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Dollar Index DXY AnalysisSince the start of 2025, the US Dollar index DXY has faced a downside pressure driven by several key factors: * Ongoing uncertainty around the US President trade tensions with major economies. * Global Central banks reducing dollar exposure and reallocation toward other currencies and Gold. * Growing market expectations for Fed rate cuts starting Sept-25. * Raising concerns regarding US Debt levels, amplified recently by the "Big Beautiful Bill" * Renewed clashes between Trump & Powell, raising concerns regarding the Feds credibility. With all the factors above affecting DXY negatively, we have key major areas to keep our eye on: * Breaking below the 96.5 we could visit the 95.5, and with additional sellers' momentum we could see the next level of 93.5 * On the other hand, if we have economic data supporting dollar strength. Breaking above 97.7 our next target could be 98.5, and with additional buyers' momentum we could revisit the 100-level flat. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:USXUSD
by easyMarkets
USD Roadmap: Bullish Recovery or Structural Breakdown?TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY 🟢 Scenario A – Bullish Rebound (Red Arrow Up): Price bounces from the lower channel and breaks toward: 107.348, 110.176, or even 111.901 resistance area. If the dollar is supported by China buying USD, hawkish Fed, or geopolitical tensions, this scenario gains weight. 🔸 Resistance: Blue downward-sloping line (possible trendline resistance or lower high area) 🔸 Risk: Price could form a lower high and then reverse. 🔴 Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown (Red Arrow Down): If the USD fails to break above resistance (around 107–112) and gets rejected… Then we see a move back down, possibly breaking the long-term channel, aiming for the lower diagonal support zone or even sub-92. 🔸 This would signal a major shift in USD strength, possibly driven by: Fed rate cuts Global de-dollarization China not supporting USD Stronger EUR or CNY
TVC:DXYLong
by Trwin
DXY IS BULLISH, SELL EURUSD, GBPUSD, WANNA BET?My last publish about dxy was stopped out but that doesn't invalidate the trade. We will still see a bullish dollar and bearish EURUSD AND GBPUSD. SL @ 96.775 TP 1 @ 97.620 TP 2 @ 98.285 TP 3 @ 99.420 Use this trade to learn compounding and grow your account. Dont just take 10 pips and run off, once in profit,add more at a discount prices. The TP is certain Enjoy Follow me as my trades are market order, so you will see them on time and enter on time.
TVC:DXYShort
by UGBOR
Forex Weekly Round-Up - 30th Jun 25Dollar Index: Dollar Index declined further, hovering near 97.0–96.9 — its weakest level since February 2022. Key Driver: Markets digested a slightly hotter US core PCE inflation report (+2.3% YoY for May), paired with weak personal spending, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve might pivot to rate cuts later this year. GBPUSD: The pound surged, touching highs around 1.3770 — its strongest in nearly four years — before dipping slightly to finish the week near 1.3720 Weekly gain clocked in around +2%, the largest move since early March Rally Fuelled By : Broader dollar weakness, easing Middle East tensions (ceasefire), and dovish Fed signals suggesting potential rate cuts. EURUSD The euro enjoyed a rally, peaking near 1.1754 — its highest since September 2021 — before closing the week around 1.1720 Weekly gain came to approximately +1.7% to +1.9%, driven by euro strength and broad weakness in the US dollar Traders are eyeing upcoming US data (PCE inflation, Michigan sentiment) for next directional cues ------------------------------------ I will be approaching the markets differently from now on. Based on the feedback from past analysis, I will be compiling all related pairs into one video, giving you guys the ability to see how one asset affects the other. This is called inter-market relationship and it's something i've been doing for years. It gives you confidence on what pairs are 'Hot Picks' and the ones that have a high chance of not delivering the way you want.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
DXY (Dollar Index) longs to shortsThe dollar has been bearish for several weeks, but we’re now starting to see signs of a potential retracement due to price being in oversold territory. Last week, DXY reacted from a key weekly demand level, suggesting that we could see some short-term bullish movement before any continuation to the downside. I’ll be watching closely for price to either push higher into liquidity or retrace slightly deeper into more discounted demand zones for a cleaner long setup. This would also align with my short setups across other major pairs, making DXY strength a key narrative this week. Confluences for DXY Longs: DXY has been bearish for an extended period — now showing signs of accumulation on higher timeframes Price may retrace upwards to collect liquidity before continuing its macro downtrend Recently reacted from a major weekly demand zone Imbalances and liquidity above, including Asia highs, remain untapped P.S. If price fails to react from any of my current POIs, I’ll patiently wait for new zones to develop and adjust accordingly — always staying aligned with what price tells us. Let’s stay sharp and crush the week ahead!
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
🇺🇸 Today's U.S. Data: Tariffs Starting to Bite?U.S. Data Journal – July 3, 2025 Today's U.S. economic releases showed a stronger-than-expected labor market, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) surprising to the upside, alongside increases in factory orders and a solid ISM Services PMI print. The combination of these indicators points to persistent demand strength across both goods and services. Moreover, the upward trend in factory orders and service sector activity suggests that tariffs are beginning to feed into cost structures, adding inflationary pressure from the supply side. While the labor market remains resilient, the risk is that sticky input costs—partly tariff-driven—may complicate the disinflation narrative and potentially delay any dovish policy shift from the Fed.
TVC:DXY
by mehrshad31
USD Tries to Break the Tide at NFPIt's been a painful week and a half for the USD. Around the June FOMC meeting a hopeful bounce had built as the Fed sounded a bit less-dovish. While inflation remains below their expectations the labor market had held up relatively well, and with the threat of possible inflation from tariffs they didn't seem to be in any hurry to cut rates. But then last week opened with Michelle Bowman saying she supported a rate cut as early as July, and DXY put in a bearish engulfing pattern. And then into the end of Q2 it was constant bleeding as the currency continued to trip down to fresh three-year lows. Interestingly, the shocking miss on ADP data this morning illustrates weakness in the labor market, yet the USD is currently showing its first green day since last week's open. This is likely more due to just how oversold the currency has become but it sets the stage for NFP tomorrow. While that data point is a major driver, it's supply and demand, which is denominated by positioning, that pushes prices. For tomorrow the interest is in a better-than-expected NFP print bringing a short-term squeeze in the USD, after which markets will get a look to see just how aggressive bears remain to be. The big area of interest for this is the prior swing low, at the 97.91 level, which set support in April and then held the lows in June, until the late-month breakdown move. To date that spot still hasn't been tested for resistance and if sellers do get a chance to offer at that level, we get to see how aggressive they remain to be. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY Outlook: Mild Bearish Movement Anticipated 4hrThe DXY (US Dollar Index) appears to be entering a mild bearish phase, with a potential move down from the 97.721 level. Based on current momentum and technical indicators, it is likely to approach key support zones between 96.22 and 96.00, where a bullish reversal could potentially occur. However, there is a reasonable chance the market could extend its decline beyond these levels, possibly reaching as low as 95.404 before finding a more stable support base.
TVC:DXYLong
by ProfissionalGoldHntryhunter
DOLLAR INDEX BY 1;30 PM we are expecting the average hourly earnings m/m with a forecast 0.3% and previous 0.4% and Non-Farm Employment Change forecast 111K below past data of 139K the rate of Unemployment is forecasted to be lower as monetary team is looking at 4.3% against previous data of 4.2% but yesterday ADP -33k have given a clue that Non-farm data will come soft which will trigger sooner rate cut by feds. dollar index and US10Y will be watched to see the direction of investment by investors. if NON FARM EMEPLYMENT CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT DATA REPORT COMES GREATER THAN FORECAST, DOLLAR AND US10Y WILL RISE AND WE SHORT GOLD ,AUDUSD SELL,GBPUSD SELL,EURUSD SELL ,USDJPY BUY. THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Economic Red Alert: China Dumps $8.2T in US BondsThe Great Unwinding: How a World of Excess Supply and Fading Demand Is Fueling a Crisis of Confidence The global financial system, long accustomed to the steady hum of predictable economic cycles, is now being jolted by a dissonant chord. It is the sound of a fundamental paradigm shift, a tectonic realignment where the twin forces of overwhelming supply and evaporating demand are grinding against each other, creating fissures in the very bedrock of the world economy. This is not a distant, theoretical threat; its tremors are being felt in real-time. The most recent and dramatic of these tremors was a stark, headline-grabbing move from Beijing: China’s abrupt sale of $8.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, a move that coincided with and exacerbated a precipitous decline in the U.S. dollar. While the sale itself is a single data point, it is far more than a routine portfolio adjustment. It is a symptom of a deeper malaise and a powerful accelerant for a crisis of confidence that is spreading through the arteries of global finance. The era of easy growth and limitless demand is over. We have entered the Great Unwinding, a period where the cracks from years of excess are beginning to show, and the consequences will be felt broadly, from sovereign balance sheets to household budgets. To understand the gravity of the current moment, one must first diagnose the core imbalance plaguing the global economy. It is a classic, almost textbook, economic problem scaled to an unprecedented global level: a glut of supply crashing against a wall of weakening demand. This imbalance was born from the chaotic response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 and 2021, as governments unleashed trillions in fiscal stimulus and central banks flooded the system with liquidity, a massive demand signal was sent through the global supply chain. Consumers, flush with cash and stuck at home, ordered goods at a voracious pace. Companies, believing this trend was the new normal, ramped up production, chartered their own ships, and built up massive inventories of everything from semiconductors and furniture to automobiles and apparel. The prevailing logic was that demand was insatiable and the primary challenge was overcoming supply-side bottlenecks. Now, the bullwhip has cracked back with a vengeance. The stimulus has faded, and the landscape has been radically altered by the most aggressive coordinated monetary tightening in modern history. Central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, hiked interest rates at a blistering pace to combat the very inflation their earlier policies had helped fuel. The effect has been a chilling of economic activity across the board. Demand, once thought to be boundless, has fallen off a cliff. Households, their pandemic-era savings depleted and their purchasing power eroded by stubborn inflation, are now contending with cripplingly high interest rates. The cost of financing a home, a car, or even a credit card balance has soared, forcing a dramatic retrenchment in consumer spending. Businesses, facing the same high borrowing costs, are shelving expansion plans, cutting capital expenditures, and desperately trying to offload the mountains of inventory they accumulated just a year or two prior. This has created a world of profound excess. Warehouses are overflowing. Shipping rates have collapsed from their pandemic peaks. Companies that were once scrambling for microchips are now announcing production cuts due to a glut. This oversupply is deflationary in nature, putting immense downward pressure on corporate profit margins. Businesses are caught in a vise: their costs remain elevated due to sticky wage inflation and higher energy prices, while their ability to pass on these costs is vanishing as consumer demand evaporates. This is the breeding ground for the "cracks" that are now becoming visible. The first casualties are the so-called "zombie companies"—firms that were only able to survive in a zero-interest-rate environment by constantly refinancing their debt. With borrowing costs now prohibitively high, they are facing a wave of defaults. The commercial real estate sector, already hollowed out by the work-from-home trend, is buckling under the weight of maturing loans that cannot be refinanced on favorable terms. Regional banks, laden with low-yielding, long-duration bonds and exposed to failing commercial property loans, are showing signs of systemic stress. The cracks are not isolated; they are interconnected, threatening a chain reaction of deleveraging and asset fire sales. It is against this precarious backdrop of a weakening U.S. economy and a global supply glut that China’s sale of U.S. Treasuries must be interpreted. The move is not occurring in a vacuum. It is a calculated action within a deeply fragile geopolitical and economic context, and it carries multiple, overlapping meanings. On one level, it is a clear continuation of China’s long-term strategic objective of de-dollarization. For years, Beijing has been wary of its deep financial entanglement with its primary geopolitical rival. The freezing of Russia’s foreign currency reserves following the invasion of Ukraine served as a stark wake-up call, demonstrating how the dollar-centric financial system could be weaponized. By gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. debt, China seeks to insulate itself from potential U.S. sanctions and chip away at the dollar's status as the world's undisputed reserve currency. This $8.2 trillion sale is another deliberate step on that long march. However, there are more immediate and tactical motivations at play. China is grappling with its own severe economic crisis. The nation is battling deflation, a collapsing property sector, and record-high youth unemployment. In this environment, its primary objective is to stabilize its own currency, the Yuan, which has been under intense downward pressure. A key strategy for achieving this is to intervene in currency markets. Paradoxically, this intervention often requires selling U.S. Treasuries. The process involves the People's Bank of China selling its Treasury holdings to obtain U.S. dollars, and then selling those dollars in the open market to buy up Yuan, thereby supporting its value. So, while the headline reads as an attack on U.S. assets, it is also a sign of China's own domestic weakness—a desperate measure to defend its own financial stability by using its vast reserves. Regardless of the primary motivation—be it strategic de-dollarization or tactical currency management—the timing and impact of the sale are profoundly significant. It comes at a moment of peak vulnerability for the U.S. dollar and the Treasury market. The dollar has been extending massive losses not because of China’s actions alone, but because the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy are deteriorating. Markets are increasingly pricing in a pivot from the Federal Reserve, anticipating that the "cracks" in the economy will force it to end its tightening cycle and begin cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. This expectation of lower future yields makes the dollar less attractive to foreign investors, causing it to weaken against other major currencies. China’s sale acts as a powerful accelerant to this trend. The U.S. Treasury market is supposed to be the deepest, most liquid, and safest financial market in the world. It is the bedrock upon which the entire global financial system is built. When a major creditor like China becomes a conspicuous seller, it sends a powerful signal. It introduces a new source of supply into a market that is already struggling to absorb the massive amount of debt being issued by the U.S. government to fund its budget deficits. This creates a dangerous feedback loop. More supply of Treasuries puts downward pressure on their prices, which in turn pushes up their yields. Higher Treasury yields translate directly into higher borrowing costs for the entire U.S. economy, further squeezing households and businesses, deepening the economic slowdown, and increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut rates, which in turn further weakens the dollar. China’s action, therefore, pours fuel on the fire, eroding confidence in the very asset that is meant to be the ultimate safe haven. The contagion from this dynamic—a weakening U.S. economy, a falling dollar, and an unstable Treasury market—will not be contained within American borders. The cracks will spread globally, creating a volatile and unpredictable environment for all nations. For emerging markets, the situation is a double-edged sword. A weaker dollar is traditionally a tailwind for these economies, as it reduces the burden of their dollar-denominated debts. However, this benefit is likely to be completely overshadowed by the collapse in global demand. As the U.S. and other major economies slow down, their demand for raw materials, manufactured goods, and services from the developing world will plummet, devastating the export-driven models of many emerging nations. They will find themselves caught between lower debt servicing costs and a collapse in their primary source of income. For other developed economies like Europe and Japan, the consequences are more straightforwardly negative. A rapidly falling dollar means a rapidly rising Euro and Yen. This makes their exports more expensive and less competitive on the global market, acting as a significant drag on their own already fragile economies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will find themselves in an impossible position. If they cut interest rates to weaken their currencies and support their exporters, they risk re-igniting inflation. If they hold rates firm, they risk allowing their currencies to appreciate to levels that could push their economies into a deep recession. This currency turmoil, originating from the weakness in the U.S., effectively exports America’s economic problems to the rest of the world. Furthermore, the instability in the U.S. Treasury market has profound implications for every financial institution on the planet. Central banks, commercial banks, pension funds, and insurance companies all hold U.S. Treasuries as their primary reserve asset. The assumption has always been that this asset is risk-free and its value is stable. The recent volatility and the high-profile selling by a major state actor challenge this core assumption. This forces a global repricing of risk. If the "risk-free" asset is no longer truly risk-free, then the premium required to hold any other, riskier asset—from corporate bonds to equities—must increase. This leads to a tightening of financial conditions globally, starving the world economy of credit and investment at the precise moment it is most needed. In conclusion, the abrupt sale of $8.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries by China is far more than a fleeting headline. It is a critical data point that illuminates the precarious state of the global economy. It is a manifestation of the Great Unwinding, a painful transition away from an era of limitless, debt-fueled demand and toward a new reality defined by excess supply, faltering consumption, and escalating geopolitical friction. The underlying cause of this instability is the deep imbalance created by years of policy missteps, which have left the world with a glut of goods and a mountain of debt. The weakening U.S. economy and the resulting slide in the dollar are the natural consequences of this imbalance. China’s actions serve as both a symptom of this weakness and a catalyst for a deeper crisis of confidence in the U.S.-centric financial system. The cracks are no longer hypothetical; they are appearing in the banking sector, in corporate credit markets, and now in the bedrock of the system itself—the U.S. Treasury market. The tremors from this shift will be felt broadly, ushering in a period of heightened volatility, economic pain, and a fundamental reordering of the global financial landscape.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln