$BIIB with a Bearish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bearish outlook for $BIIB after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 100%.
IDP trade ideas
BIIB | GuidanceJournal Entry
Bias: Positive.
Sentiment: Optimistic.
Emoji (emotion): Speculative 🧙♂️.
Null Hypothesis: Buy.
Alternative Hypothesis: Sell, Buy then Sell.
Signals: ...
Position: Day/Swing trade.
Notes: I'm anticipating the market to buy the earnings surprise 07/20/22 BMO: www.estimize.com
Barron's Company Overview: www.barrons.com .
Other: ...
Tutorial: (Q/A) What exactly is the box labeled tolerance? The box labeled tolerance is a defined range of value & time that qualifies the right to exit the trade after a profit is made; as long as the security is inside the box and above the trade's entry one could say the profit is within tolerance, likewise if the security is outside the box either because of value or time one could say the profit is not within tolerance. It's a way to add parameters to the future outcome of the journal entry (as a means to grade the journal entry) while simultaneously providing leniency in the ability to achieve success with said journal entry.
About the Security: "Biogen, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in discovering, developing, and delivering therapies for neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. It offers TECFIDERA, VUMERITY, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, and FAMPYRA for the treatment of multiple sclerosis, SPINRAZA for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy, and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis. The company was founded by Charles Weissmann, Heinz Schaller, Kenneth Murray, Walter Gilbert, and Phillip Allen Sharp in 1978 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA."
About the Author: I'm happy to hear from my readers/audience and I encourage constructive feedback, although I'm busy I will give my best effort to reply; please don't get discouraged if I don't reply because your comment is still open for discussion with the rest of the Tradingview community. Some of my goals include building an esteemed reputation, attracting a prolific following, ranking as a Top Author, and earning the Tradingview Wizard badge. Apart from Tradingview I consider myself a financial scientist and the work I offer to the community as contributions apart of my open journal/goodwill to mankind.
Disclaimer: My journal entry is not a complete prospectus, please consider it accordingly.
BIIB follow upIf you took my analysis, you might have closed the trade early, for those who havnt, now is the best time to close your trade. The buy entry was given on 8th April at 265.35 with stop loss at 249.68 (ard 1600pips risk), the price went up to 431.71, as much as 16000 pips profit, 10 times the risk. I dont trade fundamentally, most of the financial figure only start to drive the second wave. But many already enter before the release of important event, probably volume and price action are the best early indicator.
BIIB - Trend Line (Bull) ViewMy recent post was a bearish view for BIIB, it included some Fibonacci Circles and I am questioning my ability to plot these.
So I have posted a much simpler chart that shows a dominant trend line in green that should be maintained
Once the descending channel reaches this level price should move upwards.
Here is the bear view
BIIB: falling wedge pattern developing?Remains a very risky trade.
A falling wedge pattern might be developing. The break usually occurs to the upside.
Above 190.00 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the positive stance.
Further bullish support for a price action above 197.50.
Consolidation is between 193.75 and 201.25. Crossing above 201.25 might target 212.75.
Crossing below 193.75 will be the fist sign of weakness in the stock.
Biogen (BIIB) reaches low of rangeThe basics:
Biogen Inc. is an American multinational biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in the discovery, development, and delivery of therapies for the treatment of neurological diseases to patients worldwide. I expect this industry to continue to grow as new advancements are made.
Trade Idea:
Since September of 2013 Biogen has been trading in a range between 205 and 440. If we remain in this trading range, the upside potential could be close to 100%. While breaking below this range is possible, Biogen has been in a steady upwards trend sing the beginning of 1995. The last long term trading range was an ascending triangle which began around the beginning of 2001 and broke up to new all time highs around the beginning of 2011. If the range we are currently in plays out in a similar way as the last one did, I would expect this range to break out to the upside within the next couple years, which would lead to a much larger return than 100%.
Risks:
The general market has been pulling back into the beginning of this year. If the market is setting a yearly low around the beginning of the year, I would expect this trade to play out nicely. However, if the market has already set a high for the year and further downside is ahead of us, I would expect Biogen to break below this range.
$BIIB: Update, get long!I think it warrants making a new publication here, $BIIB has flashed a buy signal with tremendously good reward to risk, as it can resume the long term trend that can take it over $1600-2600 over time. Phase 3 clinical trials have gone really well for their Alzheimer's treatment 'Aduhelm', putting it in line with results obtained by $LLY's drug 'Donanemab'. I was long $LLY and have been trading in and out of $BIIB trying to time the end of the long slide since the FDA approval news came out. I think the time is now, to get in and sit tight. I've banked my $LLY exposure, but both companies will likely do well with their Alzheimer's treatments going forward and have solid trends, but the reward to risk favors $BIIB, so I'm only long Biogen currently.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan.
BIIB: Biogen, low risk long term buyReward to risk long term in $BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like $LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of $LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible.
Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit.
Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia.
There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
