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NAS100 still in retracement, we had market structure shift on weekly with bearish momentum. Currently the market is still selling with the next support at 18447-18303. The most recent broken support which might act as resistance is at 19707-19916.

Either we get price to retest the above resistance and reject or we get a direct breakdown of 19177 for downtrend continuation down to 18447-18303. A breakout above 19707-19916 would invalidate the current bearish market and could indicate a possible reversal into the uptrend.

PS: We do start to have bullish divergence at 4h with a triple bottom having formed and momentum oscillator increasing but whether this is going to be a small retracement or the beginning of a reversal into the uptrend remains to be seen by the price action.
Snapshot


US100 In 2022 the first leg of the drawdown was a bit over 17% from top to bottom before a LH relief rally got rejected by the 200 day SMA and then went lower to a new LL. We're not there quite yet but if this pattern is indeed repeating then this index could fall to 18500 before a relief rally starts and fails/succeeds.

When you break a multi year uptrend and start holding below the 200 day SMA markets tend to punish early bulls that step in simply because they feel like the selloff is overdone and will keep hunting stop losses to the downside before abruptly shifting to powerful short squeeze rallies that are ultimately prone to failure.




US100 So….it was a Bear Flag and yesterdays move up was a FAKE OUT..so Immediately after creating its first HHHL in weeks, the NAS printed a LLLH the next day….the NAS continued its bearish wave today but experienced turbulence along the way.

Notably, it has not tested the current weeks low….yet.

It is very likely that this will take place tomorrow…and the immediate focus will be how low can it go…..

Well…the first pit stop looks like 18900…