63T trade ideas
Naked PUT for $TME crash with 87% Probability of ProfitMy tasty pick for yesterday: Tencenrt Muc Entertainment big crash.
(1) Prev. support holds
(2) Fibo resistance at fast fall holds
Max profit: $120
Probability of Profit: 87%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 31%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$150
Req. Buy Power: $380 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 104 (ultra high)
Expiry: 56 days
Sell 2 TME May21' 15 Put
Short put option for 0.6 cr each.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~7% (!!!)
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.24db. Probability of profit this way: ~85%.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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Very bullish on this oneLooking good on TME in my opinion making all time highs. Very very impressive technicals and especially fundamentals with continuing uptrend of revenue and EPS and would probably fit a CANSLIM stock selection. In terms of pricing, compared to other china stocks like BILI, BIDU, etc. with impressive fundamentals. TME should reach $100 per share as well near their pricings. Probably after this bear market were experiencing right now and low volume, TME would have a high possibikilty it wont go back to this $20 per share right now. Addition to that, you can see a huge volume the other day which represents intstitutional entry plus RSI indicates were almost on the oversold side which is a good entry point.
TME likely to go up on the daily chart (PVSRA)Reasons
Strong rejection from the 200/233EMA using PVSRA
Fundamentals
- Tencent Music Entertainment Unveils $1 Billion Share Buyback Program
Massive Block Trades Hammered These StocksTencent Music NYSE:TME which is basically like Spotify NYSE:SPOT in China, plunged 33% on Friday. In addition, shares of Viacom NASDAQ:VIAC plunged 50% over the last week! What exactly is going on? Other big Chinese tech names like online tutoring and constant target of short sellers, GSX TechEd NYSE:GSX as well as Discovery NASDAQ:DISCA and Baidu NASDAQ:BIDU and video streaming giant NASDAQ:IQ also saw big declines. This price action is truly unprecedented, because all of these stocks, especially viacom, have large market caps and they didn't release any news during this time.
So the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have been reporting that major banks like Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS and Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS have been forcibly liquidating the holdings of big family office, called Archegos. Archegos is the family office of a famous investor, Bill Hwang. Apparently Deutsche Bank NYSE:DB and UBS were also serving as prime brokers to Archegos and were lending it cash and stocks. Before this crisis, it was estimated that Archegos was managing around 10 billion dollars.
The details are still murky and not a lot of information has come out, but apparently the forced selling in the aforementioned shares totaled 30 BILLION DOLLARS! media reports indicate (although we can't verify this) that Archegos was using complex swap arrangements to build up stakes of 10% or even more of some of these companies. One of the reasons the fund used swaps was probably so that it didn't have to file additional regulatory disclosures. Most importantly though is that it seems there was an immense amount of leverage in the strategy that Archegos was pursuing.
Only the bankers involved in this story really know what happened, but it's likely that some of the bets Archegos made (whether long or short we don't know) went sideways and the banks forcibly dumped his shares before they would be on the hook for the losses.
The sizes of some of these block trades were just astounding. The Wall Street Journal just reported that on Friday Morning Goldman Sachs sold 100 million shares of Tencent Music for 1.8 billion dollars and Morgan Stanley followed in the afternoon with 36 million more shares that sold for around 600 million dollars. That's some weight on the tape. There was also fierce selling of Viacom and the other aforementioned names last week.
It's likely that the banks were able to sell some part of these massive holdings to their other hedge fund clients, but a substantial amount were probably just dumped on the market at whatever price people were willing to take.
It's probable that these stocks will recover somewhat over the coming days, especially because the declines are attributable to forced selling.
Media reports indicate that the forced selling is mostly over, but anyone thinking about rushing into these discount stocks should consider that maybe this story isn't quite over yet.
Tencent Looking bearish Looking bearish on the Hourly.
RSI is already overbought while the BlueWave doesn't have an upper wave yet. (bad sign)
I would wait a little bit till we have a confirmed green dot (buy signal) combined with an oversold RSI to go in.
TME (NYSE) - Be CarefullGreetings
Humbled, we would like to thanks for your support who has already liked, commented and followed us. Your support, strengthens us, to help in analyzing the market. If you have any questions, feel free to send us message (inbox).
Pra Trading :
- Please care for Money Management
- Have a good psychology
- Do not be hurry to open position and do not do nothing if u see opportunity
- Evaluate and upgrade your trading plan
Execution Strategy :
- Know what you want to buy, see the Fundamental
- Decide that you are on investing or speculating
- Consider what your strategy based on Investing/Speculating
- Make Road Map Of Your Trading Plan
- Decide
a. Entry strategy
b. Cut loss
c. Target of Profit
Post Trading :
a. Do not be sad if you loss or do not be very happy if you win
b. Just become a normal without emotion, Do not put emotion into your trading
c. Evaluate your trading
d. Keep on Learning
e. Be Humble
Idea :
TME (NYSE) - Be Carefull
Chinatown Beatdown on $TMEPanic sell last couple days. Finally found a channel, poke out a bit, did it again at close today. Only a 15min timeframe harmonic on this so looking for small pullback, then back to movin' on up. That bottom support it ran into was back from November.
TME a good buy point for long term investorSuch a profitable company getting cut almost in half. A good buy opportunity for the long time when hitting this support line.
TME: Bullish Pennant, confirmed, WEEKLY (56%)Bullish Pennant, confirmed, WEEKLY (56%)
Pros:
Volume during post formation
Descending volume during triangle formation
Volume at break out
PPS above 50MA
RS above 0 and ascending
R/R ratio above 6
ATR ascending
Cons:
No 200MA
No 250RSI
Target:
PT = 40.95$
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Always do your own due dilligence. This is not financial advice
Stay Humble, have fun, make money!
Education:
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Short opportunity Buy Put 26 for April 16???
Always manage risk never put more than 5% of your trading capital in a single option idea..!
TME, at all time high, lets chase this, entry at 24.78If we get it at 24.78 that would be perfect
Queue to sell tonight
ACTC at market
IPOE at market
NNDM at market
NIO at market
Remaining stock in portfolio
YINN
WNW
QS
LIZI
TME my first position at $18 and just place my second at $20#simple #fun #patient #enough #luck
Do I like the product? Yes!!!
Do you like Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga?
They're all connected with TME.
Please share your thoughts here...
TME Snapback DojiTME had a complete selloff today after running up into overextended territory. This created a large shooting star bearish doji on high sell volum. I suspcet this will come back to original gap support level.
$TME Pichfork to be explioted @puppy_trades$TME is one name I am exploiting for a while now with still a lot of potential. Thanks for your education @puppy_trades
TME Breakout 6th testTME is looking to breakout above resistance at the 16.5 mark. It has tested this area 5 times now. Typically on the 6th test of resistance there is now supply being taken out at that level, causing higher demand and a breakout. Looking for this to breakout to the 17.5 range.
