LL6 trade ideas
$JSEMTN Bull flag break retest ? Cutting it close. MTN dropped by quite a large percentage at one point during the day but recovered to some extend to close "only" 4.4% down. A negative day tomorrow would mean this share has broken back into the flag which would negate the bullish flag breakout. Still long and carefully optimistic, but would trigger stop at a heartbeat if this selloff continue.
MTN - Head Shoulders target still not met- MTN may look "cheap" but technically the head and shoulders target has still not been met
- We could possibly see R23.50 in the coming months
- There will likely be some good rallys in between
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Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
JSE:MTN
MTN Call…time to buy or sell?MTN just released a trading update for financial ended 31 December 2020.
- HEPS expected to increase by 30% - 50%
- EPS expected to increase by 0% - 10%
Even at the top of the range (534cps), results will still below Thomson Reuters consensus expectations of 583cps. MTN however adapted new accounting standard (IFRS 16), which on a like-for-like basis with the old accounting standard (IAS 17), EPS would be between 558cps – 606cps. This mean they are very much in-line with market expectations.
Think the market is going to like this tomorrow
Technically MTN found itself in decreasing parallel channel since its highs in August last year (2019). We however see the 8-day Moving Average (EMA) getting mighty close to break above the 21-day EMA. This will be a very positive short-term signal, bringing next resistance at the 50-day EMA (R84.83). Should we break and close above the 50-day EMA, could see MTN test the very important top of the parallel channel at R87.50.
Short-term target is R92.80, with Thompson Reuters Consensus target price still seeing the price as high as R108.78.
Equities: Local | MTN GroupEquities: Local | MTN Group | The share has been in a consolidation phase over the past 11 sessions, trading between 8450c and 8190c. What I would like to see is bids holding above the 8357c level in order to raise the probability that the the consolidation phase can be breached. Adding some confidence that there is a potential reversal at hand is the price starting to find support on the 8-day exponential moving average. On Friday we traded close the resistance zone, pulling back intraday.
MTN at an important inflection point.The MTN share price is at a very interesting inflection point. The Level of R85 is where we find both the trendline support which formed from the September 18’ lows as well as the declining channel which has formed since June. The moving averages are configured with a slight bearish bias so I would not look for extended targets here, but given that the 200 day moving average is still pointing higher gives me some comfort that the bearish trend is not too extreme and the probability of a bounce is likely. Look to buy between R85 to R87, using a stop loss as a close below R84.00. On the upside I would look for a target of R92 which is the same level the stock recently found support (should now turn into resistance). For extended targets it is possible that the stock might retest the upper end of the declining channel which is at R96 and declining daily. I am also seeing some divergence on the RSI which matched its previous low, even though price made a new low. This could potentially be warning of a rally to come.
Enter - R85 to R87
Stop loss close below : R84
Target : R92 and R96