Outlook TUI1 / TUI AGwould expect TUI to rise over the next few weeks, as Europeans become fond of travelling more and more again.
The uptrend shouldn't be undercut, otherwise the lows from mid-March could be tested once again.
TUI1 trade ideas
Lateral with a possible uptrendOn a daily chart, the incoming volume has steadily decreased and the price has remained stable.
I am not optimistic about a clear bullish trend, but there is a chance that volume will start to flow again in and slowly push the price.
TUI AG stock strong sell-offTUI AG is was already in a clear downtrend providing us with short opportunities at monthly imbalance around 12 per share. As expected price sold off strongly from that imbalance and has ended up created another huge imbalance around 11.39 per share.
We do not need to pay attention to stock fundamental analysis when trading supply and demand imbalances. Of course we can read about the company’s profile and even the big news but that should not prevent you from taking a valid trade using a supply and demand imbalance stock strategy.
HSBC has downgraded its investment rating on TUI AG, does that mean anything? Well, not really if we are supply and demand traders. We already know that the monthly timeframe has a bearish bias and new supply imbalances are being created. We should not care what HSBC or any other analysts say about TUI Ag stock, it will not change the fact that we have new strong imbalances.
Which company profits most from insolvency of Thomas Cook? The total turnover of the 5 largest German tour operators in 2017/18 was over 36 billion euros, twice as high as 15 years ago. At the top is a well-known company, which should profit most from the insolvency of the Thomas Cook Group.
You can find an overview of the profiteers of the insolvency here:
5. ALLTOURS
(1.44 billion euros + 1.73 million travelers)
In the 2017/2018 financial year, Alltours sent 1.73 million customers on holiday. The Group generated sales of 1.44 billion euros in 2017/18, with a profit before taxes of 42 million euros. This puts Alltours in fifth place among the largest travel companies in Germany.
4. FTI GROUP
(3.6 billion euros + 7 million traverlers)
The Munich-based FTI Group is the fourth largest travel company in Germany and has almost doubled its business volume in the past 5 years. The tourism group is represented in the D-A-CH region and employs over 10,000 people worldwide. The company has earned 3.6 billion euros with package and modular tours, language travel (LAL), luxury travel (Windrose) and cruises.
3. DER TOURISTIK GROUP
(6.7 billion euros + 9.9 million travelers)
In 2018, DER Touristik, which belongs to REWE Group, generated turnover of approx. 6.7 billion euros. The Group's head office is in Frankfurt am Main. The company employs more than 10,500 people and has 25 travel specialists, including Apollo, Dertour, Exim Tours, ITS, Meiers Weltreisen and Kuoni, who represent the Northern/Western & Eastern European tour operator segment. Proximity to the customer is demonstrated by 2,400 travel agencies in Germany, Switzerland, Eastern Europe and Great Britain.
2. THOMAS COOK GROUP
(10.65 billion euros + 19 million travelers)
The listed Thomas Cook Group (WKN: A0MR3W) is headquartered in London, but is also represented in Germany through its subsidiary Thomas Cook AG. By 2018, it was the second largest travel company in Germany and has around 21,300 employees worldwide, who now, from 23 September 2019, have to fear for their career prospects.
Well-known brands include MyTravel, Neckermann Reisen, Condor Flugdienst, Bucher Reisen and Öger Tours. The remaining 4 travel companies will certainly compete for these in the coming weeks and months, as everyone wants to win over the one or the other traveller of the yearly approx. 19 million holidaymakers for his own company.
1ST TUI AG
(19.6 billion euros + 27 million travelers)
Touristik Union International AG (WKN: TUAG00), better known as TUI AG, generated total turnover of 19.6 billion euros in 2018. The world's largest tourism group employs around 71,850 people and over 27 million holidaymakers book their holidays annually via the group and its subsidiaries. The tour operator is divided worldwide into the brands TUI, Robinson Club, RIU, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises and Marella Cruises. TUI AG's market share on the German market in 2018 was approx. 18 per cent and was thus in charge of 7.3 billion euros of total turnover.
As the "top dog", TUI AG could profit most from the insolvency of its competitor Thomas Cook and absorb the largest share of the newly distributed travel business.
The economic failure of the world's No. 2 enables the tourism industry to consolidate and improve margins, as many holidaymakers will certainly pay more attention to the solidity of the travel companies in the coming years. The worldwide No. 1, which is comparatively well positioned in the market with an equity ratio of over 19.8%, should benefit most from this.
