NVAX I believe that exceeding the 4.35 level is important for a bullish reversal signal, otherwise we could see new lows
NVV1 trade ideas
NVAX - Big PictureNVAX has been making lower lows since 1998, and price is currently falling towards the descending angle. (orange circles)
Will it touch it again? If price falls below $3 it will.
Looking at the big picture, every time NVAX touched this declining trend line, price went parabolic.
How high could price go?
Look at the purple channel. Price either peaked at the bottom or the top of the parallel channel. (white circles)
It took about six months to three years to go from the bottom of the descending angle to its blow off top. And it saw gains between 10 - 70X.
Where would price retrace to after the blow off top?
Look at the yellow parallel channel. Price retraced to the top of the channel, and eventually fell into this channel, bouncing within this range.
Prices could never find support on the bottom of the channel, and broke below, falling to the descending angle and creating another lower low.
The only exception was in 2012, where price was able to break back out of the channel and reached a blow off top in 2015.
Watch the 21 EMA. (blue moving average) If price bounces off the descending angle, in the future watch when it breaks above the 21 EMA. If price can find support on top of the 21 EMA, it should carry price to its blow off top.
Does a touch of the descending angle guarantee a bounce up to its blow off top in the purple channel?
No. But looking at the history of NVAX, it has done this 4 times since 1998.
Could price touch the descending angle, and fall way lower?
Sure can. $3.54 is NVAXs all time low. Breaking below this price, which it would if it touched the descending angle, would mean there's no support left to prevent price from falling to the pennies. I'm not saying this would happen, but it's possible, especially when price enters unchartered all time lows.
NVAX Looking BearishThis is a split screen of NVAX, both on the weekly time frame.
The chart on the right is the bollinger bands. Currently there's a squeeze and the mouth is just beginning to open. Price is under the white basis line, and if the mouth of the bands begins to open wider, it's likely price will get dragged down and ride the bottom yellow band.
The chart on the left is a line chart with oscillators. Price has been trading within a range since February of 2023. (Yellow parallel channel) It's been bouncing between the $6.35 and $9.50 level. If price breaks below the $6.35 level, it would then test $5.00 as support. (Orange dashed line)
Looking at both the rsi and stochastics, strength and momentum are falling, and are in bearish territory. So there's a chance price could break below the parallel channel.
Couple this with the opening of the bollinger bands, and NVAX looks very bearish.
NOVAVAX we can waitHello investors, we are all looking for the chance to manage our money ourselves and make high profits. I would like to make my own contribution to this. Here is my trade from NOVAVAX. My idea invest 100 eur or usd and get almost 900% profit. Buying and holding is currently the best option. Basically, I advise everyone who follows my recommendations, but also others, to find out about market trends, companies and, above all, future prospects. In the future, I will publish 2 trend positions from the areas of stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies for review every week. Have fun and good luck
$NVAX Novavax, Inc. Long term PT 360 and higherNASDAQ:NVAX Novavax, Inc.
Long term PT 360 and higher
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, that promotes improved health by discovering, developing, and commercializing vaccines to protect against serious infectious diseases. It offers vaccine platform that combines a recombinant protein approach, nanoparticle technology, and its patented Matrix-M adjuvant to enhance the immune response. It focuses on urgent health challenges, which is evaluating vaccines for COVID-19, influenza, and COVID-19 and influenza combined. The company is commercializing a COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373 under the brand names of Nuvaxovid, Covovax, and Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted for adult and adolescent populations as a primary series and for both homologous and heterologous booster indications. It is also focusing on products candidates for respiratory syncytial virus and malaria. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
NVAX Novavax Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVAX during the Covid Pandemic:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVAX Novavax prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 7.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.87.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Novavax Bullish?Hi Everybody.
Novavax just has good news in the UK, which can be the trigger to push the price higher.
I like to find Gaps that are usually filled up by time.
There are lower gaps as well, but I think from here we go up, what are your thoughts?
10x can be for the next few months if that theory plays out.
Leave a comment.
NVAX Novavax Vaccine approved! Buy Opportunity!If you haven`t bought NVAX during the pandemic:
Then you need to know that NVAX Novavax's recent achievements in gaining full marketing authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, in the UK and Singapore, alongside its availability in major U.S. pharmacies, have ignited optimism among investors. These milestones signify a bright future for NVAT stock.
The international authorization of Nuvaxovid opens doors to vast markets, enhancing revenue potential and global recognition for Novavax. the EU delayed the approval, but will update its decision by the end of this month.
Nuvaxovid's availability at CVS and Rite Aid in the U.S. immediately after regulatory clearance demonstrates its acceptance and accessibility.
Nuvaxovid is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, different from the mRNA vaccines of PFE and MRNA.
My price target is $10 by the end of this month.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$NVAX Trending Back Down to the Buy ZoneNVAX has started distributing millions of COVID-19 vaccine shots. However, NVAX is trending back down towards the buy zone. I think that this will present a great second chance buy opportunity after NVAX's recent rally to $8. The markets have been affected by the new Israel Palestine conflict. Other key events this week are September PPI inflation data and Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday October 11. I think the markets are likely to have some sideways price action on Tuesday in anticipation of the new inflation and fed data.
Covid & Vaccine Related Novavax Long Play in the cardsHi guys! So lately theres been some buzz on a particular variant, increased cases of hospitalizations and government backing. At risk population that require vaccinations/ boosters will always exist. Therefore, i believe this fact along with various technical analysis findings can make companies such as Biontech, Moderna and even not as famous Novavax potential plays.
(Look below for my analysis on Biontech)
Jumping right in. This is a technical analysis on Novavax (NVAX) on the 3 day timeframe.
Zoomed in we can see that we have a GOLDEN CROSS.
Between the:
21 EMA
50 SMA
Being on the 3 Day its ALOT more Powerful than having it on 1 Day and it may influence the larger timeframes. Which is what we want.
We have also maintained SUPPORT on both Moving Average. (21 EMA and 50 SMA)
This is a great sign, if we continue like how we are with our current candle during the close that would further confirm Support and a bullish case in my opinion.
This 3 day candle will close on the 8th of September. Pay attention to how big the body of candle gets on the close.
With this i would like Volume to start to pick up especially if and when we get to the "flat trendline".
Another important development to notice is the Ascending Triangle.
This can be giving us evidence we are in the process of BOTTOMING out.
Watch for the breakout ABOVE the Flatline. This with confirmation of Support on flatline would be a Major Area to take Long Positions.
I would ADVISE AGAINST buying inside the triangle. But Belowthe Ascending Support Line would be an area for Stop losses.
Watch also how the MACD acts. If we continue in Green and the Blue/Orange lines make it ABOVE 0 level. We will be off to the races, as it would be the necessary catalyst that provides momentum to have the triangle play out.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on NVAX in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
$NVAX Key Price Targets After 10%+ Intraday RallyNVAX has been one of our best performing stocks that has been trading in an accumulation range between $7 and $9. I believe that NVAX is trending for an upward breakout in Q4. The FDA has approved NVAX's COVID vaccine for patient ages 12+, and the European Union is set to make a decision in October. I believe that NVAX has promising short-term outlook that will lead to a rally with a break above $9. So far $9.18 has been a key resistance target, but I believe that NVAX will ultimately break out to the light blue resistance level at $16.21
$NVAX Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisNVAX has received solid support in the buy zone ($6.50-$7) throughout Q3. I think NVAX will have its breakout in Q4 and the key resistance targets are the $16.21 and $23.13 price levels. October will be an important month for NVAX with the European Union deciding whether to approve the NVAX COVID vaccine. Germany already has an interest in placing an order for 10.6 million vaccine doses in Q4 if NVAX does receive approval.
Novavax (NVAX) Imminent Breakout from this Accumulation RangeI started an Investment Gems series with hopes of finding the best long-term investment opportunities in the bear market. NVAX was by far my favorite investment opportunity because I see a clear path for NVAX to climb from $6-7 price levels to $288. As discussed in my previous analysis, NVAX has reached this $288 price target 3 times in the past and I believe that there will be a fourth time.
My previous analysis can be found here:
Current Accumulation Range
At the end of May I began posting NVAX as an investment gem with a buy zone between $6.50 and $7 (the two yellow lines).
Bullish news came out, in which NVAX was given a $350 million payout for unused COVID vaccines that resulted in a quick 55% pump to the orange trendline ($9.18)
We have been trading NVAX along this accumulation range by selling above the $9.18 orange trendline and buying in the buy zone between $6.50 and $7.
These buy and sell opportunities are marked with red and green arrows.
NVAX is currently trending towards the buy zone for another buy opportunity. However, I think that NVAX is likely to breakout from this accumulation phase within the next few weeks or months.
I would be cautious of getting shaken out by selling at $9.18 and NVAX ends up trending up higher towards the long-term $288 price target. For me NVAX is a long-term play to $288.
$NVAXdefinly on the most important charts for the next days, looking for some momentum if the price breaks 10.30s area
NVAX - At a critical crossroad
3D chart showing incredible symmetry just below VMA.
Daily holding well above 60VMA
Another daily close above current level would confirm a breakout with possible targets at 11 and 17.
Bear case: for the volume seen last couple of days, price should have moved up, so makes me wary of fade below 8.
Disclosure: I am long via commons with 8 as the stop loss for now.
NVAXThe volume patterns on this look primed. The break over the trend line is my signal to go LONG here.
Target 80Following weekly chart.
- Now covid variant on the way
- Novavax vaccine is working for the new variant, if it spreads more, company is on a way to make good money.
And technically we're on a deep.
TP1 - Following EMA100 for a first target
TP2 - 80 is a nice area as a fibonacci level and a resistance.
TP3 - Planinng to hold some till 250, it reached 2 times before, why not a 3rd time?
SL is clear, stop when there is a new low.
NVAX : Another Covid Run?NVAX could be forming a large Weekly Inverse Head & Shoulder.
If this pattern is to break out, it likely means we have new Covid strains and potential lockdowns.
NVAX Long Term Investment to $288AX buy range was between $6.50 and $7. I was also willing to DCA down to $5.50.
After entering the buy zone, bullish news came out and NVAX had a 55% pump to $10.
$8 was acting as a local support level and NVAX is showing continued bullishness for now.
This is a long term hold for me (3-5 years with a long term price target around $288)
Target Price
TP 1
$10 is the first key price target
TP 2
$23 is the second key price target
I can add more price targets later, but I will be holding until $288.
Will Novavax NVAX go higher? SHORTNVAX popped today for a price jump of more than 20%. Canada agreed to pay out on a contract
for COVID vaccines it now does not want in the amount of $350M. This is hardly enough to
the fundamentals of the company overall. So the question arises, have traders and / or
investors overreacted to a one time bonus which is essentially revenue without overhead and
expense. My opinion is that this is an overreaction and that the price will drop after the
pop hits a high. Buying long right now is essentially the risk of buying a high that will not
go higher. On the Chris Moody dual RSI indicator, the longer one hour TM in black is over
75 while the shorter 5 minute TM in blue has peaked and dropped from 95 to 60. This is
in essence bearish divergence. The other indicator, the mass index, shows the value
arriving at the reversal zone where a drop to below 26.5 will be the trigger.
Overall, for both fundamental and technical reasons, I will enter a short trade on NVAX
expecting a correction / pullback from the pop the stock got after a one-time bonus of
a payout for not producing unneeded vaccines.
Can NVAX rise again?NVAX has had significant down trending over a wide range of time. On the 4H chart it seems to
be pivoting from a swing bottom 3-4 days ago. This is accompanied by a cross of the MACD
lines under the histogram on that indicator and a flip of volatility on the relative volatility
indicator. NVAX has been subject to significant short selling. Price is presently nearly
two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP set in mid May. Basically it is in
deep undervalued oversold territory and now with a rise. The volume profile has a point of
control level considerably above the mean VWAP. This is the level with the highest volume
of trades showing most trades occurred well above VWAP. This would be traders taking
profit and selling or alternatively short sellers opening a position but more likely a combination
of them. Price wants to ascend to at least VWAP if not the POC line. My analysis is that
any significant rise could begin a squeeze on short positions. Those closing with a buy to
cover trade would in effect be synergizing new buyers and add to the bullish momentum,
Accordingly, I will open a position early and see if I can get in ahead of a potential
short squeeze. While speculative, a narrow stop loss at 6.80 the second band line below
the mean VWAP will take a lot of risk off the trade and allow me to be patient comfortably
watching the price action.
NVAXNVAX is trading near lows and forming a bottom
as long as rising trendline and 7$ area is kept there is a possibility for a move higher
there is high short float as well
targets on chart
$NVAX Covid Stockpile RaceOnce high short data collides with a significant catalyst the possibility of a short squeeze skyrockets. This might be the case for struggling Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) which faces the risk of filing for bankruptcy due to the waning demand for Covid vaccines. With this in mind, NVAX’s Covid vaccine was recently endorsed by the EMA for full approval which increases its chances of being included in the EU stockpile efforts. If the vaccine gets included in the EU stockpile, NVAX stock could be poised for a rebound as bankruptcy risk may be alleviated – which increases the chances for a short squeeze.
NVAX Fundamentals
COVID-19 made it abundantly clear that vaccine producers are a vital component of our healthcare apparatus. That said, demand for COVID-19 vaccines has been waning ever since the end of the pandemic. Major vaccine producers such as AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ: AZN) recorded sharp declines in revenue due to this waning demand as it reported a 64% YoY decline in revenues in its Q2 earnings. Similarly, NVAX experienced a steep fall in revenue from $703 million in Q1 2022 to $80 million in Q1 2023. NVAX is currently struggling due to this decrease in demand and may even face bankruptcy with the company stating that it is operating as a going concern in its Q1 report.
Bankruptcy Risk
Due to the decline of COVID-19 vaccine demand NVAX suffered a significant blow to its revenue stream as its product sales declined more than 100% in Q1 due to declining demand and a $65 million revenue reversal associated with doses delivered in 2022 that are scheduled for future replacement. Additionally, NVAX has a cash balance of $624.9 million which would fund the company for 2 quarters at its current cash burn rate. Looking to cut expenses to navigate through this dire financial state, NVAX laid off 25% of its workforce, however, this might not be enough as the company’s cash burn rate is significantly high.
EMA Endorsement
Despite this, there might be a ray of hope for NVAX as its Nuvaxovid Covid vaccine was endorsed by the EMA for full authorization. This move might save the company from bankruptcy since full authorization could be critical for NVAX as the EU is stockpiling Covid vaccines and the EMA’s endorsement could be the first step for inclusion in the stockpile. Currently, the EU has a population of 748 million and the EU’s efforts to stockpile vaccines could provide NVAX with substantial revenues if its vaccine is included. In this way, the potential revenues could offset the company’s costs which would eliminate the risk of bankruptcy.
Short Data
Considering the company’s financial woes, NVAX stock is witnessing a strong short selling activity with a short interest of 38.6%, 38.7% of its float on loan, and a 100% utilization rate. If Nuvaxovid is fully authorized and is included in the EU stockpile, NVAX would be able to stave off bankruptcy which might trigger a short squeeze thanks to NVAX stock’s short data.
NVAX Financials
According to its latest Q1 earnings NVAX’s total assets sharply declined QoQ from $2.2 billion to $1.5 billion QoQ with its cash on hand declining from $1.3 billion to $624 million. However, liabilities decreased QoQ from $2.8 billion to $2.4 billion with current liabilities declining to $124 million from $216 million.
In terms of revenues, NVAX reported a steep YoY decline from $703.9 million to $80.9 million due to declining demand for Covid vaccines and a $65 million revenue reversal associated with doses delivered in 2022 that are scheduled for future replacement. At the same time, operating costs decreased YoY from $494.6 million to $393.7 million. Despite this, NVAX’s net profit of $203.4 million in Q1 2022 turned into a net loss of $293.9 million in Q1 2023.
Technical Analysis
NVAX stock is in a bearish trend with the stock trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, NVAX is trading below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs – with the stock testing the 21 MA as a resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 49 and the MACD is neutral.
As for the fundamentals, the main catalyst for NVAX stock is staving off bankruptcy risk. With the EMA endorsing the company’s Covid vaccine for full authorization, NVAX’s chances of survival are higher than ever since its vaccine could be included in the EU stockpile. Considering the stock’s short data, a short squeeze could occur if Nuvaxovid is included in the EU stockpile – eliminating the risk of bankruptcy.
NVAX Forecast
NVAX is in dire financial straits and its only saving grace is the current EU’s vaccine stockpiling efforts. That said, a short squeeze is likely due to the EMA’s recent promotion of Nuvaxovid, which could be seen as a step towards inclusion in the European stockpile. However, inclusion is not assured and if Nuvaxovid is not included, then bankruptcy could be inevitable.
