Swing Long for LMTAgain, like I said with Ruger, now that Republicans hold the power in the American government, it makes sense to invest in arms/defense manufacturers.
LOM trade ideas
16 Weeks of Decline: How Lockheed Martin Lost Its Growth Driver16 Weeks of Decline: How Lockheed Martin Lost Its Growth Driver
It’s no secret that during wartime, the biggest profits are made by companies engaged in arms manufacturing. Those that work directly with the government, secure defense contracts, and leverage strong lobbying power to push their interests are especially successful. Today, we’ll discuss Lockheed Martin and its 16-week stock decline following a prolonged period of growth.
A Look Back: Why Did Lockheed Martin's Stock Surge?
Since early 2022, Lockheed Martin's stock demonstrated impressive profitability. The start of the war in Ukraine served as a major catalyst, nearly doubling the company’s market capitalization in two years.
This growth was entirely driven by increased demand for its products. Lockheed Martin didn’t massively increase production but raised prices due to the rising demand for weapons. Yes, production had to be scaled up, but the fundamental market principle states: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise.
This allowed the company to generate enormous profits and aggressively expand. However, like any market story, growth can't last forever. The situation began to change with the arrival of Donald Trump, whose key political stance is ending military conflicts. This became a death sentence for defense companies that had lobbied to extend the wars in Ukraine and Israel.
Financial Manipulations: How Lockheed Martin Used Buybacks
Any publicly traded company profits not only from its business operations but also from stock price manipulations. One such mechanism is buybacks, where a company repurchases its own stock to control its price and maximize profits.
How Does It Work?
Let’s assume Lockheed Martin’s stock is currently priced at $300. The company knows that upcoming catalysts could push the stock price to $500 or higher.
Lockheed Martin uses its free cash flow to buy back its own stock at $300.
The company executes contracts and projects that drive stock price appreciation.
When the stock reaches $500, Lockheed Martin sells the shares, securing a massive profit.
A single trade may not seem significant, but when executed on millions of shares, profits can reach hundreds of millions of dollars.
Stock buybacks are a common practice among corporate giants like Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, Google, and Facebook. However, Lockheed Martin and other defense companies have used this tool aggressively during wartime.
Military conflicts not only boosted their direct sales and allowed them to raise prices but also enabled massive profits from stock market speculation. Companies like Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin extracted billions of dollars from the market using buyback strategies.
Why Did Lockheed Martin's Stock Start Falling?
For the past 16 weeks, Lockheed Martin’s stock has been on a steady decline. This directly correlates with changes in U.S. foreign policy:
Trump is focused on de-escalation and reducing military involvement.
The U.S. is shifting from direct conflicts to diplomacy.
Investors are taking profits, leading to mass sell-offs of defense stocks.
With Lockheed Martin's shares now in correction mode, the key question is: Where will the decline stop?
Where Will Lockheed Martin's Stock Find Support?
From a technical standpoint, there are two key support levels:
$400 – the most likely reversal zone.
$321 – an extreme scenario if macroeconomic conditions worsen.
Will Lockheed Martin’s stock drop to $321? Probably not. The company remains an industry giant with long-term government contracts, ensuring a steady revenue stream.
Once the current conflicts wind down, a phase of rearmament will follow. Military technology won’t disappear, and European leaders are already discussing creating a unified EU army—which will require new weapons and massive defense contracts.
Conclusion: Is Lockheed Martin's Decline Just a Temporary Adjustment?
Once Lockheed Martin's stock reaches $400, we could expect a reversal and renewed growth. In the long term, the stock may return to $500 or higher if:
New military contracts are signed.
European nations initiate defense expansion programs.
Public attention shifts away from war profits, allowing institutional investors to re-enter the defense sector.
What Should Investors Do?
Monitor geopolitical developments – War de-escalation may trigger short-term volatility, but long-term demand for defense products will remain.
Analyze buyback strategies – Lockheed Martin may continue repurchasing its own shares, potentially supporting a price rebound.
Avoid panic – The defense sector remains critical to U.S. economic and military policy, making these stocks long-term players.
Lockheed Martin’s stock decline is not the end of the story—it’s simply a new opportunity for investors willing to capitalize on the next growth cycle.
$LMT UndervaluedBuying LMT at $429 here, price hits the 200 weekly SMA and brace for a bounce off support. Not financial advice. Holding for long term hence time horizon may vary, but if there is a short term aggressive bounce of 40-50% I may be tempted to TP.
Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT
Lockheed Martin has had multiple large consolidations it has bounced back from. This consolidation seems to be getting a bit overplayed here as they continue to keep getting more contracts. The uncertain news with the defense spending is not all that bad and actually if the company continues to increase its net margin each quarter/year, the future looks good for Lockheed Martin. Making advanced technology while improving net income and net margin can prove to make Lockheed Martin a consistent winner of defense contracts. If budget cuts to defense spending do happen, it is not wise to assume Lockheed Martin is going to be negatively impacted as with talented engineers there is always room for innovation to make new high net income and net margins.
As for the Chart, It has had a fantastic run in 2024 and dollar cost averaging when a stock has the 50 day moving average significantly below its 100 day moving average and 200 day moving average is usually a good thing to do.
Consolidation period. There is a Fib level below it could bounce off of. Good thing to look for is when the stock goes above its 50 day moving average. The 100 day may cross below 200 day moving average, so that is something to watch for as well. Not a bad idea adding here and dollar cost averaging. Good company and I like the future of this stock on a longer timeframe.
LMT Outlook long termMy strategy is to gradually add to my position using the following entry points:
• 446
• 411
• 399
• 360
Once the price begins to move higher, I’m planning to take profits in stages. My first profit target is 467, followed by 478, and if the momentum continues, I’m aiming for 500+.
This trading plan is based on my personal analysis and trading strategy, and it should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions, as trading involves significant risks and past performance does not guarantee future results.
LMT set to rise soonI would buy in the orange square. The lower the price to the bottom in this orange square, the more I would buy. The thicker blue line is long term support dating back to 2011. Check the support line on the RSI showing bullish convergence Be aware of breakdowns and fakeouts.
Wars are growing, government defense spending is ever increasing.
Lockheed Martin... Time to move?With tensions rising in the Middle East and the gaining of military activity here in the United States, it could be assumed that the government spending to grow the defense will mostly be seen by large defense firms. Specifically, we will be looking at NYSE:LMT but that doesn't rule out any other defense contractors from this trade ( NYSE:NOC , NASDAQ:HON , NYSE:RTX , NYSE:BA , NYSE:GD ). Firstly, let's examine the charts before reviewing anything fundamental from the company.
This is the 4h chart looking back into late-mid January
Simply put, this is just two of many possible paths that the NYSE:LMT price action could take. However, these two should be the most expected especially considering its violent downtrend that appears to be "cooling" and not "consolidating". It also appears that NYSE:LMT price action likes to reclaim any Fair Value Gap that it creates quite quickly as of recent trading terms. The good news is that two large FVG's have been created by a rather lackluster earnings report.
Now, as for a fundamental analysis POV, we can firstly examine the defense industry's cyclical movement throughout the years. This means that the industry is facing booms and busts. So lets see what the 1 week chart has to say about that...
With the chart shown above, you're probably thinking that a quick rebound seems unlikely as the other "BUST" sequences seem to last longer than the "BOOM" sequences. To this I would agree, however being first (or being early) is something I can settle for as there is no possible way to buy the exact bottom penny. When prompted with this dilemma of timing, think back to the Margin Call famous quote...
"There are only three ways to make a living in this business: be first ; be smarter; or cheat... it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first."
Can Satellites Redefine Military Power?The strategic chessboard of military technology is undergoing a profound transformation, where Lockheed Martin plays a pivotal role with its advancements in satellite communication systems. The company has recently marked a significant milestone with the successful Early Design Review (EDR) of the MUOS Service Life Extension program, aimed at enhancing secure military communications. This leap forward is not just about maintaining current capabilities but about reimagining how military power can be projected and managed through space.
Lockheed Martin's collaboration with SEAKR Engineering introduces a groundbreaking feature: a reprogrammable payload processor for satellites, which could revolutionize operational flexibility in space. This technology allows for in-orbit adjustments, ensuring satellites can evolve with changing mission requirements without the need for costly replacements. This innovation challenges us to consider the future of warfare, where adaptability and real-time changes could dictate the outcome of conflicts, far beyond the traditional battlefield.
The implications of such technological advancements extend beyond military strategy; they invite a broader conversation about the role of private-sector innovation in national defense. With commercial giants like Starlink reshaping satellite communication, the military must now decide whether to continue investing in proprietary technologies or integrate commercial solutions. This dilemma poses a fascinating question: In an era where technology evolves at breakneck speed, how will traditional military assets adapt to maintain relevance and superiority?
LMT - Lockheed Martin - Aerospace & DefenseI think Lockheed Martin is ready for a reversal here. Analyst have 1 year targets of 418, 543 and 670. Avg Vol 1.30M Current Vol 1.35M. Is the move about to start with the volume just now breaching its avg? I am using my personal DABLOK METHOD to target my entry on this chart.
What do you think? Will it turn here or drop more to the 418 low first. GL!
Will LMT try 800$ ?People sometimes ask why I call myself The Wizard—then I show them a setup like this.
With Trump back in the picture, I see Lockheed Martin (LMT) either consolidating here or launching into a hard rally to the upside. Either way, I’m not waiting around—I’m accumulating big. My first target? The resistance line up top. Until the market presents undeniable evidence that invalidates this idea, that’s the bet I’m placing.
When the market speaks, I listen.
Watch, wait, win.
Lockheed Martin Corporation - Aerospace & DefenseKey arguments in support of the idea.
• Concerns about the F-35 program are exaggerated.
• Trump has proposed deploying a U.S. version of Israel’s "Iron Dome".
• Selloff tends to the end.
Investment Thesis
Concerns about the F-35 program are exaggerated. Both Donald Trump and Elon Musk
have criticized the program in the context of modernizing the U.S. Air Force fleet. Musk
has described the fighter jet as expensive and potentially obsolete. However, the F-35
remains the most technologically advanced fighter jet in production today. NGAD (Next-
Generation Air Dominance) development is delayed, with no clear timeline or certainty
about the production of sixth-generation aircraft. This raises questions about substitute
programs. To our opinion options are limited. The F-22 Raptor, one of the stealthiest
jets, was initially slated for retirement by 2030. However, some officials now expect a
delayed retirement, with modernization efforts by Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX
continuing. Production of the F-22 is supposed not to resume. Meanwhile, F-15C/D
Eagle jets are being phased out, requiring replacements. With China advancing its fifthgeneration
J-20 fighters, the U.S. must maintain leadership in air dominance—a role that
other fighter jets cannot currently fulfill. This makes significant changes to the F-35
procurement schedule and volume unlikely. During Trump’s first presidency, similar
criticism of the F-35 did not reduce procurement, and deliveries increased instead. Even
if U.S. Department of Defense orders decrease, the F-35 has strong demand abroad,
especially as the U.S. pressures NATO member countries to allocate up to 5% of GDP to
defense. Should NGAD eventually enter mass production, Lockheed Martin is the most
likely lead, given that Boeing is focused on commercial sector challenges, and Northrop
Grumman has shifted its focus to its B-21 Raider bomber program.
Trump has proposed deploying a U.S. version of Israel’s "Iron Dome“ , a unified missile
defense system. Lockheed Martin has extensive experience in this field with its THAAD
(Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system. THAAD is a highly effective, combatproven
system capable of intercepting short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic
missiles both inside and outside the atmosphere. In March 2022, THAAD demonstrated
successful integration with the PAC-3 MSE missile system. According to the 2025
defense budget, funding for missile defense programs is increasing. Additionally,
Lockheed Martin is advancing its IFPC-HEL (Indirect Fire Protection Capability-High
Energy Laser) program, featuring a 300 kW laser, which could enhance missile defense
capabilities significantly.
Lockheed identifies the Missiles and Fire Control segment as the most promising for
growth through 2027.
Market Perspective
The recent selloff in LMT stock was driven by renewed F-35 criticism from the current
administration. LMT has declined for three consecutive months. However, based on the
points above, LMT appears ready to resume a local bullish trend.
Compared to competitor RTX, which could compete for U.S. missile defense contracts,
LMT is attractively valued:
• Forward P/E (NTM): 17.5x vs. RTX at 19.7x.
• The broader S&P 1500 Aerospace & Defense index has a P/E of 25.9x, making LMT
undervalued.
LMT’s share price is near a wide support range of $460-$490, suggesting limited
downside. A bullish divergence in RSI supports this thesis.
We anticipate LMT’s stock could rise by approximately 13% in the coming months,
reaching $555. A stop-loss can be set at $448.
Lockheed Martin Lockheed Martin made some pretty impressive planes over the decades...
But what got my attention is the failing momentum, as price refuses to outpace its moving average as it once did.
That is a setup for eventual failure!
Lockheed Martin: A Compelling Addition to Your PortfolioHello,
today we look at a potential company that might benefit in the Trump administration. Lockheed Martin Corp. is a global security and aerospace company, which engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services. It operates through the following business segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS), and Space.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown below
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- as shown
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- 0 crossover on the MACD
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target point $660
Global defense spending has surged as nations strengthen their military capabilities, driving demand for advanced weaponry such as fighter jets, which are critical for air combat. These is largely because we are currently facing a resurgence of wars in the globe. In January 2025, over 10 countries hosted extreme levels of conflict, including: Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Myanmar, Syria, Palestine, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, Taiwan, Colombia, Haiti, Yemen, and Sudan. This trend significantly benefits Lockheed Martin, a leading combat aircraft manufacturer, through steady orders from the Pentagon and U.S. allies.
Long-term, the Pentagon has prioritized modernizing military capabilities to counter aggression from major powers like China and Russia, while managing threats from terrorism and hot spots like Iran and North Korea. Lockheed Martin is well-positioned to capitalize on these priorities with its exposure to key programs such as the F-35 fighter jet, hypersonic missiles, and the militarization of space. In December 2024 Lockheed Martin secured a nearly $12-billion contract to produce 145 additional F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets for the US military and its international allies.
The F-35 program, the largest weapons program in history, provides Lockheed Martin with stable revenue streams through procurement and maintenance contracts. As of September 30, 2024, Lockheed had delivered 1,040 F-35 aircraft since the program's inception. Its advanced sensors, mission readiness, and ability to connect air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains have driven strong demand globally. We expect Lockheed to remain a reliable partner in supporting the United States Government’s defense goals.
While the shift towards unmanned systems is being explored, experts like AeroDynamic Advisory Managing Director Richard highlight the continued relevance of manned fighter jets. Richard notes that drones cannot yet match the versatility of jets in intercepting enemy bombers, supporting naval operations, or achieving other strategic objectives. This bodes well for Lockheed Martin's continued success in the sector.
While all these looks quite positive for the industry, the primary risk for defense spending is budgetary pressure. Under cost-cutting measures, Musk through the new cost cutting department DOGE has pointed to defense procurement, which represents less than 4% of the $6.8 trillion 2024 federal budget. Musk’s co-lead, Vivek Ramaswamy, has also advocated for shifting funds toward unmanned platforms instead of traditional fighter jets. While the defense budget might face stress, we anticipate reductions to come from non-military items used by the Department of Defense rather than core defense capabilities. We do not see a significant cut in the arms procurement or a shift to unmanned platforms. Another risk Lockheed Martin faces is associated with its reliance on U.S. military funding, which is inherently political and uncertain. Moreover, competition from SpaceX could challenge Lockheed’s dominance in space-related contracts. In 2023, Lockheed Martin’s space division generated $12.61 billion in revenue, a substantial contribution to its total $67.57 billion revenue for the year. To strengthen its position, Lockheed Martin completed its acquisition of Terran Orbital and its subsidiary Tyvak International, leading manufacturers of modular spacecraft. Lockheed has collaborated with Terran Orbital on several projects, including Space Development Agency programs and technology demonstrations. Should this risk materialize, then we would see a significant income wiped out.
The 2024 Republican Party platform emphasize the development of a U.S.-made "Iron Dome" and the modernization of the military. An Iron Dome, as defined by Wikipedia, is a mobile all-weather air defense system that intercepts and destroys short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from 4 to 70 kilometers away. For this task we expect collaboration between Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Lockheed Martin on designing and manufacturing the Iron Dome for U.S. use. These two companies have worked together successfully in the past. Notably, in December 2022, Lockheed Martin and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems signed a teaming agreement to jointly develop, test, and manufacture High Energy Laser Weapon Systems (HELWS) in both the U.S. and Israel.
The below are the customers of Lockheed Martin as per their website
Australia, Brunei, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Morocco, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Unites states, Israel & others
Financial Summary
Lockheed Martin reported strong financial performance for the quarter ended September 29, 2024:
Net sales: $17,104 million, up from $16,878 million in the same quarter of 2023.
Gross profit: $2,117 million, compared to $2,048 million in Q3 2023.
Operating profit: $2,140 million, an increase from $2,042 million in the same period last year.
Net earnings: $1,623 million, slightly down from $1,684 million in Q3 2023.
Diluted earnings per common share: $6.80, compared to $6.73 in the same quarter of 2023.
For the nine months ended September 29, 2024, the company reported:
Net sales: $52,421 million, up from $48,697 million in the same period of 2023.
Gross profit: $6,240 million, compared to $6,184 million in the same period last year.
Operating profit: $6,317 million, an increase from $6,214 million in the same period of 2023.
Net earnings: $4,809 million, down from $5,054 million in the same period last year.
Diluted earnings per common share: $20.05, compared to $19.97 in the same period of 2023.
Lockheed Martin's business performance for the quarter ended September 29, 2024, was marked by strong contributions from its four business segments:
Aeronautics: Generated $6,487 million in revenue, with the F-35 Lightning II program representing approximately 22% of total consolidated net sales.
Missiles and Fire Control (MFC): Reported an increase in net sales to $3,175 million, up from $2,939 million in Q3 2023.
Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS): Achieved net sales of $4,367 million, compared to $4,121 million in the same period last year.
Space: Recorded net sales of $3,075 million, slightly down from $3,101 million in Q3 2023.
Lockheed Martin Corporation Forecasts Fiscal Year 2024 EPS of Approximately $26.65. Lockheed has no major debt maturities over the next three years and has more than sufficient debt capacity to finance incremental acquisitions and/or weather a potential funding trough.
Challenges and Risks
U.S. Budget Environment: With approximately three-quarters of sales from the U.S. Government, changes in defense spending and funding levels can significantly affect the company's financial performance.
Geopolitical and Economic Environment: Global security concerns, supply chain challenges, inflation, and macroeconomic conditions present risks to the company's operations and profitability.
Operational Risks: The company faces challenges in ramping up production, managing supplier costs, and maintaining operational efficiency.
Foreign Currency Exchange Rates: The company is exposed to risks associated with changing foreign currency exchange rates, although its market risk exposures have not changed materially since December 31, 2023.
Our recommendation
Lockheed Martin continues to experience increased demand for advanced weaponry like the F-35 fighter jet due to increased global conflict. The company’s strong order book positions it well for long-term growth. While risks exist, including budgetary pressures and competition from SpaceX on space militarization, Lockheed Martin’s strategic collaborations and revenue diversification strategies strengthen its outlook.
From a technical standpoint, Lockheed Martin's stock appears to offer an attractive entry point. Since October 2024, the stock has corrected by over 25%, presenting a potential upside opportunity. The MACD indicator suggests a bullish crossover, supported by strong fundamentals.
The company recently secured an $11.76 billion contract with the United States government to produce and deliver 145 F-35 jets across all three variants of the program. This contract, set for completion by June 2027, provides stability against short-term market volatility. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical climate suggests that more nations are likely to increase their defense budgets, bolstering future sales.
Should Lockheed Martin collaborate with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, there is significant potential to develop a superior version of the Iron Dome, further enhancing sales prospects. Profitability is projected to expand by 10–20 basis points annually, with the segment EBIT margin expected to reach 11% by the end of the decade. we recommend a Buy with a target price of $ 660.
Sources: Lockheed Martin website
Tradingview (News flow) www.tradingview.com
Tradingview (Financials) www.tradingview.com
Lockheed Martin | LMT | Long at $472.00Lockheed Martin $NYSE:LMT. The war machine keeps turning... while there may some temporary "peace" with the new Trump administration, it is just never (unfortunately) permanent.
The price has entered my historical simple moving average area. If there is a bounce, I expect it to be between the current price of $466.00 and $450.00. I've started a small position at $472.00 and will grab more shares if it hits $450. Now, if the aerospace and defensive industry goes through a downtrend with the new presidential administration, I expect the price to fill the daily price gap near the low $400s - which is only an even better bargain, in my opinion.
Target #1 = $500.00
Target #2 = $535.00
Target #3 = $610.00
LMT Long on Regression Break (Military Stock)The Military stock are now net-long on there regression break.
LMT has fallen 25% - It is worth having a look at the military stocks.
LMT PitchFanNYSE:LMT
Lockheed Martin looks ready for a good bounce after this consolidation.
Comment what you think about this chart.
Comment any tips or suggestions.
NYSE:LMT
Lockheed Martin - Extremely oversold - Very high potential aheadHi guys we are looking into one of the Defence Giants in the U.S.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stands out as a leader in the aerospace and defense industry, offering a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking stability and long-term growth. The company benefits from a robust pipeline of government contracts, providing consistent revenue and resilience against market volatility. Its focus on cutting-edge technologies, including hypersonic systems, missile defense, and space exploration, ensures a competitive edge and positions it well for future growth.
Lockheed Martin's commitment to innovation and operational efficiency has driven strong financial performance, with reliable cash flow supporting shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks. As global defense budgets remain strong, LMT is poised to capitalize on increased demand for advanced defense and aerospace solutions, making it an attractive choice for investors.
Currently as we can see the price has been extremely oversold and is currently sitting very low in the RSI level - 1H,4H and 1D time frames.
I believe there is a lot of potential to be collected here, and a great Q4 earnings can help boost that possiblity!
Entry: 467
Target 1: 495
Target 2: 530
Target 3: 577
Target 4: 630
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
LMT Long PlayLMT has been trading in this ascending channel since 2019. Trade is based mostly on this pattern. Decent dividend and election season should add volatility into this stock.
LMT - Weekly Bullish L1 Exhaustion SignalNYSE:LMT has triggered a weekly bullish level 1 exhaustion signal. This signal has triggered 18 times over the past 40 years with a win rate of 77.8% and average move of +3.8%.
LMT eyes on $515-520: Major Support zone that could form Bottom Followup to my last idea that called the top (click).
LMT has been dropping hard after last Earnings Resport.
It has dropped into a major Support cluster of four fibs.
This should give us at least a dead-cat bounce or better.
$ 515.39 - 520.91 is the exact area of interest right now.
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Previous Analysis:
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LMT CallsAfter a long period of reds, the price has somewhat established itself around the demand area.
Im expecting the trend to reverse from this area and test first supply zone at $577. If price succeeds in breaking out, the trend will continue to the next zone at $618.
LMT Support bounceLMT showing some reaction at support and showing so far a failed breakdown.
I like this for a possible quick trade towards $560
