Is American Finally Cleared for Takeoff?American Airlines has struggled for years. Could it now regain lost altitude?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trend line along the highs of May, August and September. The carrier pushed through that resistance last week and has now bounced at it. Has the line become support?
Next is the recent low around $12. This closely matches the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally between March 2020 and May 2021. (For the sake of visual simplicity, the other retracement lines are not shown.)
Including the low in June, AAL has also formed a double bottom around the same price level. That’s another potential sign of sellers losing control.
Third, the Relative Strength Index has shown positive divergence over the same time period.
Finally seasonality and fundamentals could be in play as travel rebounds into the holidays. TSA data shows daily flights consistently back above 2 million per day. AAL also reported strong quarterly numbers last week (echoing the results of peers like Delta Airlines and United Airlines ).
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A1G trade ideas
AAL - Short term flag play! Quick Post tonight!
Covering the Technicals of AAL ~ American Airlines!
Sadly this company does Report Earnings tomorrow, so that could screw with out Technical Analysis on this Chart, so I am keeping this short as Fundamentals will take presence!
We are seeing a clear flag being printed on the Daily Chart here, and A clear bounce off the support band. Looking here for a simple continuation upwards toward the upper trendline from the flag. The Candle made today is neutral, so we are looking for a jump in the coming days for a short term move up.
Momentum is in Bulls Favor (Daily, and Weekly)
It looks like a possible easy move up to resistance that could pay well.
Also, a break thru could be explosive.
Pros :
Predictable Chart here
Everything almost in favor
Con :
Daily Candle
Earnings tomorrow 9/20
2X $AAL 1D Tech. Analysis!AMERICAN AIRLINES is a patient play for 2 reasons! If it breaks out this channel, we are looking for a retest and confirmation for the drop to continue with volume. Then if it bounces off the bottom and price heads to the top of the channel then we get a even better entry on this setup! Be patient and execute!
AAL short - UPDATEUpdating my AAL earnings idea:
As you can see, we got a confirmation of the described scenario.
It was acceptable to sell intraday using the VWAP pullback point.
Also on the second day we got something similar to a flag, which has worked out.
But of course, being in a position already on the first day, I would not add on the second day.
These Two Airlines Should Be In Your PortfolioUp first is American (NASDAQ: AAL), part of that group of majors who’ll be hit hardest by the headlines from London. Their Q2 earnings are due out next week and investors will have a clearer picture of the internal numbers then, but for now at least the trends around its long-term stability are positive. Just yesterday, the company told investors they expect their quarterly revenue to be up 12% versus the same quarter in 2019, which was a welcome update. Airlines, among other front line industries affected the most by COVID, have been skipping 2020 when doing like for like quarterly comparisons, and this will have been a solid stat for them to share.
The other carrier that should definitely be on your watchlist, if not in your portfolio, is Southwest (NYSE: LUV). This column has written about the US flier’s consistent strength versus its more internationally focused peers several times in recent years, and it’s a tone we’ll be continuing here.
Whereas American shares are still down more than 50% from their pre-pandemic levels, Southwest shares are ‘only’ down 30%. This suggests Wall Street sees much more inherent strength in them that could justify their inclusion in the right kind of portfolio.
Indeed, it was only yesterday that the team over at Susquehanna upgraded Southwest shares from a Neutral rating to a Positive. This change was one of several they made during a sweep of the airline sector, a sweep that for context saw their price target on American shares dropped from $19 to $15. Analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos said with the changes that “while we’ve yet to find any cracks in airline booking data, we believe that at some point consumers will have to contend with the economic reality of higher air fares, outsized general inflation, and potential layoffs in select industries (e.g., finance, tech, and media) into 2023."
They see this affecting the non-budget flier like American more than budget friendly fliers such as Southwest, whose various revenue initiatives and its break into corporate travel should bring fresh support to its share price. Southwest is also seen having ample liquidity to ride out a downturn, something that previous bullish comments on the stock have highlighted as well. Their shares are up about 14% from their low of last month and also on track to test the downtrend that’s been in place since their recovery peaked in April of last year.
It’s fair to say that both stocks are worth keeping on your watchlist, and depending on your tolerance for risk and investment timeline, there’s an argument for both being part of your portfolio.
AAL: Travel is Back!American Airlines
Short Term - We look to Buy at 13.78 (stop at 12.30)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The trend of higher highs is located at 13.40. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 13.40 level.
Our profit targets will be 17.89 and 19.00
Resistance: 18.00 / 21.00 / 25.00
Support: 13.40 / 11.00 / 9.00
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ANALYSIS ON W1 Airline stocks have see a massive hit since the current economic downturn but could it be the climax basing for the next cycle
The 13-year cycle from 2008 completed a 661 week trend and market is forming a base for a 5-year bull market.
Repeating market patterns give us a clue of what we can project after completion of the cycle
1896 - 1903 7-year cycle
10/2004 - 05/2005 7- months cycle
06/1994 - 12/1994 6-months cycle
In the 3 occurrences there was a bull market that followed averaging 5 years
Giving that the next cycle node is in 2028 we can expect the bottom anywhere between now and March 2023
AAL - 3 Long scenarios - Fly little bird, fly 3 Long scenarios
Fundamentals
-
General
One scenario developing doenst invalidate the other. Would trade one after another if it should happen - or all at the same time.
Scenario 1 (Green arrow)
Target
Next resistance level (level 1).
Confluence with the 50% level of a monthly range.
Requirements
- Price closes above buy zone 1
Invalidation / SL
- No break under buy zone 1 AND creating lower swings
Time duration
Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Scenario 2 (Orange arrow)
Target
Next resistance level (level 1).
Confluence with the 50% level of a monthly range.
Requirements
- Price dto buy zone 2
Invalidation / SL
- None, this is a possible longterm hold
Time duration
Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Scenario 3 (Blue arrow)
Target
Next big resistance level
Requirements
- Break above level 1
Invalidation / SL
- None, this is a possible longterm hold
Time duration
Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Good luck