APC trade ideas
Apple and Microsoft: Which Stock Offers Greater Tech Potential?Apple and Microsoft: Which Stock Offers Greater Technical Potential?
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Tech giants Apple (ticker: AAPL) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) both outperformed last year, adding 48.0% and 57.0%, respectively. Both are also part of the widely talked-about Magnificent Seven Stocks (includes Amazon , Nvidia , Meta Platforms , Tesla and Alphabet ), which collectively rose nearly 80.0% in 2023, according to the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index. However, while Microsoft has continued to climb higher in 2024 (+13.0% year to date), Apple has struggled to find acceptance at higher levels (-12.0% year to date).
According to an analysis of the weekly timeframes, the technical picture for Apple and Microsoft is interesting for the months ahead.
Trend?
Microsoft's shares are in a solid position in terms of trend. A basic analysis of the stock’s trend illustrates that the company’s share price is in a clear uptrend, forming an all-time high at $430.82 in recent trading. This is positive for buyers and could encourage investors to buy into this market.
On the other hand, Apple’s shares show that while the stock formed an all-time high at $199.62 in late 2023, the technical environment suggests trouble could be ahead for the stock price. The weekly chart is in the process of forming a double-top pattern off all-time highs and is closing in on the pattern’s neckline at $165.67. A break here would be considered technical confirmation for bears to target lower levels, with a price target generally based on the difference between the highest peak and the neckline, which is then extended from the breakout point to form a profit target.
Both stocks also remain above their 200-week simple moving averages. However, Apple is poised to converge and retest the upper edge of this dynamic value if the double-top pattern’s neckline is engulfed, with Microsoft diverging from the moving average.
Momentum?
The price of Apple shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests average losses are exceeding average gains after crossing below the 50.00 centreline. This tells us that the stock is in a phase of negative momentum and does not bode well for buyers, particularly as there is still room for the indicator to continue moving lower until the oversold area (0.00-30.00).
Regarding Microsoft's stock, early negative divergence from the RSI is displayed around the overbought area (100.00-70.00). This indicates that while price action may have shaped higher highs in line with its current trend, momentum is slowing for now. Does this mean we will see a reversal here like Apple? No, not necessarily. While negative divergence should not be overlooked, this may be a false reversal signal or just a signal that the market is pausing for breath before pushing on to fresh all-time highs. Investors will want to see the RSI explore lower levels below the overbought area and maybe probe beneath the 50.00 centreline to confirm upside momentum is weakening for this stock.
Given the above, there is some uncertainty with both stocks at the moment.
Volume?
Volume studies for Apple’s stock remained consistent since early 2023, fluctuating around the 20-period average. For investors who focus on volume, there is not much to go on right now. What could excite investors, nevertheless, is a breakout above the average volume at a point when support enters the market or price breaks above resistance. One thing to bear in mind is that average periods of volume tend to be followed up with phases of increased volume and possible price breakouts.
It is clear for Microsoft that although price continues to make higher highs, volume is unsupportive. It is trading below average volume (20 periods). Investors who analyse volume are unlikely to be willing buyers at this point. An uptrend that lacks volume suggests that investors lack enthusiasm for the stock and that this is perhaps a weak rally we’re seeing.
Price Action?
Sticking to basics, we can see that both Apple and Microsoft benefit from nearby potential trendline support. Apple, at its current price, has support in the $155.00 area. This consists of trendline support drawn from the low of $53.15 and another potential trendline resistance turned potential support drawn from the high of $182.94.
However, for Microsoft's price, there is trendline support seen closer, taken from the low of $219.35.
Out of the two markets, Apple’s trendline support combination is the more attractive in terms of technical confluence.
Apple or Microsoft?
While opinions will differ on which stock has the greater potential, both appear worthy of attention.
According to Apple's technical position, it has room to continue moving lower to the double-top pattern’s neckline at $165.67. This, coupled with Apple’s trend being meaningfully weakened and the RSI trading below the 50.00 centreline (negative momentum), may cause technical analysts to deem this a bearish market for the time being. What is likely to attract bullish eyes, nonetheless, is the trendline support combination around $155.00 and the nearby 200-week simple moving average. However, bear in mind that at this point, technical selling will also be present on the back of the double-top neckline breach.
Although Microsoft is showing early negative divergence from the RSI, it is unlikely to be sufficient to draw in sellers right now and could remain overbought for prolonged periods. Should Microsoft form a correction and volume continue to slow, investors could buy the dip from trendline support. Both stocks have declining volume, yet both have the potential to see above-average volume, particularly if buyers step in at trendline supports.
So goes Apple so goes the market? The old wall street adage! so goes apple....
Were at a pretty interesting level.
Are market makers going to make this breakdown in apple easy?
A head & shoulders breakdown is now on watch for a confirmed break.
This does imply a decent down move and will undoubtedly weigh on markets if it happens.
Keep an eye on the second largest company in the world.
aapl short NASDAQ:AAPL looks quite bearish, been a long time and even apple court cases are making them loose money, lets hope for something good otherwise aapl can be back to 140$ zone
✅STOCK REVIEW: $AAPL General explanation:
- I have shorted the NASDAQ:AAPL yesterday
- Textbook perfect short, stage 3 topping
- It is forming a ledge and rolling over
Beware:
- AAPL can easily come back and be supported by institutions (e.g. move to the 200D SMA and still be shortable)
Some nuances:
- On the week of the 18MAR it couldnt even come to the 10WK MA and rolled over.
My style:
- Swing Style with holding periods of 4d to 1month. This is important in order to understand what I see.
AAPL: Time for PutsFirstly I'm a huge NASDAQ:AAPL fan when it comes to their products, however, I believe the time has come to buy some Put Options.
Trend Analysis
Utilizing the 1D chart, I found a double-top "M" pattern and at the time of this idea we are currently sitting a little under the second peak. The descent can be steep according to a macro-Fibonacci tool where the $125 share price rests around a 50% retracement level. Support at this level has been strong since May 2021.
I used two micro-Fibonacci tools to identify areas of minor support during the descent. I believe the use of both is necessary as some traders will be using the uptrend retracement (green) and others will use the downtrend retracement (red). I believe that there is a good possibility for reversal at the 61.8% downtrend Fib retracement as this level has been a key area of support and resistance since August 2021; see image below. It goes without saying that by the time the share price reaches this level, the double top pattern will already be considered valid so it's my opinion that a catalyst in the form of bad news will be required to see further declines.
Fundamental Analysis
According to the Q3 Earnings Call (Annual Report), Apple has only utilized 17.67% of its $90 billion dollar share repurchase program authorized in May '23. According to a later footnote, Apple repurchased $76.6 billion of its shares during 2023 which leads me to believe there is either a mistake in the report or that most of the $76.6 billion satisfies an earlier repurchase program. On the 10K form, see bottom of page 18 - note 1 and bottom of page 20.
Cash on-hand has increased by 27% since September 2022.
Current ratio (current assets/current liabilities) is 0.99 which is concerning from a financial standpoint. However, this is an improvement from September 2022 when its current ratio was 0.88.
Retained earnings, while still in a deficit, has improved by 93% since September 2022. These deficits were self-inflicted as Apple spent most of its net income on stock repurchases the last three years.
Sentiments
I didn't find anything that changed my opinion on the current market trend for Apple. While the company does appear to be improving it is still in a rough spot. The aggressive repurchasing of its own stock and placing itself into a deficit doesn't make sense to me as a long-term plan. I understand that companies will do this to raise their EPS and benefit their shareholders but it also says that the company doesn't plan on expanding in the foreseeable future.
APPLE Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
APPLE is going down
But the stock will soon
Hit a horizontal support of 166.24$
From where I will be expecting
A local bullish rebound
Buy!
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Let's start with the top-bottom approach. First, you choose an economy, such as Indian, US, or UK. Next, select a sector within that economy, like Financial Services, IT, or Pharma. From there, narrow down to an industry within the sector, such as AI, Clean-technology, or Hardware. Finally, choose a company within the industry. Don't worry if it seems complex – I'll provide examples and guidance throughout. 💡🔍
Conversely, the bottom-top approach flips this order. We start by selecting a company, then move up to its industry, sector, and finally, the economy. 💼🔄
Let's put theory into practice with the top-bottom approach: (a random example)
1. Choose India as the economy.
2.Select the IT sector for its promising future.
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4. Select Infosys as a company.
Now, it's your turn! Share examples of top-bottom or bottom-top approaches in the comments for practice. 💬💡
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AAPL charted for 1Apr24I want to see an open above this floor
as well as above this trend line & will
hold calls up to 173
$AAPL - Double top!NASDAQ:AAPL A double top pattern seems to be playing out, and it's getting close to breaking down. I'm still expecting the price to reach the $157 to $145 area.👀
AAPL Wait For Selling The Chart make Double Top Chart Pattern . the Chart need Pull back Before it continue To go Down .
(AAPL) Daily Bull Gartley patternPrice is apparently locked in a Harmonic Range; the most profitable environment for harmonic traders.
From the July '23 top, price printed a 0.618AB=CD(orange) and immediately had a natural harmonic reaction(NHR); which is the high probability minimal reaction one should expect from a Type1 harmonic pattern entry. After turning and creating a false support level, price fell sharply towards the orange pattern's HOP(harmonic optimal price) to potentially setup a Type1.5 pattern entry. This process caused the printing of another 0.618AB=CD(blue); it's HOP also tested @167.54. Price rallied sharply constituting the end of both Type1 long trades. From this peak @182.34 price declines sharply and pushes towards the 1.13 fib extension; creating a pivot(this is a textbook picture of the 'failed wave' phenomena associated with the 1.13 extension). This retesting, turning process presented a Type2 long entry for both orange & blue patterns and resulted in an extreme impulse that touched all Type2 targets.
Price printed a Bear Shark pattern(red) when it touched the 0.886 retracement @194.52 and, after divergent topping action, carved out a major pivot. The move down to 180.17 in Jan. '24 completed the Type1 Bear Shark entry and printed a Bull 5-0 harmonic pattern(not plotted, but the PRZ box is there in red). After an initial reaction and retest of the PRZ price surged towards the pattern's Target1, but peaked just short of it. This notwithstanding, price reaching the core measurement of the past Bear Shark(red) triggered a Type2 short entry. The target for this entry was @169.54. After spending a month creating a false support level the bottom fell out and price went to target.
This process has created a Bull Gartley pattern(purple). This large pattern has a Bull Deep Crab pattern embedded within it(aqua). A Type1 long entry was triggered, but, after a NHR, price has reasserted itself to the downside; setting up the potential for a Type1.5 long entry. Note the gap down towards 170.40 and the retest. To my eyes, this action is a confirmation that we are likely in a Harmonic Range. Ideally, price would show a false support level here and create a trap-door bottom near 167.17. Instead, it might continue to consolidate here for a spell only to breakout to the upside. In both of those scenarios, a strong earnings report will propel price higher. There are a few other scenarios based on the upcoming earnings dynamics, but those must be assessed at that time. If I'm wrong and this sucker wants to go much lower, expect price to show a false support level here and breakout sharply to the downside; exacerbated by a poor earnings report.
A bona fide Harmonic Range has two phenomena at work within it that makes it so attractive to harmonic traders. Within the range, patterns will emerge subsequently; offering many trade opportunities. And, due to the nature of a range, the patterns will not only enjoy an incredibly high win rate, but will also yield outsized gains relative to the harmonic trading model in a vacuum.
I have plotted the least steeply inclined potential down trendline and remain on the sidelines awaiting a signal to go long. If a trade is triggered, my sights will be set towards the top of the range @194.52.
Apple Inc.Apple - price is on a massive area of support , but still is strong downtrend , momentum is strong too and its bearish , if price break below that area , than price will probably continue to go down even further. Valuation of the company is undervalued at this point.
AAPL on a wide view continues SHORTAAPL on the weekly continues to fall from a double top put in at 195 in July 23 and this past
January. China issues are looming with competition domestically within China, factory issues
and the recession. The hart shows an established trend down seeking support at the Fibonacci
level in blue. The predictive algo looking back an the regression line pattern forecasts a
continued fall through the fib zone into the 125 area. Indicators are all consistent with the
same. I have a deep respect for advanced mathematics and will comply with the forecast.
AAPL is a short and the little retrace up is an opportunity to add to my positions.
APPLE Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
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1-16-2024
GREEN TrapZone with RED UMVD. Price sliding as US MSI also points to weakening in the market. Hold On to You Hats I Say :)
