Ryanair Takes Off Strong Despite TurbulenceBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst, ActivTrades
Ryanair (ISE: RYA) closed its 2024/25 fiscal year with results that—despite some headwinds—demonstrate the resilience of its ultra-low-cost model. The Irish carrier posted a 4 % increase in revenues to €13,950 m, up from €13,444 m in 2023, while net profit fell 16 % to €1,610 m, penalized by fares that were 7 % lower and disputes with online travel agencies that impacted ticket sales. Despite the drop in profitability, Ryanair carried a record 200.2 million passengers over the past year—9 % more than the previous period—and has revised its guidance to 206 million passengers in 2026 thanks to a rebound in fares and summer bookings, which are already 1 % ahead of last season.
Key Financial Data
• 2024 (year ended 31 Mar 2024):
o Revenues: €13,444 m
o Net profit: €1,920 m
o Passengers carried: 200.2 m (+9 % YoY)
• 2025 (year ended 31 Mar 2025):
o Revenues: €13,950 m (+4 % YoY)
o Net profit: €1,610 m (–16 % YoY)
Analysis
As of the close on 20 May 2025, Ryanair’s share price stood at €23.70, having traded in a YTD range of €19.59–21.75—about a 23.5 % gain since January. On 2 May this range was breached, and the stock reached a high of €24.23 yesterday. That level corresponds roughly to the 23.8 % Fibonacci retracement, suggesting the price may struggle to exceed €25 without first establishing a new support level to underpin further gains. The current upside potential from today’s levels is around 3 %, and the consensus rating is “Outperform.” Moving-average crossovers support this bullish thesis: on 29 April, the 50-day MA crossed above the 100-day MA, confirming a strong uptrend and signaling stability. Additionally, the “bell signal” is robust within the trading range, reinforcing the case for a partial pullback toward the top of the range before the next leg up.
Outlook
With summer bookings and fares starting the season strongly, Ryanair plans to bolster its shareholders’ returns via a €750 m share buyback program and a €400 m special dividend, while optimizing its fleet in anticipation of potential delays to the 737 MAX 8 deliveries in Europe. The carrier believes that moderating fuel costs and strong underlying demand will support profitability in the 2025/26 fiscal year.
Conclusion
Ryanair once again underscores the strength of its ultra-low-cost model: it carried a record number of passengers, adjusted fares upward, and raised its traffic guidance—all despite margin pressure. With a solid stock performance (YTD gain near 24 %) and an analyst consensus rating of “Outperform,” the airline heads into summer with confidence. The €750 m buyback and €400 m special dividend reinforce its shareholder commitment, while lower fuel costs and efficient management of the 737 MAX fleet underpin expectations for a rebound in profits in 2025/26. In short, Ryanair is catching a favorable tailwind that could lift both its results—and its share price—to new highs by 2026.
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