pullback to previous resistance?its like textbook but in the markets you never know specially in the nikkei, im sure im not the only one who see this, the nikkei its pretty bullish since 2009, only time will tell.
JPN225 trade ideas
NIKKEI225 Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI225 is trading in
An uptrend and the index
Made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 41,000 and the breakout
Is confirmed which reinforces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further move up
Buy!
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NIKKEI225 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅NIKKEI225 price went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 41,106
Thus, as a pullback is already happening
And a move down towards the target of 40,600 shall follow
SHORT🔥
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NIKKEI SHORT 41,000 SL & TP ON CHARTTaking short position on NIKKEI 1% risk 1:5r
Reason for trade is we may see the JPY basket start to bottom out and retrace currently in extremely oversold and undervalued conditions.
JPY pairs looking like they could recover a lot
I see the NIKKEI as overvalued because of the yen bleeding so much this year its a false evaluation of the price, has been drawn up artificially off the back of yen losses which may well be getting plugged now.
41,000-41,1000 is a great area for shorts
How to Trade JPY Weakness With Minimum Intervention RiskFundamentals & Sentiment
JPN225:
- Final data showed that business activity in Japan turned contractionary in June for the first time since November. Technology stocks led the advance, triggering the index to pop higher. The tech sector is the third by weight in Nikkei (~15%).
USD:
- The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode
- Recent US data has been weak (except JOLTS)
JPY
- Continuous JPY depreciation propels Japanese stocks
Technical & Other
Setup: S(B)
Setup timeframe: D
Trigger: 4h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Sideways
Min target: Mar high/ the end of the first breakout leg after Mar high
Risk: 1.19%
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak.
But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NIKKEI 225 - Potential Bearish OpportunityThe Nikkei 225 index has demonstrated a sustained bullish trend over an extended period. However, recent developments indicate a notable divergence and the emergence of a bearish Gartley pattern, suggesting a potential shift towards a downward trajectory. Market analysis indicates that bears could exert control following the completion of the pattern at the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). This observation underscores the importance of monitoring key technical indicators and price action closely to assess the index's future direction accurately.
The Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month High
As we wrote on June 17th, analyzing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ the price formed a consolidation pattern (in the shape of a narrowing triangle);
→ the price formed a bullish reversal from the 38,000 points level (indicated by an arrow), suggesting potential growth and trend establishment upon pattern breakout.
Since then, the price has broken out of the consolidation triangle and today exceeded the 39,800 level - marking the highest point since mid-April.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides more information:
→ the price is in a significant uptrend (shown by the blue channel);
→ after breaking out of the consolidation triangle, the price reached the median line of the channel - implying that the bullish momentum may weaken here, but not necessarily come to an end completely.
It is possible that the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) will continue to rise steadily along the median line, but fundamental factors should be considered as key drivers:
Firstly, the ultra-loose policy of the Bank of Japan, which is beneficial for the growth of Japan's export-oriented enterprises. However, the central bank's policy is increasingly criticized, especially with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing the 'red line' of 160 yen per dollar.
Secondly, the influence of the US stock market. In this regard, it should be noted that:
→ the current rise in the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) is linked to the strong recovery of NVDA shares after three days of decline;
→ upcoming news on US inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index values will be published on Friday at 15:30 GMT+3 and could cause significant volatility in financial markets, potentially affecting the price of the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen).
A significant resistance level is seen at the psychological level of 40,000. After the price surpassed it in March (but failed to hold above it on two attempts), it retraced by more than 9% with the formation of the aforementioned consolidation triangle.
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Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line).
Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month.
Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JP225 Direction The Japanese stock market been rising so far ...here is our JP225 is affected in a good way as bulls are incharge and we will still hold our buy orders while we trailing up with the market so far ...our target is yet to be hitted ...with no further stories...while other don't know what to do the market is bullish and buying
JPN225 1440 - ABCD Emerging : 2 hours agoABCD Fibonacci pattern identified at 6/19 07:00.
This pattern is still in the process of forming.
Possible bearish price movement towards target
levels ranging from 39,011.05 to 36,868.95
within the next 8 days.
Expiry Date/Time: 6/27 08:47
JPN225 240 - Channel Up Emerging : 2 hours agoChannel Up identified at 6/19 03:00. This pattern is
still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price
movement towards the resistance 39,519.47 within
the next 5 days.
Expiry Date/Time: 6/24 03:40
JP225 swing tradeI entered a short position on the Nikkei225 index.
These are the key economic factors and how they impact this trade idea, be it positively or negatively I will give each factor a rating, if the rating is 0, then this factor does not help our position, if it is 1 and above it supports our trade.
Economy
1. Inflation(CPI) We have seen a cooldown in inflation to 2.5% which is decent inflation that supports stocks, therefore it supports indexes. For this trade, it is a negative factor, because we want to short the Nikkei. So this factor gets a 0/1
2. Interest rates The latest hike in interest rates is a negative factor for the Nikkei, this year the BOJ is expected to hike rates more, therefore not helping the index. I'm giving this a rating of 1/1
3. GDP The past 6 GDP filings have been bad for Japan(except for the one in March we got 0.1%) so it is good for our trade idea, I'm giving it a 1/1
4. PMI Both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs show an expansion in Japan's economy, therefore being bad for my position. I'm giving this a 0/2(there are 2 possible points because I count Manufacturing and Services as two separate factors).
5. Retail sales have shown us a decrease starting from April 2023 when we were at 7.20%. Now we are at 2.4% with the latest release beating the forecast significantly, therefore it gets a 1/2
6. Unemployment recently has shown an increase, starting from Jan. 2024 when we were at 2.4%, to now at 2.6%. Overall we have a steady, range-bound unemployment, in the range of: 2.5%<->2.7%. I'm giving this a 1/2 rating because unemployment has increased, but not drastically.
Sentiment
1. Seasonality. Over 10 years the expected result of this month is -1.4% and next month is expected to be -0.8%. The five-year average suggests an even bigger downward momentum. It is expected by both the 5-year and 10-year averages to see a downward move for the rest of the year with a few slightly positive months. Therefore I'm giving this a 2/2
2. Retail positioning shows us that 64% of people are positioned long, we need to take this as an opposite signal because statistically, the masses of people are wrong. Therefore it gets a 1/1
3. COT the latest filing shows us that there was a -7.81% net change in positions, which indicates that large institutions may be starting to sell, the actual long/short contracts show us that only 30.7% of institutions are short, but this is a metric that needs time to change. Also, we see a level at which short positions start to increase and long positions decrease. Therefore I'm giving this a 3/4
Technical
I entered based on an "active zone" I took the entry as shown on the chart, if the index falls rapidly I will add another position, but we have to wait for that. The entry is good so it gets a 1/1
Summary
Trade expected RR: 3
Total points 11/17
64% analytical expectancy. This is good as most of my positions are often 50% to 60%
Nikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First TimeNikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First Time
According to today's Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart, the index quote dropped below 38,000 points at Monday's low, followed by a recovery (shown by an arrow).
One of the drivers of the decline was the automotive sector, whose shares led during the downturn. In particular, according to Reuters, Toyota Motors' shares fell by more than 2% as the company faces difficulties due to a certification scandal. Japanese national broadcaster NHK reported that Toyota will extend the production halt for some models until the end of July.
The fact that the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) price is recovering after dropping below the 38,000 mark suggests a false bearish breakout below this psychological level.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart provides more insight into market dynamics:
→ Since the beginning of 2024, there has been a sharp rise from point A to point B by more than 20%;
→ This was followed by a retracement to point C, which constituted a Fibonacci 0.500 proportion of the A→B impulse;
→ Then there was a rise from C to D, forming a Fibonacci 0.382 proportion of the B→C impulse.
Thus, in the first half of the year, there has been a series of diminishing oscillations forming a triangle pattern, indicating a balance between demand and supply around the 38,380 axis.
Today's potential bullish reversal (which is not yet fully formed) could confirm the relevance of the triangle's lower boundary and direct the price towards its axis.
It is worth noting that the triangle boundaries are narrowing, and a possible imminent breakout of this graphical pattern, formed in the first half of 2024, could lead to the establishment of a noticeable trend.
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NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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Bullish momentum drags Japan downIndices outside Europe traded higher yesterday and the right-wing-weighted European elections pushed Macron in France to call for early national elections. Meanwhile, the euro fell to a record low and European equities suffered from the result. In contrast, the rest of the international indices started their sessions in positive territory, although not all of them ended in the same way. In the case of the US market, the Dow Jones rose +0.18%, the S&P500 +0.26% and the Nasdaq +0.35%. NIKKEI 225(Ticker AT: JP225) closed down on Monday at 39,096 points, today, with the European political inertia, the market opened at 39,168.50 closing at 39,128.50 points. The index has grown by 21.42% this year.
This week, the US monetary policy news added to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) report may strongly affect the index in two days. The weakness of the Japanese yen against the dollar may mark the Japanese basket higher and the governor may try to restrain the currency again. The general sentiment on the index is Strong Buy for investors.
Looking at the chart, the RSI is currently at 57.01% in the middle zone. The price bell that has been forming on the daily chart on the NIKKEI 225 is a triple bell with the upper bell at a high trading level, with the control point (POC) at 38,653 points. If we look at the inertial movement of the chart, there has been a bounce in the correction at 36,650 points zone and currently the price is trying to look for a return to the most traded zone at 39,942 points. If this first price resistance is overcome and the index delivers strong corporate results, we will begin to see the one-day timeframe for the highs target to be reached. At the moment the index, like many other indices is at all-time highs. So it remains to be seen how long this euphoric time lasts in a market with really high inflation.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
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JP225 GRAVITY IMMINENT. CORRECTION IS NEXT.JP225 is already heavily overbought at the current pricepoint and an imminent correction is in order.
NET buying has been fading..
4h lower highs has been spotted -- conveying weakening long momentum.
Expect some trim downs from this levels: 28400
TAYOR.
Nikkei 225 (JP225USD) Short: Start of Wave 3 down1. Completion of double combination wave 2
2. Start of Wave 3 down.
3. Expects Nikkei to fall to 32323
Nikkei, bias to look for short...BUTHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Bias to look for short on Nikkei, but let's see how, the price action seems choppy lately..
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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J225 - BUYJ225 Moving in Bullish Parallel Channel with making HH and HL at 4H TF.
Price is at lower trend line of Channel and Fib 79% completed here.
NiKKEi the Empire who saw Tomorrow 100 years ago
the OG in quantitative zero cost coupons and negative rates
with subways in the 1930s
touchscreens ai robotics in the 70s
and rise of gaming in the 80s
still is a decade ahead among developed countries
and 100 years++ ahead the rest of the emerging economies
Nikkei 225 is at flag supportIntraday Update: The Nikkei is flirting with flag support. A breakdown lower could put a bid in the #JPY. This market is underperforming the ROW for the most part which is a departure from most of 2023.
JPN225 Buy SetupMonthly & Weekly timeframe above the could
H4 breaking out the cloud for a buy setup
