One last squeeze and NAS100 could explode into the next rallyThe NAS100 is currently coiling within a tight consolidation range, showing signs of tension building up. After a strong push upward, price has been moving sideways in a narrowing structure. This build-up around the high, a compression of buyers and sellers in a low-volatility squeeze could be an indication that we could use. This kind of price action typically signals that buyers are gaining control, squeezing out sellers with each dip.
The lack of deep pullbacks combined with increasingly shallow sell-offs shows fading bearish momentum. Which is often typical during a buildup phase before a breakout. If buyers can push price above with a strong close, it could trigger breakout momentum and lead to a continuation of the larger bullish trend.
Ideally, if price reacts positively and forms bullish confirmation, it would set up a solid continuation entry, with upside potential toward the next target of 23.400.
Until then, bulls are watching closely for signs of commitment. The breakout is yet to be confirmed, but the squeeze is on, and the pressure is building.
What will happen next?
Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NAS100 trade ideas
US100: The only risk remains Trump with his tariffs.US100: The only risk remains Trump with his tariffs.
US100 is in a strong uptrend and the chances of it rising are still high.
The price has already found a strong support near 22600 and I think it is preparing to start an uptrend soon.
The only risk for the Indices is related to Trump and his tariffs. This is the only threat I see at the moment.
Key targets: 22875 ; 22997; 23075
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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NASDAQ price dropAfter the Nasdaq price reaches around 23642.2, a historic drop will occur and the target is to drop to 16308.
Whatever happens at the highest price, the final destination is towards 16308.
I have identified the price levels in the middle of this expected drop that can cause the price to correct.
IG:NASDAQ
NASDAQ Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a selling opportunity around 22,750 zone, NASDAQ is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 22,750 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NAS100 - Bearish Triangle Breakdown Forming!NAS100 - Bearish Triangle Breakdown Forming!
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the NAS100 30-min chart, signaling potential volatility ahead. We’re nearing the apex of the triangle, and price action suggests a possible bearish breakout.
🎯 Entry: 22,750.00
🎯Target: 22,400.40
⛔ Stop Out: 22,850.88
The risk/reward setup is favorable if the breakout follows through. Keep a close eye on volume confirmation as price exits the triangle.
What do you think about this triangle formation? Will the breakdown hold, or could bulls trap the shorts again?
💬 Share your opinion below and let’s discuss the setup!
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US100 rises sharply, with further upside target of 23,000At this stage, US100 continues to ride a dominant ascending channel structure, maintaining a consistent bullish structure supported by strong fundamentals as well as technical positioning.
The current price action reflects a high-confidence trend environment, underpinned by steady economic resilience in the U.S. tech sector and growing investor optimism surrounding AI-driven growth and corporate earnings. This alignment between structure and sentiment reinforces the strength of the current trend.
What’s especially encouraging is how the price has remained in the upper half of the ascending channel. Every corrective move has been shallow and absorbed quickly as well. This kind of behavior is exactly what you want to see in a strong trend.
From a structural perspective, the recent break of the prior swing high confirmed a bullish break of structure (BOS), reinforcing the broader uptrend. That’s a meaningful move, not just technically, but also psychologically, as it validates that bullish momentum remains intact and market participants are still positioning for higher levels.
No signs of weakness are showing up yet. If anything, the structure is intact and there’s no evidence of a shift in momentum. This makes it a good opportunity for traders who are "late to the party" to consider entering, as the trend still looks strong and continuation is likely.
As for upside targets, the 23,000 level is a natural extension. It aligns with the middle of the channel and fits within the current rate of expansion. If we don’t see any warning signs (like impulsive bearish candles), this target remains both technically justified and psychologically relevant.
Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NAS100 Setup Locked In — Ride the Drop from the Order Block!Hey Guys,
I'm planning a sell trade on the NAS100 index from a designated order block. Once price reaches the sell zone, the position will be activated.
📍 Trade Details:
- 🟢 Entry Level: 22,869
- 🔴 Stop Loss: 22,930
- 🎯 TP1 – First Target: 22,839
- 🎯 TP2 – Second Target: 22,794
- 🎯 TP3 – Final Target: 22,671
📐 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 3.24
Your likes and support are what keep me motivated to share these analyses consistently.
Huge thanks to everyone who shows love and appreciation! 🙏
US100 SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 22,684.7
Target Level: 22,082.0
Stop Loss: 23,085.2
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 10h
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US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
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NASDAQ going to 23500 by August.Nasdaq (NDX) is trading above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance, staging a very structured uptrend that has recently gotten out of a 1D Golden Cross.
As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to support, we might get a repeat of the November - December 2024 rally that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level from he August 2024 Low.
That whole July - October 2024 pattern is quite similar to the February - June 2025 of today. A quick pull-back is possible at this stage but by the end of August, we expect the index to test at least the 23500 level.
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Bearish Momentum Builds Below pivot zone USNAS100 Analysis
Price has reversed from its ATH and now shows bearish momentum.
Below 22705, downside targets are 22615 and 22420.
Bullish scenario only valid if price breaks and holds above 22815.
Pivot: 22710
Support: 22615, 22420
Resistance: 22815, 22910
NSDQ100 Bullish Flag continuation pattern developing Metals Market Volatility
Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on copper imports triggered a sharp drop in London copper prices (~2%), with risks of falling below $9,000/ton. While U.S. prices spiked on supply concerns, the global move reflects industrial demand fears—potentially weighing on manufacturing and cyclical stocks.
Trade Negotiations Intensify
Asian trade delegates have logged over 350,000 air miles traveling to Washington as tariff timelines remain unclear. Ongoing uncertainty is capping broader risk appetite, though delayed duties and active talks are offering short-term relief to markets.
Fed Under Pressure
Trump ramped up criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him “terrible,” and may consider replacing him with top adviser Kevin Hassett. This raises questions about central bank independence and future rate policy, a potential headwind for investor confidence.
Market Snapshot
U.S. stock futures: Slightly higher
Oil: Up, on Red Sea conflict
Gold: Down, as risk appetite stabilizes
Conclusion – Nasdaq 100 Trading Outlook
Near-term view: Mildly bullish, supported by easing trade tension and tech sector strength.
Caution warranted: Watch for headline risks from new tariff announcements or Fed-related developments.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22940
Resistance Level 2: 23060
Resistance Level 3: 23180
Support Level 1: 22410
Support Level 2: 22300
Support Level 3: 22130
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Long position idea on Nasdaq Simple and precise idea of Nasdaq. Bullish momentum in full swing. Nasdaq recently broke out of the previous High/Resistance and shows that the bulls are still in power. Take profit is at 25.000.00 because Nasdaq usually moves around 10.000 pips after a market crash so when doing my calculations from previous Low of 16300, my estimation is around 25000 which equals to 9,000 - 10,000 pips.
NSDQ100 Bullish breakout retest?Donald Trump escalated trade tensions again, threatening a 35% tariff on Canadian goods shortly after reopening trade talks, and floated doubling global tariffs to 20%. This reinforces his aggressive protectionist stance and puts renewed pressure on allies like Canada and Vietnam, the latter blindsided by a 20% levy. Meanwhile, US-China relations may be entering a critical phase, with a possible Trump-Xi summit hinted at by Marco Rubio during talks in Malaysia.
On the geopolitical front, Trump is signaling a harder line on Russia, previewing a “major statement” and backing expanded sanctions as the US sends more weapons to Ukraine. This raises global uncertainty, especially for energy and defense sectors.
Conclusion for NSDQ100 trading:
Rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks may dampen market sentiment and lead to volatility in tech-heavy Nasdaq stocks, particularly those reliant on global supply chains. While traders have grown numb to tariff talk, the cumulative pressure suggests a downside risk is building. In the short term, maintain a cautious stance—watch for potential pullbacks and heightened intraday volatility as policy clarity remains elusive.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22940
Resistance Level 2: 23060
Resistance Level 3: 23180
Support Level 1: 22410
Support Level 2: 22300
Support Level 3: 22130
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
NASDAQ Key Levels July 7 2025If NY fails to reclaim 22,755–780 early in the week, expect a grind back toward 22,644 → 22,600, with 22,520 in play only if volume confirms. Reclaiming and holding above 22,800+ would invalidate this bearish setup.
Watch for trap volume, delta reversals, and volume imbalances at all key zones before entering.
22,880 – 🔻 Weekly wick top
➤ Major rejection zone with a stop cluster sitting above.
22,800–820 – 🧱 Possible NY trap zone
➤ Trap absorption detected here on footprint — watch New York for rejection or breakout.
22,755–22,780 – 🔁 Retest zone
➤ Multiple trap wicks with low delta on 1H/15M. Likely to bait breakout traders before fading.
22,700 – ⚠️ Structural demand / pivot point
➤ A clean break + hold below = bearish market shift.
22,644 – ✅ Session low / Take Profit 1
➤ If 22,700 breaks, this is the first clean downside target.
22,600 – 🎯 Daily value zone
➤ High-probability liquidity target if selling extends below 22,644.
22,520 – 🧨 Final sweep target
➤ Only likely if New York session sells off hard mid-to-late week.
US100 — New ATH Trading SetupThe price recently previous ATH at the 22730 level. Current ATH is marked near 22,800, with a POC at 22,640.
Potential support around 22,500, below POC.
Watch for a bounce or further rise beyond 22,920.
Buyers probably will push right through 23,000 level today on Micros and Minis.
Nas Long to clear HH liquidity before correctionHTF Context – Monthly / Weekly / Daily
• Big Beautiful Bill (Trump Tax + Spending Bill)
o Passed July 4th, acting as a stimulus.
o Markets historically rally on fiscal stimulus expectations (tax cuts + spending packages).
o This fuels bullish sentiment short-term, but long-term raises debt, inflation risk, and rate hike concerns.
• Seasonality
o July is typically strong for equities, especially tech, with mid-July often marking local tops before August pullbacks.
• Monthly structure
o Strong bullish monthly candles.
o Next major fib retracements if rejected: 38.2% ~20,398, 50% ~19,625, 61.8% ~18,852.
• Weekly / Daily structure
o HH-HL sequence continues.
o Price in premium zone, approaching major supply block 23,200–23,300.
o Daily BOS not broken downwards yet.
________________________________________
Key Levels
• Major supply / liquidity magnet: 23,200–23,300 (sell-side OB in futures, uncollected liquidity above HH)
• Recent swing high: 22,900
• Daily pivot: 22,470
• Intraday demand zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H wedge base + VWAP)
• Weekly support shelf: 22,100–22,200 (if lost, major trend shift bearish)
________________________________________
My View – Most Likely Path
1. Price is likely to sweep the liquidity above recent highs into the 23,200–23,300 supply zone.
o Why? Market rarely leaves liquidity uncollected. This move traps breakout buyers and hits stops above HHs.
o Big Beautiful Bill fuels the final squeeze higher as algorithms price in fiscal stimulus.
2. After liquidity sweep above 23,200–23,300:
o Expect strong rejection from that zone.
o Institutions offload positions into trapped retail longs.
o Price pulls back towards daily and weekly support zones for reaccumulation.
3. Alternate scenario (less likely)
o Immediate sell-off from current levels without sweeping HH.
o Weak move; would still expect a revisit higher later to clear liquidity before a proper downtrend.
________________________________________
Trade Setups – Intraday & Swing
Intraday Long (Most Likely)
• Bias: Bullish continuation
• Entry Zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H demand + VWAP)
• Trigger: 5m/15m BOS up
• Stop: Below 22,300.
• Targets: First at 22,615, next at 22,845, final at 23,200–23,300.
________________________________________
Intraday Short (Countertrend / Liquidity Sweep Reversal)
• Bias: Short from supply after liquidity grab
• Entry Zone: 23,200–23,300
• Trigger: Sweep of HH with rejection wick or bearish engulfing candle
• Stop: Above 23,350 (structure invalidation).
• Targets: First at 22,845, then 22,600, extend to 22,450 if momentum accelerates.
________________________________________
Swing Long (Continuation)
• Bias: Bullish trend intact
• Entry: After retest of daily pivot (22,470) or 4H demand (22,350–22,450) with 4H CHoCH + BOS up.
• Stop: Below 22,200 (weekly support break invalidates).
• Targets: 22,845 then 23,200–23,300. Blue sky if above.
________________________________________
Swing Short (Only if structure breaks)
• Trigger: Daily close below 22,200
• Bias: Bearish trend shift
• Targets: 21,800 first, then 21,000 major fib cluster and weekly MA.
________________________________________
Summary – My Final Opinion
Price is in a strong uptrend fuelled by fiscal stimulus, rate cuts and tarrif hopes . I think it will sweep the liquidity above 23,200–23,300 before any deeper pullback or trend reversal. Any rejection from that supply zone will be the cue to short for a structural retracement. Until then, I’ll keep buying dips aligned with the HTF bullish structure.
Overfitting Will Break Your Strategy — Here’s Why█ Why Your Backtest Lies: A Quant’s Warning to Retail Traders
As a quant coder, I’ve seen it time and again: strategies that look flawless in backtests but fall apart in live markets.
Why? One word: overfitting.
Compare the signals in the images below. They’re from the same system, but one is overfitted, showing how misleading results can look when tuned too perfectly to the past.
⚪ Overfitting is what happens when you push a strategy to perform too well on historical data. You tweak it, optimize it, and tune every rule until it fits the past perfectly, including every random wiggle and fluke.
To retail traders, the result looks like genius. But to a quant, it’s a red flag .
█ Trading strategy developers have long known that “curve-fitting” a strategy to historical data (overfitting) creates an illusion of success that rarely holds up in live markets. Over-optimizing parameters to perfectly fit past price patterns may produce stellar backtest results, but it typically does not translate into real profits going forward.
In fact, extensive research and industry experience show that strategies tuned to past noise almost inevitably disappoint out-of-sample.
The bottom line: No one succeeds in markets by relying on a strategy that merely memorized the past — such “perfect” backtests are fool’s gold, not a future edge.
█ The Illusion of a Perfect Backtest
Overfitted strategies produce high Sharpe ratios, beautiful equity curves, and stellar win rates — in backtests. But they almost never hold up in the real world.
Because what you’ve really done is this:
You built a system that memorized the past, instead of learning anything meaningful about how markets work.
Live market data is messy, evolving, and unpredictable. An overfit system, tuned to every quirk of history, simply can’t adapt.
█ A Warning About Optimization Tools
There are many tools out there today — no-code platforms, signal builders, optimization dashboards — designed to help retail traders fine-tune and "optimize" their strategies.
⚪ But here’s the truth:
I can't stress this enough — do not rely on these tools to build or validate your strategy.
They make it easy to overfit.
They encourage curve-fitting.
They give false hope and lead to false expectations about how markets actually work.
⚪ The evidence is overwhelming:
Decades of academic research and real-world results confirm that over-optimized strategies fail in live trading. What looks good in backtests is often just noise, not edge.
This isn’t something I’ve made up or a personal theory.
It’s a well-documented, widely accepted fact in quantitative finance, supported by decades of peer-reviewed research and real-world results. The evidence is overwhelming. It’s not a controversial claim — it’s one of the most agreed-upon truths in the field.
█ Why Overfitting Fails
Let me explain it like I do to newer coders:
Random patterns don’t repeat: The patterns your strategy "learned" were noise. They won't show up again.
Overfitting kills the signal: Markets have a low signal-to-noise ratio. Fitting the noise means you've buried the signal.
Markets change: That strategy optimized for low-volatility or bull markets? It breaks in new regimes.
You tested too many ideas: Try enough combinations, and something will look good by accident. That doesn’t make it predictive.
█ The Research Backs It Up
Quantopian’s 888-strategy study:
Sharpe ratios from backtests had almost zero predictive power for live returns.
The more a quant optimized a strategy, the worse it performed live.
Bailey & López de Prado’s work:
After testing enough variations, you’re guaranteed to find something that performs well by chance, even if it has no edge.
█ My Advice to Retail Traders
If your strategy only looks great after a dozen tweaks… It’s probably overfit.
If you don’t validate on out-of-sample data… you’re fooling yourself.
If your equity curve is “too good” to be true… it probably is.
Real strategies don’t look perfect — they look robust. They perform decently across timeframes, markets, and conditions. They don’t rely on lucky parameter combos or obscure filters.
█ What to Do Instead
Use out-of-sample and walk-forward testing
Stick to simpler logic with fewer parameters
Ground your system in market rationale, not just stats
Risk management over performance maximization
Expect drawdowns and variability
Treat backtest performance as a rough guide, not a promise
Overfitting is one of the biggest traps in strategy development.
If you want your trading strategy to survive live markets, stop optimizing for the past. Start building for uncertainty. Because the market doesn’t care how well your model memorized history. It cares how well it adapts to reality.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NAS100 CAUTION - Realistic Perspective!!Dear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
This rising channel represents severe overbought greed territory.
A very big correction might be around the corner or in the near future.
Daily and Weekly RSI Divergence could be forced to re-balance at any time.
Keynote:
This is not a contradiction of my previous NASDAQ post.
Short-Term strong bullish price action can still prevail.
But please keep this big picture in mind from here on end.
Feel free to ask questions if anything is unclear.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.