AAPL on the Edge! Key Levels for Trading This Week Dec.16Daily Timeframe Analysis (Longer View)
1. Trend:
* AAPL is in a strong uptrend, respecting the rising wedge pattern and trading near resistance.
* Price is consolidating at $248–$250, a critical level for direction.
2. Key Levels:
* Resistance: $250.80 (recent high). Breaking above could trigger continuation toward $255.
* Support: $240 (previous consolidation zone) and $235 as a lower support.
3. Indicators:
* EMA 9/21: Price is above both EMAs, signaling continued bullish momentum.
* MACD: Flattening, showing weakening momentum, which could lead to a pullback.
* Volume: Relatively steady but not showing strong buying pressure.
Daily Outlook:
* If AAPL holds above $248, it can test $250.80–$255.
* Failure to hold could lead to a retest of $240 as support.
1-Hour Timeframe Analysis (Shorter View)
1. Trend:
* Price is consolidating in a descending triangle, with lower highs and stable support near $246.
* The short-term trend is neutral to slightly bearish, awaiting a breakout or breakdown.
2. Key Levels:
* Resistance: $250.80 (upper trendline).
* Support: $245.68 (lower trendline).
* If $245 breaks, the next level is $241.25 (recent low).
3. Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover forming, suggesting a short-term upside move.
* Volume: Increased red volume shows bears are still active, but buyers are stepping in.
1-Hour Outlook:
* Watch for a breakout above $250 for bullish continuation.
* A breakdown below $245.68 could trigger further downside toward $242.
Direction and Strategy For Tomorrow (Scalping):
* Look for a breakout above $248–$250 to scalp toward $252–$255.
* Short if AAPL rejects resistance at $250 and breaks $246, targeting $243–$245.
For Next Week (Swing Trading):
* Bullish Setup: If AAPL breaks $250.80 with volume, it could rally to $255+.
* Bearish Setup: If it fails to hold $245, look for downside toward $240–$235.
Summary
* Short-term Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish; watch for a breakout or breakdown.
* Key Zones: $250 resistance and $245 support.
* Swing Direction: Needs confirmation above $250 for bullish continuation; failure risks pullback to $240.
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GEX Analysis For Option Trading
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Key Observations from GEX Levels:
1. CALL Walls (Resistance):
* 247.6: The highest positive GEX level, acting as key resistance. This is where upward momentum could slow down or reverse.
* 252.5–255: Additional strong resistance zones, aligning with the 2nd and 3rd CALL Walls.
2. PUT Walls (Support):
* 237.5: The strongest PUT wall and likely the first support level where price could stabilize.
* 225: The 2nd PUT wall—this acts as a deep downside support level.
3. Gamma Sentiment:
* Neutral to Bearish Bias: Gamma exposure shows a balance, with a slight tilt towards the downside due to the PUT wall activity.
* Elevated resistance at 247.6 suggests CALL buyers may cap price movement.
4. IVR and Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 11% indicates low implied volatility, making options relatively cheap for directional plays.
* CALL Positioning: At 17.1%, call positioning is weak, signaling limited bullish momentum.
Technical Analysis for Options Trading (Using GEX):
1. Bearish Option Trade Setup:
* Entry: Look for rejection at 247.6 (CALL wall resistance) or a failed breakout above 252.5.
* Target: First target near the 237.5 PUT support, with an extended target at 225.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy PUT options (near-the-money strikes) with 30–45 days to expiration to allow time for the trade to play out.
* Alternatively, use a Bear Put Spread (e.g., buy 245 PUT, sell 235 PUT) to reduce cost.
2. Bullish Option Trade Setup (Short-Term):
* Entry: If price consolidates above 247.6 with volume confirmation, look for a push toward 252.5.
* Target: CALL wall at 252.5, with stop-loss below 247.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy CALL options with short expiration (0DTE or 1-week out) to capitalize on quick moves.
* Use a Bull Call Spread (e.g., buy 247 CALL, sell 252 CALL) for a cost-effective approach.
Conclusion & Directional Bias:
* Bearish Outlook: Price is struggling near the 247.6 CALL wall, and low IVR suggests options are cheap for PUT strategies.
* Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance: 247.6 and 252.5
* Support: 237.5 and 225
For options trading, focus on PUT options if rejection occurs at resistance or CALL spreads if bullish confirmation is seen above key levels. 🚀
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
