8/26/24 - $jd - From PDD to JD BABA VIPS8/26/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:JD
From PDD to JD BABA VIPS
- first, maybe i should stay in my lane and not keep petting the chinese dragon...
- ...PDD awful results. eating my rec. sucks. but idk if you can buy this with their telling us 'we're losing share'. it's the more expensive of the bunch and growth is slowing.
- meanwhile jd, baba (and vips which is more of a V meme) trade at 5-6x cash-adj. PE's and are growing. buying back stock.
- so will be VERY TELLING to see how the non-PDD stonks react in the next few days. i'd suspect the NYSE:WMT sale of NASDAQ:JD should defn be worthy of an eyebrow raise, but the sell off (knock on effect) on NASDAQ:JD is probably more of a flows ( AMEX:KWEB ) situation than more fundamental in nature.
- worth keeping an eye out. i opened a 50 bps position in NASDAQ:JD after blowing out of my too-large-of-a-loss NASDAQ:PDD (go read that if you need to know more). however, while i'm going smaller for now bc the flows equation could be a few days effect... i think there will be some dip snatching here.
what do you think?
V
013C trade ideas
JD.com Stock Plummets 10% on Walmart Sellout Key Points:
- Walmart to sell its 9.4% stake in JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ), raising up to $3.74 billion.
- The move aligns with Walmartโs strategy to focus on its core Chinese operations, including Walmart China and Samโs Club.
- JD.comโs shares plummet over 10% in Hong Kong following the announcement, highlighting the fragility of Chinese tech stocks.
Walmartโs Move
In a significant strategic shift, Walmart has confirmed its intention to sell its 9.4% stake in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com. ( NASDAQ:JD ) The decision, which could raise up to $3.74 billion, underscores Walmart's renewed focus on strengthening its core operations in China, specifically its Walmart China and Samโs Club brands. This move marks the end of an eight-year partnership between the two retail giants, a relationship that was once seen as a gateway for Walmart to tap into Chinaโs burgeoning e-commerce market.
Walmartโs decision to divest from JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) comes as part of a broader strategy to redeploy capital towards other priorities. A spokesperson for Walmart told CNBC, "This move allows us to focus on our strong China operations for Walmart China and Samโs Club, and deploy capital towards other priorities." Despite the sale, Walmart emphasized its commitment to maintaining a commercial relationship with JD.com, reflecting the value both companies have seen in their partnership over the years.
Impact on JD.com
The announcement had an immediate and severe impact on JD.comโs stock price. Shares of JD.com plummeted over 10% in Hong Kong and fell 9.5% in after-hours trading in the U.S., making it the largest loser on Hong Kongโs Hang Seng Index. The sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of Chinese tech stocks, which have been battered by market volatility and economic uncertainties.
The sale of Walmartโs stake in JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) is being priced between $24.85 and $25.85 per share, representing a discount of up to 11.8% compared to JD.comโs closing price in the U.S. on Tuesday. This pricing strategy signals the challenges JD.com faces in maintaining investor confidence amid a rapidly changing economic landscape in China.
The End of an Era
Walmart first acquired a 5% stake in JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) in 2016, entering into a strategic alliance that was expected to benefit both companies. For Walmart, the partnership was a way to tap into Chinaโs fast-growing e-commerce market, while JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) gained access to Walmartโs extensive retail expertise and global supply chain.
Over the years, Walmart increased its stake in JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ), reaching 9.4% by March 31, 2023, with over 289 million shares. However, the economic environment in China has shifted dramatically since the partnership began. The once-promising alliance has delivered diminishing returns as JD.com struggled to maintain its growth trajectory amid a challenging market environment for Chinese tech companies.
JD.comโs recent earnings results for the June quarter showed only a 1.2% growth in revenue, reflecting the difficulties the company faces in sustaining its momentum. The company's market value has halved since early 2022, a stark indication of the challenges it now faces.
Walmartโs Future in China
Walmartโs decision to sell its stake in JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) reflects a broader trend among multinational corporations to reassess their investments in China amid growing economic and regulatory challenges. By focusing on its core Chinese operations, Walmart aims to strengthen its position in the countryโs retail market, particularly through its Walmart China and Samโs Club brands, which continue to perform well.
The sale of JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) shares will provide Walmart with significant capital that can be redeployed to enhance its retail operations in China, invest in new technologies, and pursue other strategic priorities. While the sale marks the end of an era for Walmart and JD.com, it also signals a new phase for both companies as they navigate the complexities of Chinaโs evolving market.
Technical Outlook
At the time of this writing, shares of JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) are experiencing a notable decline, having dropped 7.9% during the premarket trading session on Wednesday. This decline has resulted in a relatively weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 48, which suggests some underlying weakness in the stock's momentum. When examining the daily price chart, there is a distinct gap down that has formed, signaling a robust bearish reversal pattern, which raises concerns for investors. Should the stock price continue to depreciate and fall below its one-month low, this movement could trigger a considerable amount of selling pressure from traders and investors alike, potentially resulting in further erosion of JD.comโs stock value.
Moreover, it is important to note that JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) is currently trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Moving Averages (MA), which further consolidates a bearish outlook for the stock. This positioning below these crucial moving averages is often interpreted by market participants as a sign of ongoing weakness, leading to a lack of investor confidence and potentially prompting more sellers to enter the market. The combination of these factors paints a challenging picture for JD.com as it navigates these troubling market conditions.
Conclusion
Walmartโs decision to sell its stake in JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) is a calculated move that reflects the companyโs strategic priorities and the shifting economic landscape in China. As JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) faces increasing challenges in maintaining its growth, Walmartโs focus on strengthening its core Chinese operations could position the retail giant for sustained success in one of the worldโs most dynamic markets. The implications of this sale will be closely watched by investors and market analysts as both companies chart their respective futures in a rapidly changing environment.
JD Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JD before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JD prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.99.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
JD.com Shares Surge 5.7% as Earnings Beat ExpectationsJD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ) shares experienced a significant uptick, climbing 5.7% on Friday after the Chinese e-commerce giant reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The companyโs impressive performance was driven by strategic price cuts that successfully attracted cost-conscious consumers, despite a challenging economic environment in China.
Earnings Boost Amidst a Competitive Landscape
For the quarter ending June 30, JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ) reported a 92% year-over-year increase in net income, reaching 12.64 billion yuan (approximately $1.77 billion). This surge in profitability comes despite a modest revenue growth of just 1.5% to 257 billion yuan. The results highlight JD.com's ability to maintain its profitability even as Chinaโs e-commerce sector faces intense competition and sluggish consumer spending.
JD.comโs Chief Financial Officer, Ian Su Shan, attributed the strong financial performance to the company's focus on enhancing price competitiveness through a disciplined supply chain approach, rather than relying heavily on subsidies. This strategy has not only helped JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ) maintain its market position but also led to a substantial increase in gross margin by 137 basis points, reaching a record 15.8% in the quarter.
The Surge in Share Price: A Closer Look
Fridayโs 5.7% surge in JD.comโs share price was a welcome relief for investors, especially considering the stock had been down 8% year-to-date and 28% over the past 12 months. The positive market reaction underscores investorsโ confidence in JD.comโs ability to navigate the challenges of a weakened Chinese consumer market.
However, this rapid price increase has pushed JD.comโs Relative Strength Index (RSI) to 66, suggesting the stock is approaching overbought territory. The Relative Strenght Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, indicates that a reading above 70 typically signals overbought conditions, potentially leading to a price correction. With the current RSI at 66, investors should be cautious as the stock flirts with this critical threshold.
Navigating a Weak Consumer Market
JD.comโs strong quarterly results come at a time when major Chinese e-commerce players, including Alibaba, are grappling with a slowdown in consumer spending. Alibabaโs latest earnings also reflected this trend, with revenue from its China platforms showing minimal growth. This has led to a highly competitive environment, with e-commerce platforms like JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ), Alibaba, and Pinduoduo fiercely battling for the attention of increasingly value-conscious consumers.
Despite these challenges, JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ) has managed to differentiate itself by focusing on next-day delivery and higher-priced products, leveraging its in-house logistics capabilities. This approach has resonated with a segment of Chinese consumers who value convenience and quality, helping JD.com maintain its market share amidst the broader economic slowdown.
Whatโs Next for JD.com?
As JD.comโs ability to sustain its recent momentum will be closely watched. The recent surge in share price, while encouraging, raises questions about the sustainability of this rally, especially given the approaching overbought conditions indicated by the RSI.
For now, JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ) remains a formidable player in Chinaโs e-commerce sector, with a proven ability to adapt to changing market conditions. However, investors should remain vigilant, keeping an eye on both the stockโs technical indicators and the broader economic environment in China.
In conclusion, while JD.comโs latest earnings report and subsequent stock price surge are positive signs, the current RSI level suggests caution may be warranted. The companyโs focus on price competitiveness and logistics efficiency has paid off, but with the stock nearing overbought territory, a period of consolidation or even a pullback could be on the horizon. Investors will need to weigh the potential for continued gains against the risks of a market correction as they consider their positions in JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ).
JD.com (JD) Is a Strategic Buy for Discerning InvestorsIn the dynamic and rapidly evolving landscape of global e-commerce, JD.com (NASDAQ: JD) has emerged as a dominant force, particularly in the Chinese market. For investors who align with the advanced methodologies of DiamondTradingOfficial, JD.com presents a compelling investment opportunity. This opportunity is grounded in the companyโs strong fundamentals, strategic market positioning, and technical indicators that suggest significant upside potential
Dominant Market Position and Strategic Growth
JD.com is one of the largest e-commerce platforms in China, second only to Alibaba. What sets JD apart from its competitors is its vertically integrated logistics network, which allows the company to control the entire supply chainโfrom warehousing to delivery. This infrastructure not only ensures rapid and reliable delivery but also creates a formidable barrier to entry for potential competitors. This level of control and efficiency is a key factor in JDโs strong market position, akin to possessing an "economic moat," a concept central to value investing.
Moreover, JD.comโs focus on technology-driven growth further enhances its competitive advantage. The company has heavily invested in AI, big data, and robotics to streamline operations and improve customer experience. These investments are beginning to pay off, with JDโs technology and services segment showing rapid growth. As Chinaโs economy continues to recover and consumer spending rebounds, JD.com is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the market.
Robust Financial Health and Valuation Metrics
JD.comโs financial performance underscores its long-term potential. Despite the macroeconomic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and regulatory pressures in China, JD.com has consistently delivered strong revenue growth. The companyโs ability to maintain healthy profit margins while expanding its market share highlights its operational efficiency and strategic foresight.
From a valuation perspective, JD.com is currently trading at a discount relative to its intrinsic value. The companyโs price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is notably lower than its historical average and the broader e-commerce industry, suggesting that the stock is undervalued. This discrepancy between market price and intrinsic value is precisely the type of opportunity that DiamondTradingOfficialโs proprietary algorithms are designed to identify. By employing a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, it becomes evident that JD.comโs future earnings potential, driven by its dominant market position and technological investments, is not fully reflected in its current stock price. This creates a substantial margin of safety for investorsโa principle that is fundamental to value investing.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
Advanced technical analysis further supports the case for JD.com as a strategic buy. The stock has recently shown signs of strong support at key levels, indicating that it is likely undervalued and poised for a rebound. Technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) suggest that JD.com is in a position to experience upward momentum, making it an attractive entry point for investors.
Furthermore, sentiment analysis reveals a growing consensus among institutional investors that JD.com is undervalued and ripe for a turnaround. As regulatory concerns in China begin to ease and the company continues to expand its technological capabilities, the market is likely to re-rate JD.comโs stock, leading to potential price appreciation.
Conclusion
JD.com represents a unique investment opportunity for strategic investors who prioritize value, growth, and advanced market analysis. The companyโs dominant position in the Chinese e-commerce market, coupled with its strong financial performance and significant market mispricing, makes it an ideal candidate for long-term investment. When viewed through the lens of DiamondTradingOfficialโs advanced trading principles, JD.com emerges as a stock with not only the potential for substantial appreciation but also the technical support for sustained upward momentum.
For investors who adhere to the principles of value investing and advanced technical analysis, JD.com is not just a good stock to buyโit is a strategic imperative in the global e-commerce landscape.
JD.com (JD): Key Levels to Watch for Potential ReversalJD.com has seen the expected drop towards the High Volume Node and Point of Control (POC) on the daily and three-day charts, between $27.50 and $26.80. Now, the price is falling further, and we think the lowest it could go is $24.65. This area is about $1 wide, and if it goes below that, it might drop to $20.
Current Situation:
The current situation shows the main support levels between $27.50 and $26.80. We believe the maximum downside is around $24.65. If it drops below this level, it could fall to $20. This support area is important because a lot of trading happened here, so itโs a key level to watch.
Possible Scenarios:
There are two possible scenarios: a continued decline or a bullish reversal. If the price keeps dropping, it's best to wait until we see some signs of strength. If it falls below $24.65, it could go down to $20. For the price to go up again, JD.com needs to get back above the resistance between $35 and $38. This would show a possible upward trend.
Strategy:
Our plan is to wait to see if the price shows some strength in the current support area. If it keeps falling, we should avoid entering the market. We need to keep an eye on the $24.65 level for any signs of a bigger drop. Also, watch if the price goes back above $35-$38 to signal a possible upward move.
We are closely watching the current support area and will wait for signs of strength before making any decisions. We won't be catching falling knives at the moment, and if the price drops below $24.65, we expect it to fall towards $20. On the other hand, if it goes above $35-$38, it might start a bullish trend.
Jd.com OBV analysis breakout JD.COM as per the published chart, shows a divergence, the price trendline which still reflects a downtrend and a non-breakout, is not on par with the volumes as shown by the obv indicator, and that the breakout of the downtrend has actually already occurred , as the price has reached the bottom.
Long China: For Now $JDThe Hang Seng Index (HSI) breached its 200 Day Moving Average (orange) last week but it still faces some resistance from a 3 year downtrend line (aqua).
I am anticipating a breakout for Chinese equities and my favorite chart so far is JD.com (JD) which has breached its 200 Day Moving Average with decent volume and a bullish engulfing weekly close.
First target would be the 3 year downtrend line (aqua) at $37. After hitting the first target we will implement a trailing stop loss strategy at $34. The goal is to keep all profits but also play the larger breakout above the downtrend line (aqua).
Second Target would be a gap fill around $51 see chart here
NASDAQ:JD
Stop Loss: $28
Profit Target 1: $37
Trailing Stop: $34
Profit Target 2: $51
Bullish*Break and Retest Macro Structure of 29-28.50
*Daily Golden Cross
*Golden Pocket Retracement
*3rd Touch of Recent Daily Uptrend
*Inverse H&S Reversal Pattern from Lows
Trade Idea: I would like to see JD base in this golden pocket and consolidate sideways into the 3rd touch of the recent Daily uptrend. If it holds above 28-28.50 the macro higher low on the is still in tact. Overall, there are too many bullish confluences on the Daily TF to ignore. I would like to see a daily close above the 20EMA for long entry validation. High risk entry is here in this demand before daily confirmation is shown. I am in leaps.
JD.com (JD): Key Levels to Watch Amid Potential BreakoutFor the Chinese stock JD.com listed on the Nasdaq, we observe a significant pattern. Initially, we had a prolonged sideways movement that concluded with an initial surge, establishing the current resistance zone. This zone held twice before the price fell through.
Starting from point X in our Elliott Wave count in November 2018, we saw a rapid increase of approximately 470% in a short period. However, this was followed by a steep sell-off, leading to the formation of Wave (2) within a trend channel.
The correction's time horizon places it in the perfect zone, typically between 2 and 2.618 on the higher time frame, which is a good indicator that this could indeed be Wave (2). To continue the upward movement, it is crucial for JD.com to flip this resistance zone.
The current question is whether the price will first return to the High-Volume Node Point of Control (POC) or break out upwards directly. Flipping the support-resistance zone will be key for any significant upward momentum.
We'll be closely monitoring these levels to determine the next move.
Zooming in on the 12-hour timeframe, we can observe the scenario at the end of the assumed Wave (2). This pattern is characteristic of what we like to see at the conclusion of Wave 2. Initially, we experienced an accumulation phase, which transitioned into a manipulation phase, followed by an expansion phase. This sequence is generally a positive sign.
Currently, we are witnessing a pullback after touching the resistance level. Despite this, we maintain our outlook that the price should continue to rise and not retest the $20 mark.
There's a breakout gap that partially filled but remains open near the bottom. This gap formed just before we entered the expansion phase, and it's a critical point to consider.
Given the ongoing volatility in the Chinese market and the uncertainty among investors, we remain cautious. We are closely watching how JD.com behaves within the $24.50 to $26.80 range. With a drop towards the gap close near $21, we will consider making significant buys.
If the price breaks out upwards, we will look for opportunities to enter positions.
JD Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JD before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JD prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 35usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.29.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
JD - 5 months HEAD & SHOULDERSโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot
trading opportunities based solely on the
development of
CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS
๐คLetโs learn and grow together ๐ค
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Hello Traders โ
After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that:
- it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment;
- since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant;
- the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts;
For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart.
Thank you all for your support
๐๐๐ ALWAYS REMEMBER
"A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist"
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โ DISCLAIMER โ
The content is The Art Of Charting's personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purpose and therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk.