolidate above or inside this area. At least it will be the most positive scenario for FTX. The worst scenario if FTX token fall below the $3.4-4.5 area and test it as the resistance what will be the disaster for someone who don't use the risk management and opportunity for the short traders. 🔥 Traders, do you buy or sell crypto on this DUMP? BTC or alts? Write in the comments and stay tuned for more updates! 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade
by Yuriy_Bishko
20
🔥FTX IN GAME❓ The HIGHLIGHTS of the day and 3 targets for FTT❗🔥 Hi friends! "I'm sorry. That's the biggest thing.I fucked up, and should have done better.", said CEO FTX Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) in the latest tweets. Today was the day full of news about FTX, so I collect for you the most impotrant for you: 1. The FTX CEO says in a message to his remaining employees that FTX could theoretically still raise capital. Next week, the FTX CEO promises to try very hard in terms of negotiations. Says he is in talks with Justin Sun (Tron founder). 2. Huobi Research has published a list of projects in which FTX has invested directly and with which the exchange has had close links. According to Huobi Research, these projects stand a good chance become the "victims" (to varying degrees) of this crisis. 3. The founder of another cryptocurrency exchange, Kraken, said the FTX situation is a huge blow to the crypto industry, but it will be overcome. 4. The FTX CEO transferred at least $4bn in FTX funds to support his own Alameda (the FTX fund). Some of these funds were client deposits. SBF has not informed other FTX executives of its intention to support Alameda in this way. 🚩 US has launched an investigation against FTX and Co. 5. Tether is freezing an FTX wallet with a balance of 46,360,701 USDT on the TRON blockchain at the request of the SEC until the end of the investigation. 6. FTX HAS TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF ASSETS, COLLATERAL HIGHER THAN CLIENT DEPOSITS - CEO FTX Sam Bankman-Fried. He add that FTX US is safe, but no word about another clients. 🚩 This quote pump the price by 50%! 7. At the end of his message, the FTX CEO added: "At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner, so to speak. But you know, glass houses. So for now I'll just say: well played, you won.". This message is addressed to CZ, the closest competitor and CEO of the Binance exchange. It was CZ that provoked this fall of entire crypto marketwith its statement about the sale of $600M of FTT coins. 🔥8. According to some sources, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is in talks for $9.4bn funding: - $1 billion from Justin Sun (TRON) - $1 billion from OKEX - $1 billion from TETHER - $2 billion from a consortium of funds - the rest $ from other investors ✅ Wouldn't be surprised if Elon Musk is also involved in the deal. 📊 The monopoly of Binance will start, if FTX finnaly scamed. FTX was the top-2 exchange, right after the Binance. So now I recommend you to pay the attention to the strongest BINANCE projects or project based on BNB chain, because they can bring you the HUGE income in 1-2 year. 🚩 Targets for BNB and the BEST Binance crypto coins or project related to Binance I describe in this idea👇 I just got information that FTX has allowed withdrawals. Now only the only active wallet for withdrawal is visible, but withdrawals go to the same addresses and too slowly. Therefore, this news is not yet proven. ✅ Finnaly, I think the FTX exchange will be recovered because it is the largest exchange in the USA. I will continue to monitor the situation and give you best trading plans. Stay tuned! 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FTT CHART AND 3 TARGETS The price fall below the $2.5 key level and collect the sl there. The BEST entry point was at the price close above this level. Now the possible profit is +66%. ✅ If you miss that entry point, I made for you another possible 2 plans that can bring you a profit: 1. squeeze to the local trendline and than the breakout. It will be the best scenario. 2. return the price to the key level and test as the support. It's almost impossible, but i need to inform you about this entry poiny. It is more risky because if the price return to $2.5 the key level might not hold the price. Take a look on the volume indicator. Seems like the liquidation of long traders are finnaly ended, but the liquidation of short traders may strart soon. 🚩 I use DOM and Footprint scalping tools to identify the whales and open a trades with them. I recommend you to use it also cause this tools can add +25-35% to your winrate. ✅ I mark only mid-term targets because see the posibility to make the nice profit: 🔥 $6.5 - the key level and local high 🔥 $10 - key level and even number 🔥 15$ - key level and even number 🚩 Why the price can reach this targets so fast? Because the FUEL for the growth will be the short traders, that will bought back FTT to cover their losses. Remember about risk management and market give you a lot of opportunities! ✅ Traders, what do you think about the FTX situation? Is it possible, that FTX return to previous price or it will scammed soon? Write your thoughts in the comment. 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade!
by Yuriy_Bishko
6
How To Know When To Quit (Part 1/2)Hello traders, All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article. I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them. Splitting this article in 2 parts because it’s dense and I don’t want to lose people who might think “too much text I won’t read” Let’s talk about: – Cognitive biases – Decision-making 1. Be at ease with a bad outcome Focus on the decision-making process instead. Think in probability and play to the best of your hand. Don’t dwell on a bad outcome if the process and decision-making were sound. You have no control over outcomes when luck is involved. Embrace uncertainty. Understand that you have to get down to what do I have control over, and what don’t I have control over. 
And I have to accept the tremendous influence of luck, I have to accept the fact that I’m having to make these very high-stakes decisions without being able to accurately predict where the candles are going. 2. Advice from Eric Seidel: Do not dwell on unlucky events Eric Seidel is a 9-time world series of poker bracelet winner who made $40 million. By all means, discuss what could have been done better. If you played to the best of your "cards", that’s all that matters. He goes, “I don’t want to hear about it if there’s not a question. I don’t care that you got unlucky. I get unlucky too. And I have to deal with losing with two jacks against two nines all the time also. I certainly don’t want to take on your emotional trash about it myself. And what’s the point of talking about it? You made a great call and lost, who cares? Would you have changed anything about what you did? Do you think you got the read wrong? It sounds to me like you did everything right. So why are we even talking about this? I mean this is the thing, if it really was just bad luck, who cares? This is about embracing that uncertainty, right?” 3. All decisions are probabilistic And we make these probabilistic decisions all the time. Consciously or subconsciously. Whether its choosing your partner or the route you are taking to work. You’re making a forecast. The moment we make it explicit, we start to create feedback loops we can learn from. Even if you don’t think you’re doing it explicitly, literally every single decision you make is probabilistic, because it’s a forecast. 
It’s a forecast made under conditions where you don’t have all the facts. 
You generally know very little in comparison to all there is to be known. 
We have to reject the idea that if you’re not doing it explicitly, that you aren’t thinking probabilistically because every decision is a probabilistic decision just by its nature because the world is probabilistic, that is how we decide. Now the act of trying to make these things explicit will make you better at it, because what it will start to do is allow you to create good feedback loops. 4. Don’t trade if you don’t have an edge And we are very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have an edge. Set up structures, write down your thesis. What new information will break your thesis? When should you quit? I think we’re very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have a rational reason, that we have an edge. And I think that that’s particularly so when we’re in a situation where the thesis would affirm other things that we already believe about the world. I think it’s particularly so when we’re already in the investment/trade. So one of the things that we need to do is set up structures around us that will allow us, first of all, to be better at those, are we really being rational and starting… but more importantly, because the starting decision is always uncertain, is to say, as we discover new information after we’ve started, are we stopping, right? Are we figuring out when we should stop? Because it turns out that we’re very, very dense when it comes to actually paying attention to the signals after we’ve started something that we ought to stop it. And that’s where we get particularly irrational. Quotes of the day “Pain is temporary. Quitting lasts forever.” ― Lance Armstrong “The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance“ ― Ed Seykota "Confidence is not “I will profit on this trade.” Confidence is “I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade." ― Yvan Byeajee I'll post the second part tomorrow I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :) Thank you for reading Dave
Education
by Daveatt
32
FTT 22$ suport fail I learned from @TexasWestCapital that the future news can be seen in the chart ( "Others say this: Show me the chart and I'll tell you the news" ) I have this level's for several months ... and I have been looking at the $22 support for a while. I was paying attention if the support holds and the volume increases, for me it was a signal to buy. BUT now i watch 9$ area if hold, next is $3,4 - $4 Sure it's better to do your job and DYOR. This is not financial advice... just my view and can be wrong.
by MynameisTeo
1
Is FTT the next LUNA?Welcome to the Crypto Matrix. Some may call it FUD, some may call it a valid independent view: Alameda, the subsidiary of FTX totally lost control. Looking at the board of Alameda, you can see numerous "kids" - yes I would call them kids, as they obviously did not hear the bell ringing yet - trying to CEO'ing and CTO'ing and wtf else, but obviously dont have any clue about financials. What must have come to their mind to back cash liabilities of roughly 7bn in their balance sheet with unlocked FTT, which in amount exceeds the actual circulating supply of the token?! I mean, even for those guys, who have no clue about a balance sheet, must have known, that you cannot back your liabilities with nothing. The more and more you see those kids, imo is totally loosing any trust in any VC out of Silicon Valley related to crypto. Where does FTT find support? Actually, there is a huge buywall around 15, but as you may know: buywalls are usually bearish. Seems to be something like catching a falling knife, imo atm welcome to the matrix 2.0
Short
by UnknownUnicorn27322477
5
Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on Nov 9 2022The market fell dramatically last night due to the FTX' bearishness. It eventually ended with the founder going bankrupt and Binance acquiring FTX. FTT was eventually counter-voted by the market because it was heavily staked for SBF' shorting. But other unrelated tokens undoubtedly belonged to the wrong side of the equation. BTC fell to around 17,000. Refresh the new low of this round of bear market. The five-wave low has been mentioned many times and will not be lower than the previous low. ETH only fell back to the September horizontal range. Other tokens even spit back the November rise, even the horizontal range did not fail to, just time appeared in the morning 3:30. It is difficult to grasp, but does not affect the long-term position. Now it increases to 7-8%, again pulling down the cost of positions. After all, at the end of the bear, chips than short-term floating earnings are much more important. According to the previous thought, the long-term half position long a single hold unmoved. Short-term positions in October after a sharp rise, it is easy to do to keep profits out. With the market down to 17000, leaving the short-term funds to plunge into the bottom, the total position of the maximum is not more than 80%. So far, the long-term layout has been basically completed. After the operation is not much difficulty, the test of only patience.
by BKEXFutures
2
FTT is Next Luna !!!I told everyone in the last Analyze FTT will Dump... CZ Mission is Done..! One of the reasons the market will dump more is FTT, Look at the chart everything is clear on chart if it can reclaim to 20, the next target is 4.77 and may lower... please share your opinion in the comments I consider all analyses performed in relation to that trade position. Our analysis is not a buy or sell referral. If you found our analysis useful and interesting, feel free to share it so that more individuals might benefit from it. And please don't forget to like and comment; we will read them all.
Short
by Lamassu_Trade
11