$JSE First Rand H & S playing out as discussed last week First Rand H & S playing out as discussed last week
FSR trade ideas
FIRST RAND (FSR) POTENTIAL LONG (FNB)The price of this big bank stock is nearing two important areas, an upward trendline and a 200-day exponential moving average. If prices find support at any of these supports, we could see a rally towards the ceiling of the overall channel.
Buy: If price finds support on the ascending trendline, or if price finds support on the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
The trade will be invalidated if prices break well below either the 200 EMA or the trendline. It is important to note that the market is somehow bearish on the short term and bullish on the long term, therefore, long positions should be entered only after the prices shows bullish momentum. A safer trade would be to wait for an upward break of the correction flag/pattern before entering long
BUY FSR... let's see how brave you areThis stock (along with all banks) has wallowed in over-sold territory since the beginning of July. It's been a one way slide with no let up but I think it's over done and just maybe the Rand can throw it a life-saver.
After breaking horizontal support, the price has almost mimicked that previous "long tail" move. The stock went on to rally significantly after that and while I don't expect a MONSTER rally, I am more than happy to try and profit from a less significant "relief" rally. I expect our Rand to make a bit of charge back towards R15.00/$ and with it, prop up our financial stocks. That should see FSR attempt to test the previous support level (which is now resistance).
I know being long any financial stock in the current climate is risky, but hey...things don't move down in a straight line either....(except Sasol of course). Definitely a breaveheart trade
$JSEFSR Firstrand looking tired?Firstrand is starting to look tired here having reversed off the first big resistance level (R69-R70) as well as trend line connecting the stocks all-time high from MAR 18.
My biggest concern is that the rally from the lows in August has taken place on declining volume which doesn't give me a great deal of confidence in this rally. Secondly we are starting to see divergence develop on the RSI (price making new highs but indicator making new lows) which could be indicating a further correction in price.
We have reversed off the first massive horizontal resistance now at R69-R70, but also keep an eye on the secondary resistance level between R71-R72. Should the stock continue to roll over, important support levels on the downside to keep an eye on are R64.75 (200dma), R62, R60 and R55.
Bearish Engulfing on FirstrandA bearish engulfing chart pattern formed on JSE:FSR which is often a top reversal signal. The stochastic has also turned downwards which further confirms the signal.
I will however wait until it breaks through the fractal level from the 21st of October before entering short, as it isn't the most convincing of engulfing candles as the top of the two candle bodies is exactly the same level.
14 Oct 2019 - JSE:FSR - Long - Ascending Triangle - NEAR TRADE JSE:FSR is nearly ready to buy (go long) due to an ascending triangle that's been forming since 8 July 2019. You might be wondering why I'm not calling it a Cup and Handle pattern instead. One reason - The right rounding bottom is more than 50% the cups height. Hence the stop loss will be wider, and the take profit will be extended higher than normal. I'll update this analysis, once we have seen a confirmed breakout, close above and a new candle opening above the resistance.
FSR in 'southern' territory, heading further South!!The red candles on Tuesday and today show rejection from the 6344 to 6400 area which if you revert to the weekly chart is the SSB and Kumo cloud area. This means the area of least resistance is south. So i anticipate the bears to take price down to the 1st take profit of 6133 then the 2nd take profit 6035. Longer term target will be 5579 then we appraise the price action at this level.
Entry: Sell on todays close @ 6278
SL : Use about 1 ATR @ 6447
TP: 1st TP - 6133
2nd TP - 6035
3rd TP - 5579
Risk Management: half of what you are comfortable with:))
FSR - Dark Days AheadWe may derive the following from the Weekly FSR chart:
1. Price has broken a +- 3 year uptrend. Signalling further downside.
2. It is probable that a bearish trend may be unfolding.
3. Monitor price action and watch for further shorting potential.
4. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
Update idea
First long now SHORT FirstrandAfter banking my long trade on this stock (out of fear) I asked myself "If you are too scared to be long, why then, are you not short?". Hence my decision to swing short.
FSR has hit a bit of a resistance now and the last two days have given us a couple long tail failing highs. Therefor I think resistance is going to hold here and we should see a small pull-back here. Also...take note of how all those moving averages are getting dragged lower...certainly not a sign of strength. robp@unum.co.za
