FTTUSDT Don't trust this rise unless this line breaksThe FTX Token is having the best daily run since the exchange crashed one month ago and we see a lot of euphoria coming back to the market but be advised that you shouldn't get over-excited as, despite breaking above the 4H MA50 (blue line), the price is still range-bound inside the 1.175 - 2.100 25 day Rectangle. Only a break above 2.100 can be a buy and that's still limited to the 4H MA200 (orange line).
Please like, follow and comment!!
FTTUSDT trade ideas
2 TradingView Strategies for trading crypto:The BarUpDn StrategyTrading cryptocurrency could be highly rewarding using the right indicators and TradingView strategies. A TradingView strategy is a script that can send, modify and cancel buy and sell orders when it recognises specific conditions on the chart. In addition, strategies allow traders to carry out back testing to expose the validity of a strategy while on TradingView charts.
There are numerous strategy options available on the TradingvView. We shall consider two of such strategies in this article: The BarUpDn Strategy and the MACD Strategy.
The BarUpDn Strategy
This strategy continuously checks any quick price changes in the market for the cryptocurrency pair you are monitoring before deciding to go long or short. In addition, the BarUpDn strategy uses the color of bars or candlesticks in its analysis.
Before entering a long position using this strategy, the current candlestick or bar must be green. That is, the close of the current candlestick is larger than the open, and the open of the current candlestick is above the close of the previous bar. For a short position, the current candlestick will be red. By this, the open of the current red candlestick is below the close of the bar that proceeds it.
In this strategy, the moment the percentage loss exceeds the amount specified by the indicator for the day, all opened and running positions will close.
The MACD Strategy
MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. It is widely used by active day traders. MACD strategy indicator on TradingView works on three components: Two Moving averages and a histogram. The two moving averages are essentially Exponential Moving Averages (EMA's lines). The main line is the slow line, which is the MACD, while the second is faster and is the signal line.
When the two lines come together, we call this convergence, and when they are away from each other, we call this divergence. The histogram serves the function of showing the difference between these two moving average lines. The zero line on the histogram is the point where the price of the cryptocurrency pair's momentum is zero. The histogram grows larger when there is a rapid change in the price in the upward direction. At the same time, it shrinks when there is a deceleration in the crypto asset price.
There are three ways a crypto trader could use the MACD strategy indicator on TradingView. They are Crossovers, Histogram Reversals, and Zero Crosses. The Crossover strategy is a lagging strategy because it is based on holding until you see a price movement before opening a trading position. The Histogram Reversal is a leading strategy as it depends on general trends from historical data for trade entry and exit. Finally, the Zero Crosses approach uses the EMAs crossing the zero line as a basis for trading decisions. When the signal line crosses the zero line, it is said to be in an uptrend, and a downtrend when it is below the zero line.
Soon there will be a pump in the FTT currencyHi Guys
According to the chart, soon a pump will occur in the FTT currency and it is a very good place to hold and sell at the price of 7 dollars.
R/R = 29
WOOOOOW VERY VERY GOOD POZITION
Approximate profit 450 %
LIKE & COMMENT PLEASE .
WHATT DO YOU THINK ??!!
Share your comments ...
🔥BREAKING: Binance will delist all FTX pairs❗ Strange decision.🔥 Hi friends! Binance will delist all FTX trading pairs: FTT/BNB, FTT/BTC, FTT/ETH, FTT/USDT.
It is a strange decision for Binance CEO, because the company still not delist Luna and Luna2(LUNC) which was scammed and haven't enough reserves to recover. Investors lose almost $40B in Luna and USDT. Only Binance exchange lose $1.6B invested money.
✅ The same situation with FTT (FTX token). FTX echange announced the bankruptcy and literally scamed and Binance will delist it. We don't already final amount of money what investors and Binance lost, but I think this numbers is really close. Previously, CZ said that Binance gad going to sell $580M in FTT.
📊 WHAT IS GOOD FOR BINANCE IN FTX CRASH❓
Binance become only BIGGEST exchange on the market, because FTX was it closest competitor. The most money from FTX flows into Binance.
🚩 At the last online meeting CZ said that if they could solve the problem of how people store their crypto in their wallets, it would be a big boost for DeFi and the entire crypto industry, for the mass adoption of crypto and that he would not mind if centralised exchanges ceased to exist❗ Also, importantly, he said that they are now very actively investing in DeFi.
I have to add, that a lot Binance or related to Binance projects can copy TWT token chart and starts to grow. I leave here the list of most promises tokens for you:
🔥 BNB
🔥 TWT✅
🔥 CAKE
🔥 LINK
🔥 1inch
🔥 XVS
✅ Traders, was it idea usefull for you? Which coins of Binance seems next gainers to you? Write your thoughts in the comment!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
FTX updated intelNovember 11, 20229:36 PM CST
EXCLUSIVE At least $1 billion of client funds missing at failed crypto firm FTX – sources
By Angus Berwick
Illustration shows FTX logo, stock graph and representation of cryptocurrencies
Representations of cryptocurrencies are seen in front of displayed FTX logo and decreasing stock graph in this illustration taken November 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Summary
Companies
FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sources
Bankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sources
Spreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sources
Executives set up book-keeping "back door" that thwarted red flags - sources
Whereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources
New York, Nov 11 (Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The exchange's founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried's trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.
A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.
article-prompt-devices
Register for free to Reuters and know the full story
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.
The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company's finances by top staff.
Latest Updates
Sam Bankman-Fried's sudden turn from white knight to washout
Crypto exchange FTX files for bankruptcy as wunderkind CEO exits
Analysis: FTX meltdown sparks investor rethink of battered crypto market
Factbox: Sam Bankman-Fried: The crypto mogul whose empire came crashing down
Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.
In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he "disagreed with the characterization" of the $10 billion transfer.
"We didn't secretly transfer," he said. "We had confusing internal labeling and misread it," he added, without elaborating.
Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: "???"
FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was "piecing together" what had happened at FTX. "I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week," he wrote. "I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play."
At the heart of FTX's problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.
Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX's digital token, worth at least $580 million, "due to recent revelations." Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda's $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.
That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX's shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX's finances said.
Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.
Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company's regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.
The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda's assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don't know what became of it.
In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a "backdoor" in FTX's book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.
They said the "backdoor" allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company's financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.
In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a "backdoor".
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com's handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.
FTX's bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become one of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.
The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX's collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.
On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.
FTX is Just Another Market Correction: Liquidity and RegulationsI'm sure you've probably already heard the news about FTX so I won't cover everything - but there's a few things we might expect, longer-term, from the scandal this week.
- More Regulations: This incident embarrassed a lot of powerful people as well, so the likelihood of more substantial regulations coming down the pipe is now much higher.
- Increased Liquidity: Lots of people are pulling money outside of crypto right now, which explains why the prices have dropped so much this week, as a whole. (Especially Solana, which took an outsized hit compared to the rest.) But the money is still there - some will leave, but some will come back...hopefully with better research. It may present an opportunity for smaller alts to grow after the dust settles.
The crypto ecosystem has gone through a few exchange collapses already (ex. Mt. Gox) so crypto itself will still continue to press on. But I fully expect for more stories like these to unfold as we head further into the recession - the money printer has run out of ink, after all.
🔥 FTT Will Go To ZEROWill not go too deep into the whole FTX debacle, chances are that most of you will already know the story.
So, FTX announced yesterday that they're officially filing for bankruptcy. This also includes FTX US, which was previously "not impacted" but actually is. SBF has been lying through his teeth all the way, but that's for another time.
Looking at FTX's native token, FTT, I think it will go to zero. A lot of cryptos have questionable use cases, but for FTT in particular I think we can all agree there's nothing backing this token. If the exchange is dead, so is the native token.
The only hope that holders have is that some party will take over FTX. However, I deem this highly unlikely since the name will never be trusted again.
In my view, FTT will see a very slow and painful death over the next couple of weeks until all major exchanges have delisted the token. I'm also expecting the occasional >50% pump & dump from traders trying to make some quick money, but not a substantial change of trend.
How To Know When To Quit (Part 2/2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Sharing the second part of this article posted yesterday
5. Know your limits and set rules around it
Set out the rules beforehand rather than waiting until you are in it.
Because you will not make good decisions then.
There are particular states where you’re going to feel suboptimal that have to do with your own physical state.
You’re tired, you’re stressed, whatever, but then there are also cognitive states where you’re going to behave sub-optimally.
And the particular cognitive state where you’re really going to behave sub-optimally is when you’re in the losses.
And the reason that you’re going to be a terrible decision-maker is, except for the part it’s going to cause you to be emotional, is that you’re going to want to get your money back.
And this is a really big problem for investors.
You start down a path, it starts to lose and you don’t want to sell, because you can’t get your money back.
That’s the moment that you go from a loss on paper to a sure loss.
It’s when it becomes a realized loss.
And that is a moment that we do not like.
And so we will come up with all sorts of reasons to think we’re being rational in continuing on, when we’re being completely irrational because we’re just trying to protect ourselves from having that moment of having to take the sure loss.
6. Loss aversion
Our loss aversion prevents us from selling investments at a loss.
But this extend beyond trading too.
Decisions should be made based on the future, not the past.
I think people are familiar with loss aversion.
We don’t like to start things that carry with them a chance of loss, even if we’re winning to the decision.
When you already have a loss on the books, or even a cognitive loss on the books, it was trading at one level and now it’s trading lower, we don’t like to sell.
In other words, this becomes loss aversion stops us from starting aka taking trades sometimes.
Of course this is irrational, because what matters is, is the next dollar that you spend worthwhile, not did you already spend a dollar.
We shouldn’t care.
7. Endowment effect
We value things we own, much more than things we don’t own.
Even though the opposite might be true.
It could be stocks, bonds or our IDEAS.
We wrap our identity in things and won’t quit despite the warning signs.
And then we also have the issue, which I think is really important for investors, you have something called an endowment. We value things we own, much more than we value things that we don’t own.
And it’s not just ownership over investments, we actually own the stock, or we own the bond, or whatever, we own the option, but it’s also our ideas.
And every time we invest, we have ownership over our thesis.
And here’s the interesting thing, is that when the thing that we’re doing is out of consensus, this is when it gets really bad.
So when we think about these issues of sunk cost, and sure loss aversion, and the way our identity gets wrapped up in things, and the way we have ownership over things, and the way that affects our inability to stop, you have to put a big huge blinking warning sign when the thing we’re doing is out of consensus.
9. The kill criteria
Think in advance the signals you might see in the future that means that it is time to quit.
To continue holding this investment, what do you need to see in the next few quarters or years?
Sticking to things too long denies us future opportunities.
Think in advance about what are the signals that I might see in the future that would tell me that it’s time to walk away and you will get better at it.
What do I need to see within the next quarter or the next two quarters from the way that this investment might perform?
Essentially think, “How long can I tolerate this, or how much time do I need in order for me to actually get the information that I would need in order to be able to make a decision?”
Figure out what that time period is and then figure, at the end of that time period
“What would I have to see?
What are the benchmarks that this thing would have to hit in order for me to feel like I ought to continue?
And if it doesn’t hit these things, then I should walk away.
Quotes of the day
- "Losses loom larger than corresponding gains" ― Amos Tversky
- "If we could be freed from our aversion to loss, our whole outlook on risk would change"― Alan Hirsch
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
🔥SAM BANKMAN-FRIED: how to become a millionaire❓Chinese recipe❗🔥Hi friends! This is an urgent update for ALL traders. Alameda Research (Sam Bankman-Fried fund), which is an FTX exchange fund, has a large amount of altcoins on its balance. A massive sell-off could happen very soon if the situation does not stabilise.
✅ Also it's a great opportunity fot the traders.
📊 HOW TO BECOME A MILLIONAIRE FOR 1 DAY? SBF CASE!
The Bloomberg Billionaires Index has been updated, according to which FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's (SBF) net worth is now $992 million, up from $16 billion yesterday. SBF become a millionaire, but still the multi-millionaire!:)
✅ As far as you know, CZ tweet about FTX token (FTT) force traders to withdraw their money from FTX exchange. This forced CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to start negotiation on selling the exchange due to the risk of bankruptcy.
🚩 ‼️ It is possible that Binance and CZ itself will face legal issues, because many traders lost money because of such "manipulations". More details later.
📊 THE POSSIBLE HUGE DUMP OF ALAMEDA'S ALTCOINS!
Alameda Research hold almost 41 crypto coins as FTX echange reserves. If the withdrawal from FTX continues, they will be forced to sell some holding to cover the losses and allow the traders to withdrawal money.
🔥 This is a list of tokens and coins (>$100,000 assets) that can be sold by ALAMEDA in the closest future.
🚩 Such situations is always the opportunity for the well prepared investor or trader. So if you find the best entry point to long or short, the price will FAST reach your take profit on such volatile market.
📊 SOLANA IS UNDER THE BIGGEST PRESSURE!
Approximately $320m in Solana tokens could take Alameda Research out of stacking in the next 24 hours. This is approx. 18 M of SOL. Be carefull with this token.
🚩 As far as we know, there are a lot of news that force retail traders to sell while the whales continue to buy. I use DOM and Footprint sclaping tool to track such whales buy/sell orders and share this data with my subscribers. According to this data I will decide to long or to open a short the alts or BTC.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON FTX CHART
Now FTT fall for almost 97% from the ATH. The traders in such situations say that the chart is "broken". But I marked 2 value areas for you:
1. $22-33 value area where a lot of tokens were bought and IF price return to this area, a lot of traders/investors will sold their tokens at the breakeven. So we can assume that it will be BIGGEST resistance for the price.
2. $3.4-4.5 very old value area which become the support for the price and already bounced to $5. If everything going OK to FTX and it will not announce bankruptcy, the price can consolidate above or inside this area. At least it will be the most positive scenario for FTX.
The worst scenario if FTX token fall below the $3.4-4.5 area and test it as the resistance what will be the disaster for someone who don't use the risk management and opportunity for the short traders.
🔥 Traders, do you buy or sell crypto on this DUMP? BTC or alts? Write in the comments and stay tuned for more updates!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade
🔥FTX IN GAME❓ The HIGHLIGHTS of the day and 3 targets for FTT❗🔥 Hi friends! "I'm sorry. That's the biggest thing.I fucked up, and should have done better.", said CEO FTX Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) in the latest tweets. Today was the day full of news about FTX, so I collect for you the most impotrant for you:
1. The FTX CEO says in a message to his remaining employees that FTX could theoretically still raise capital. Next week, the FTX CEO promises to try very hard in terms of negotiations. Says he is in talks with Justin Sun (Tron founder).
2. Huobi Research has published a list of projects in which FTX has invested directly and with which the exchange has had close links. According to Huobi Research, these projects stand a good chance become the "victims" (to varying degrees) of this crisis.
3. The founder of another cryptocurrency exchange, Kraken, said the FTX situation is a huge blow to the crypto industry, but it will be overcome.
4. The FTX CEO transferred at least $4bn in FTX funds to support his own Alameda (the FTX fund). Some of these funds were client deposits. SBF has not informed other FTX executives of its intention to support Alameda in this way.
🚩 US has launched an investigation against FTX and Co.
5. Tether is freezing an FTX wallet with a balance of 46,360,701 USDT on the TRON blockchain at the request of the SEC until the end of the investigation.
6. FTX HAS TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF ASSETS, COLLATERAL HIGHER THAN CLIENT DEPOSITS - CEO FTX Sam Bankman-Fried. He add that FTX US is safe, but no word about another clients.
🚩 This quote pump the price by 50%!
7. At the end of his message, the FTX CEO added: "At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner, so to speak. But you know, glass houses. So for now I'll just say: well played, you won.".
This message is addressed to CZ, the closest competitor and CEO of the Binance exchange. It was CZ that provoked this fall of entire crypto marketwith its statement about the sale of $600M of FTT coins.
🔥8. According to some sources, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is in talks for $9.4bn funding:
- $1 billion from Justin Sun (TRON)
- $1 billion from OKEX
- $1 billion from TETHER
- $2 billion from a consortium of funds
- the rest $ from other investors
✅ Wouldn't be surprised if Elon Musk is also involved in the deal.
📊 The monopoly of Binance will start, if FTX finnaly scamed. FTX was the top-2 exchange, right after the Binance. So now I recommend you to pay the attention to the strongest BINANCE projects or project based on BNB chain, because they can bring you the HUGE income in 1-2 year.
🚩 Targets for BNB and the BEST Binance crypto coins or project related to Binance I describe in this idea👇
I just got information that FTX has allowed withdrawals. Now only the only active wallet for withdrawal is visible, but withdrawals go to the same addresses and too slowly. Therefore, this news is not yet proven.
✅ Finnaly, I think the FTX exchange will be recovered because it is the largest exchange in the USA. I will continue to monitor the situation and give you best trading plans. Stay tuned!
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FTT CHART AND 3 TARGETS
The price fall below the $2.5 key level and collect the sl there. The BEST entry point was at the price close above this level. Now the possible profit is +66%.
✅ If you miss that entry point, I made for you another possible 2 plans that can bring you a profit:
1. squeeze to the local trendline and than the breakout. It will be the best scenario.
2. return the price to the key level and test as the support. It's almost impossible, but i need to inform you about this entry poiny. It is more risky because if the price return to $2.5 the key level might not hold the price.
Take a look on the volume indicator. Seems like the liquidation of long traders are finnaly ended, but the liquidation of short traders may strart soon.
🚩 I use DOM and Footprint scalping tools to identify the whales and open a trades with them. I recommend you to use it also cause this tools can add +25-35% to your winrate.
✅ I mark only mid-term targets because see the posibility to make the nice profit:
🔥 $6.5 - the key level and local high
🔥 $10 - key level and even number
🔥 15$ - key level and even number
🚩 Why the price can reach this targets so fast? Because the FUEL for the growth will be the short traders, that will bought back FTT to cover their losses.
Remember about risk management and market give you a lot of opportunities!
✅ Traders, what do you think about the FTX situation? Is it possible, that FTX return to previous price or it will scammed soon? Write your thoughts in the comment.
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade!
How To Know When To Quit (Part 1/2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Splitting this article in 2 parts because it’s dense and I don’t want to lose people who might think “too much text I won’t read”
Let’s talk about:
– Cognitive biases
– Decision-making
1. Be at ease with a bad outcome
Focus on the decision-making process instead.
Think in probability and play to the best of your hand.
Don’t dwell on a bad outcome if the process and decision-making were sound.
You have no control over outcomes when luck is involved.
Embrace uncertainty.
Understand that you have to get down to what do I have control over, and what don’t I have control over.
And I have to accept the tremendous influence of luck, I have to accept the fact that I’m having to make these very high-stakes decisions without being able to accurately predict where the candles are going.
2. Advice from Eric Seidel: Do not dwell on unlucky events
Eric Seidel is a 9-time world series of poker bracelet winner who made $40 million.
By all means, discuss what could have been done better.
If you played to the best of your "cards", that’s all that matters.
He goes, “I don’t want to hear about it if there’s not a question. I don’t care that you got unlucky.
I get unlucky too.
And I have to deal with losing with two jacks against two nines all the time also.
I certainly don’t want to take on your emotional trash about it myself.
And what’s the point of talking about it? You made a great call and lost, who cares?
Would you have changed anything about what you did? Do you think you got the read wrong?
It sounds to me like you did everything right. So why are we even talking about this?
I mean this is the thing, if it really was just bad luck, who cares?
This is about embracing that uncertainty, right?”
3. All decisions are probabilistic
And we make these probabilistic decisions all the time.
Consciously or subconsciously.
Whether its choosing your partner or the route you are taking to work.
You’re making a forecast.
The moment we make it explicit, we start to create feedback loops we can learn from.
Even if you don’t think you’re doing it explicitly, literally every single decision you make is probabilistic, because it’s a forecast.
It’s a forecast made under conditions where you don’t have all the facts.
You generally know very little in comparison to all there is to be known.
We have to reject the idea that if you’re not doing it explicitly, that you aren’t thinking probabilistically because every decision is a probabilistic decision just by its nature because the world is probabilistic, that is how we decide.
Now the act of trying to make these things explicit will make you better at it, because what it will start to do is allow you to create good feedback loops.
4. Don’t trade if you don’t have an edge
And we are very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have an edge.
Set up structures, write down your thesis.
What new information will break your thesis?
When should you quit?
I think we’re very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have a rational reason, that we have an edge.
And I think that that’s particularly so when we’re in a situation where the thesis would affirm other things that we already believe about the world.
I think it’s particularly so when we’re already in the investment/trade.
So one of the things that we need to do is set up structures around us that will allow us, first of all, to be better at those, are we really being rational and starting… but more importantly, because the starting decision is always uncertain, is to say, as we discover new information after we’ve started, are we stopping, right?
Are we figuring out when we should stop?
Because it turns out that we’re very, very dense when it comes to actually paying attention to the signals after we’ve started something that we ought to stop it.
And that’s where we get particularly irrational.
Quotes of the day
“Pain is temporary. Quitting lasts forever.” ― Lance Armstrong
“The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance“ ― Ed Seykota
"Confidence is not “I will profit on this trade.” Confidence is “I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade." ― Yvan Byeajee
I'll post the second part tomorrow
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave