SMCI Hitting a Long Term Support ChannelFell back all the way down to a long term support channel - could be a great buying opportunity if it holds
MS51 trade ideas
Price Prediction for $SMCI: Potential Rebound Amid Market TrendsOverview: Super Micro Computer, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ), a leading player in the high-performance computing sector, has faced some volatility in recent months. However, a combination of key factors—ranging from the rise of AI, an ongoing cryptocurrency boom, and broader market trends—suggest that NASDAQ:SMCI is well-positioned to rebound and potentially reach new highs.
1. AI Growth and Its Impact on High-Performance Computing:
The AI revolution, particularly the rise of generative AI and machine learning, is significantly driving demand for powerful computing infrastructure. NASDAQ:SMCI specializes in high-performance servers, data centers, and enterprise solutions that cater to the increasing needs of AI-heavy workloads. The growth in AI adoption by both tech giants and startups is pushing the demand for advanced computing systems that NASDAQ:SMCI provides. As AI-related applications scale, the need for more efficient and powerful hardware solutions will likely translate into increased revenue for $SMCI.
2. Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Trends:
Cryptocurrency has surged to all-time highs, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets seeing significant increases in value. This trend often leads to higher demand for mining equipment, which NASDAQ:SMCI manufactures. Even though crypto mining isn't as profitable as it once was due to energy costs and regulatory concerns, the overall demand for blockchain infrastructure and server solutions remains robust. As the broader blockchain ecosystem matures and institutions invest further into decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web3 technologies, NASDAQ:SMCI stands to benefit from the need for more scalable, secure, and energy-efficient server solutions.
3. Market Trends and Valuation:
Despite some short-term volatility, the broader tech market is showing signs of resilience. Companies in the semiconductor and data center sectors, especially those tied to next-gen computing like NASDAQ:SMCI , have benefitted from robust earnings reports and demand for cloud services, AI applications, and high-performance computing. The current market correction may present a buying opportunity, as NASDAQ:SMCI ’s core business fundamentals remain strong.
4. Supply Chain Improvements and Operational Efficiency:
NASDAQ:SMCI has made strides in improving its supply chain and operational efficiency. With the global chip shortage easing and its diversification into various high-margin markets, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on growing demand in AI and blockchain sectors. This, combined with a more favorable operating environment, could lead to improved profitability and a stronger share price.
Conclusion:
Given the alignment of NASDAQ:SMCI ’s product offerings with key growth areas in AI and cryptocurrency, the stock has strong upside potential. The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for high-performance computing, both in the AI and blockchain sectors, which should drive earnings growth. As the broader tech market stabilizes and investor sentiment improves, NASDAQ:SMCI could see a substantial rebound in share price.
Price Target: $75.00 + over the next 12 months, contingent on continued market growth in AI and cryptocurrency, as well as stable operational performance.
SMCI is -85% a buy opportunity while accounting issues continue?Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) still haven't found a new Auditing Firm, after it was announced last week that Ernst & Young left them raising governance and management communication issues. Yesterday's Low represents almost a -85% drop from the March $122.50 All Time High (ATH). So is this level a bargain and a buy opportunity for long-term investors?
Well while the company hasn't filed the necessary paperwork to meet the regulatory requirements to remain listed on the stock market and no auditor is hired to confirm and signs their reports, investor confidence will remain low (to say the least). It appears that SMCI has turned into the new short favorite for Hedge Funds and that's never ideal.
Technically though, the stock hit yesterday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 4 years (since October 26 2020)! With that contact, the price initiated a strong multi-week rally that made a new High. This is a textbook buy for long-term investors. Of course it is all about risk and money management and since regulatory risks remain, the capital invested best to be less than usual.
Another technical factor supporting a buy on these levels is the 1W RSI, which got oversold (<30.00) for the first time since the weeks of March 16 2020 (almost 31.50) and October 01 2018 (U.S. - China trade wars). Both these times, SMCI kick-started enormous rallies.
The October 01 2018 bottom in particular is the starting date of the Fibonacci Channel Up on this chart, which encompasses SMCI's logarithmic growth these past years. As a result the company has only experienced 3 major long-term buy opportunities with the most recent 4 years ago.
At the same time, yesterday's Low didn't only make contact with Fibonacci 1.0 of the Channel Up (i.e. the initial top until the price turned parabolic and broke-out) but also almost touched the 0.382 horizontal Fib level, starting all the way from October 2018.
It is obvious that purely from a technical perspective such levels are as good as a buy can get. Proper risk management and an exit strategy are needed (in case of delisting) and long-term investors can be patient and take their time to target the $122.50 High again for enormous gains (could take even 1 year).
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[SMCI] High Risk / High RewardOn this asset I am wanting a very big profit in term of percentage.
By looking at the fundamental we have a very strong stock with a center of interest field but the news made it dump. As in 2017, I expect this stock to survive the crisis and to come back even stronger to target new highs.
This will be my first entry and will manage then to add.
Great trade !
[SMCI] High RIsk / High Reward InvestmentOn this asset I am wanting a very big profit in term of percentage.
By looking at the fundamental we have a very strong stock with a center of interest field but the news made it dump. As in 2017, I expect this stock to survive the crisis and to come back even stronger to target new highs.
This will be my first entry and will manage then to add.
Great trade !
Nov 6: SMCI bottomed and will rally to ATHSMCI has bottomed here after undercutting the previous congestion zone and reversed quickly up with a capitulation candle on the daily after an exhaustion gap.
The last leg was a fast and truncated Y leg (0.618 of W) in the WXY correction, and has erased all RSI divergences.
The drop may seem deep but is only under 0.318 of the whole rally from 2018.
Sentiment-wise, the drop has done its job to reset sentiments as everyone is hating on it.
Bad news always come out at or near the bottom.
Jesus christ!This is the classic example of how a company can lose value when several factors come together. We have an analysis that mentions an issue within the board, an auditor who resigns arbitrarily, and a company that makes billions of dollars with a very good sales report, profit margin, etc. Technically speaking, the scenario is set for the company to potentially reach 60K. The company states that it found no traces of corruption within and is willing to do whatever is necessary to offer confidence to its investors. The only issue putting pressure on the stock price is the fact that they were unable to specify when they will present their 10-K form. This is why we are seeing this drop, which technical analysts are taking advantage of to create the perfect scenario for a major increase.
So, yes, I think it is a must-get
SMCI Never worst and less liquid. Smci live topic continues - the allegations rebuttal -
Hindenburg sounds more insidious that a drunk husband, quarreling with his drunk wife of 50 years.
Here is the rebuttal. The allegations have no legs and made Smci the gift of the century
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI):
Export Controls
• Even U.S. defense companies can inadvertently have products end up in restricted countries. SMCI must comply with U.S. export control regulations, but the Hindenburg report lacks specific evidence of violations.
Accounting Manipulation
• Past SEC charges found SMCI understated expenses, but the current report lacks detailed evidence of new manipulation.
Undisclosed Relationships with Suppliers
• SMCI has relationships with related parties (e.g., CEO’s brothers’ companies), which could raise governance concerns but are not necessarily illegal. Disclosing these details could be sensitive due to industry competition.
Business Model and Competitor Dynamics
• As an assembler, SMCI relies on confidential relationships with suppliers. Competitors like Dell and HP would benefit from any disclosed information, making secrecy crucial.
Market and Competitive Context
• SMCI’s growth depends on innovation and meeting demand for AI and cloud solutions. Historical issues and current practices raise red flags, but the context of complex supply chains and competitive dynamics is important to consider.
These points highlight the complexities and potential motivations behind the allegations against SMCI, while also considering the broader industry context.
THERE IS NOTHING HERE, THAT MAKES ANY OF IT ILLEGAL.
Then there is the issue of liquidity. Id delisted from the nasdaq the sahres become less liquid, but never less liquid that today and yesterday. Thus, as long as the sales keep on happening I DON'T CARE like that song I DON'T CARE, I love it, I don't Care. This is a lotto ticket gentlemen, with great odds. You risk what you will. I love it, and I don't care.... we will next week what kind of pop we get, I contend it should be huge, liquidity or not I Don't Care.
Will ad more, but I am expecting a beat of at least 7% with respect to last quater and a net revenue of 9%
The rest the fact that DELL and HP are likely pressing duttons to call E&Y to tell them how dare you we will not use you if you enable SMCI (this is the movie I am playing in my haad, I never herd that conversations, or did ? I must be trippin._
SMCI after the resignation of E&YSuper Micro Computer's stock has recently experienced significant volatility, particularly following the resignation of its chief accountant. This event has raised concerns among investors, contributing to a notable decline in the company's stock price. The resignation was part of a broader context of challenges faced by Super Micro, including a federal investigation that has been ongoing since September 2024, which has further pressured the stock.
In the wake of the accountant's departure, Super Micro's shares fell sharply, reflecting investor anxiety over the company's governance and financial oversight. This decline is compounded by previous fluctuations in the stock, including a substantial drop of 28.6% earlier in September due to various market pressures and concerns about the company's performance and future prospecs.
The combination of these factors has led to a cautious outlook among analysts and investors alike. Many are now closely monitoring the situation, particularly as Super Micro prepares to report its earnings soon. The market's reaction to these developments will likely influence the stock's trajectory in the coming weeks.
SMCI *Huge Update*I know my charts are not pretty and I look pretty stupid a lot of the times. BUT.
I noticed something very strange with the time cycle charting tool. I was measuring the tops and bottoms to find out that the bottoming process on SMCI is scheduled to happen just before NVDA earnings.
Meaning... if SMCI follows the cycle we will see a huge dump before the 22nd-23rd of May. Then, after all retail investors are shaken out and people fear the recession/earnings, it will rocket up to make one more all time high run :)
High chance of being wrong but I love to share my ideas with you all! Let me know what you see and lets talk about it.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Strong Entry After Stock SplitSo far, we’re seeing a strong entry on NASDAQ:SMCI following the 1:10 stock split at the beginning of October. The stock has experienced a relief pump of about 20%, which is a solid move in the right direction. 🔥
Super Micro Computer announced on Monday that it’s currently shipping over 100,000 graphics processors per quarter. Additionally, the company introduced a new suite of liquid cooling products, which further fueled its shares, pushing them up 14% after weeks of slumping. If these gains hold, Super Micro is on track to add more than $3 billion to its market value.
At this point, the first resistance level has been met, and we are closely monitoring how the stock reacts. If NASDAQ:SMCI can reclaim and stay above this level, it will likely move toward the next resistance area, offering more potential for upside.
As always, we’re keeping a close eye on developments and will update you with any new moves.
Oh no.........gone are the 4 baggers !!!!Latest news here :https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-oct-factory-activity-returns-014907489.html
It is scary that the management overstate its revenue and profitability to fool the shareholders.....
To think that it is included in the S&P500 index would mean it has passed certain tests, but who knows......what goes up fast, came down just as fast ............
What to do if you are holding this stock ?
Personally, I would have lost faith in the management and getting another auditor would not solve the problem. How about replacing the CEO? This can happen but it would takes time to turn around........
I think the chances of it falling through the support at 26.68 is high and panicky retail investors would rush to offload ........
Please DYODD
Correction Still Not OverI have smci in a wave 5 of c corrective and have a price target of 170 to 100 the final flush will be very painful for those holding this stock. Remember parabolic moves correct to the downside.
Not financial advice use for entertainment purposes only.
SMCI (complete reboot)Just initiated my first long entry, as this stock has completely wiped out it's parabolic run as anticipated, if this level is broken i am looking to add at 18$ then at 10$, for a long term holding position.
SMCIholding 49.70 heading to 66
an upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
SMCI Is it a buy after -35% dip and the leave of their auditors?Super Micro Computer is oversold on all timeframes and is approaching that level even on 1W (RSI = 35.160, MACD = -7.190, ADX = 44.214). The reason for the -35% daily collapse is of course the resignation of their auditors, Ernst & Young, which have raised concerns over SMCI's governance since late July. News have even hit the market that there are fears of delisting. Now fundamentally, even though the street has seen its fair share of accounting frauds in the past, those make up only a tiny minority.
Normally when such pessimistic news hit the market, long term investors should be viewing the dynamics objectively. Is it worth buying despite all the negatives? A quick answer can be given by just looking at the technicals. Any high cap stock that falls roughly -75% from its All Time High (ATH) is objectively a great long term investment opportunity.
For SMCI in particularly it has almost lost -75% of its value in 8 months, with the company absorbing almost any negative news there could be out there. The price is right now at $33.00 with its 1W MA200 currently sitting at $22.95 (and rising), which is the long term support since April 20th 2020. Before that trendline, there is the HL 2 to consider that started on July 5th 2022. In the meantime, the 1W RSI is testing sideways the S1 Zone, a buy level that is holding since July 2015.
It has to be said that the -75% decline is SMCI strongest within such period of time, with the most recent before it being during the U.S.-China trade wars (October 1st 2018 at -68.30%). That collapse recovered in 6 months as it reached its 0.786 Fibonacci level.
If SMCI announces soon their new auditing firm and calm the market about their practices, there is a strong probability to see the price testing the current 0.786 Fib (TP = 90.00).
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SMCI Bull run overWe ended the fifth impulsive wave a lot higher and the ongoing collapse is nowhere near ending. The bull market is well and truly over for SMCI.
Trade the charts, not the news. I did bring this to your attention 3 weeks before the news of potential accounting fraud became apparent.
I did warn bag holders not to buy the dip - look my related post. Instead I got hate and dislikes for my post. It's like people don't want to hear the truth. Don't love anything that won't love you back, speculative assets included.
The truth is that risk management is key to preserving wealth. I was against buying the dip, there is a potential long trade to be had at way lower levels. However, in light of the accounting issues this company is in deep trouble and people are fighting to get to the exit door.
Not financial advice, just my thoughts. Do what's best for you, if you want to buy the dip then good luck to you.
This ballon looks like it’s running out of airBe very careful buying the dip on SMCI, there is literally not floor underneath.
There is hardly any support beyond where it’s sitting at the moment. If it fails to bounce here we are talking a drop to the $300 level.
The trend is your friend, I’m afraid that remains to the downside.
Do what’s best for you. This is not financial advice, just my thoughts.
SMCI $60 EASY THEN MUCH MORE.. READ THE IDEA. pls.... SMCI IS THE ONE I AM BETTING WILL POP THE MOST. The delays in filling are nothing more than growing pains. Read this report entirely, so that you get the idea. MSCI fundamentals are as strong as ever.
The rest is secondary, it is sales and revenue all that matters, the delays have been explained. The endorsement is NVDA, the super star of companies. The Hindenburg Report ruffled feathers, the feathers of limelight seekers at the SEC, the 3 minutes of fame. A nothing burger in the end. Meanwhile, what a gift. Finally a lotto ticket with great odds.
SMCI Super Micro - regulatory filing this and that, what maters is how good their products are and how much they have sold. The answers to these to premises, is a lot. And a lot means return on investment. The delay filling is likely the product of extreme difficulty in reporting compliance. Did you know this same issue is facing thousands of companies around the world. It seems that the global IQ has declined, hehe, no no for real, and number crunchers need to be extremely analytical, the things is that analyticals make much more in other professions, and what is left is deficient.
I know full well that SMCI will file what it needs to file, but I also know their products are second to none, and that means caching for the shares.
The background and preamble:
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is delaying its filing of the annual 10-K report due to several issues:
Internal Control Assessment: SMCI has stated that additional time is needed for management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024
Accounting and Financial Reporting Concerns: A report by Hindenburg Research alleged accounting manipulation, including premature revenue recognition and undisclosed related-party transactions. These allegations have raised concerns about the company's financial practices and contributed to the delay
Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: The delay has attracted regulatory attention, including a non-compliance notice from Nasdaq, which requires SMCI to file the report or submit a compliance plan within 60 days from the notice date. Additionally, there is an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into the company
These factors have collectively contributed to SMCI's decision to delay filing its annual report.
Key Dates
Original due date: August 29, 2024
Non-compliance notice date: September 17, 2024
60-day deadline: Approximately November 16, 2024 (60 days from the notice date)
Maximum potential extension: Approximately February 25, 2025 (180 days from the original due date).
SMCI
Potential Accounting Issues
The delay comes amid allegations of accounting irregularities:
On August 27, 2024, short-seller Hindenburg Research published a report accusing SMCI of "glaring accounting red flags" and engaging in a "fraudulent revenue recognition scheme"
Hindenburg claimed SMCI was prematurely recording revenue for equipment that could not be delivered or installed, and booking revenue for faulty or incomplete products
I beleive that SMCI is growing so fast, and that massive growth ia generating issues in the process, issues that many companies face, however, in the case of SMCI considering Hindenburgs Opportunistic take on markets, saw SMCI and NVDA at a fractal pivot point and the took advantage, however, as SMCI is an illiquid stock, especially before the split, they had to put another bullet to tranquilize the herd and now cause it to come back and buy all the shares bach much faster giving them no change to adjust. Like what just happened to tesla for example.
All these accusations lead to ..... Regulatory Scrutiny.
Regulatory Scrutiny
The filing delay has attracted regulatory attention:
SMCI received a notification from Nasdaq on September 17, 2024 stating that the company is not in compliance with Nasdaq listing rule 5250(c)(1), which requires timely filing of periodic reports with the SEC
On September 26, 2024, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had initiated an investigation into the company
So here is where we are.... SMCI is the working partner for NVDA and Charles Liang seems like a smart man. The SMCI servers sell super well.
I beleved SMCI is a super clean entity, and that they will comply with fillings, but what is much more relevant to me is cash made, and cash made with SMCI seems huge.
10/30/24 - $smci - Quick comment on mkt implications10/30/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI
Quick comment on mkt implications
- trick, no treat for smci
so here's the treat ex. scmi...
- an nvda top 5 customer has implications for nvda that probably keep it in a short-term holding period (upside "capped" vs. other mag 7 that report e.g. meta and msft - beats - tonight)
- there is SO much demand for nvda chips that even if a top 5 drops out, u guys realize msft, meta, amzn, googl, elon... will take 100% of that demand
- so what happens here is that the mkt will probably "overly" reward a meta or msft beat bc the flows/ implications of index higher rotate less incrementally to nvda and chips (even tho you should be buying tsm, avgo as well as nvda)... and to the mega/ googl/ msft complex. this means index higher.
thought it's important to mention.
V
IS SUPER MICRO COMPUTERS ($SMCI) FINALLY BOTTOMING?! IS SUPER MICRO COMPUTERS ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) FINALLY BOTTOMING?!
3 REASONS WHY:
1⃣ We have DIVERGENCE on the Weekly Chart
2⃣ It's almost a "High Five Setup"
3⃣ Take a BREAK and find out by watching. 👇
Stay tuned for more!🔔
Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂
Will Super Micro finally get back on track after the insane negative sentiment and news articles?!
Not financial advice.
Incoming 40% correction for Super Micro Computer, Inc.On the above 4 day chart price action has rallied 270% since January. And 3000% !!! since June 2022. It is somewhat unfortunate to see so many long ideas at the moment.
Motley Fool June 30th:
“1 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Before It Soars 70%, According to Loop Capital”
“Loop Capital thinks Supermicro is going to $1,500”
Madness.
Why bearish?
Broken market structure. It is very clear to see, price action has broken the last higher low AND confirmed it as resistance. You can see this more clearly on the daily chart below.
Double top bearish divergence. On the 3 week chart below price action prints a RSI lower high (red arrows) with a higher high in price action. On this time frame an important trend shift is indicated.
Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
1 day broken market structure
3 week bearish divergence
