VOW3 trade ideas
Volkswagen Germany Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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VOLKSWAGEN AG- BREAKOUTVolkswagen is testing a major resistance level.
Bullish scenario: breakout of the resistance will generate new buys and end of the downtrend.
Bearish scenario: if the breakout is not successful, the downtrend will continue into the channel with a retest of the support level located at 160
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Volkswagen AG (VOW)VW is working with partners to improve battery system performance and costs down to the cell level. It plans to call a new battery cell in 2023 to be used in up to 80% of VW Group's electric vehicles by 2030. VW expects to reduce battery costs by up to 50% in the entry-level segments and up to 30% in the mid-market segments. loud volume. VW, together with partners, plans to have six active battery "gigafactories" in Europe by 2030. Each of the six plants will have an annual production capacity of 40 gigawatt hours (GWh), for a total of 240 GWh per year. The first two plants will be in Salzgitter, Germany, and Skelleftea, Sweden.
Will VW be the new Tesla?
Volkswagen (VOW3.de) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in the German company Volkswagen AG (VOW3.de) at daily chart. Volkswagen AG, known internationally as the Volkswagen Group, is a German multinational automotive manufacturing corporation. It designs, manufactures, and distributes passenger and commercial vehicles, motorcycles, engines, and turbomachinery, and offers related services, including financing, leasing, and fleet management. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 25/01/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 164.62 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 195.00 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Volkswagen Group posted its lowest sales figures in 10 years in 2021 at 8.9 million deliveries, the carmaker said last Wednesday, and it said it expected supply chain conditions to remain volatile in the first half of this year. The Volkswagen brand saw an 8.1% drop in sales to just under 4.9 million units, with the biggest fall in China at 14.8%, although battery-electric vehicle sales in the country quadrupled.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Volkswagen - long term bullish caseVolkswagen $VOW3 has bounced aroung the fib 50 level from prior top. If this is a AB=CD harmonics pattern in the making we should aim for 330. SL if we break below prior bottom in the trend channel. The bounce at ~156 also coinsides with a market profile LVN area. Temporarily ovsrbought (stochastics). But for the long term there seems to be good risk reward to this trade.
Volkswagen's EVs Taking Off, May Surpass NIO's Market Share Volkswagen's EVs Are Taking Off in China, May Soon Surpass NIO's Market Share
On October 22, SAIC Volkswagen ID.3 was launched in the country at CNY 159,888 to CNY 173,888 per vehicle.
Volkswagen China achieved a milestone of 10,000 EV sales in September 2021.
We dissect Volkswagen's EV sales through three perspectives: product, production and marketing.
A solid EV lineup, concrete production capacity and improved marketing have made VW one of the fastest legacy brands shifting to an EV company status.
We expect VW to surpass NIO and Xpeng's market share very soon but remain shy of Tesla or BYD.
The global chip shortage has hurt the auto industry, with companies at the risk of cutting more production. Electric vehicles built on more technology attributes that need more chips should have been hit badly. However, Volkswagen China delivered stellar EV sales in Q3, which grew from 3,415 units in June to 10,126 units in September, eclipsing NIO and Xpeng's growth rates in the same period. As an EV brand once underrated by some Chinese consumers, how did the company lift its sales so quickly? This article will rewind Volkswagen's EV story in China and give it an outlook.
Entering the mainland market
Before entering China, in 2020, Volkswagen Group sold 56,500 ID.3 in Europe during the final four months, which proved ID's strong product power. One year later, VW started to consider launching and manufacturing special ID models in China. According to an official announcement, Volkswagen Group (China) rolled out two new IDs based on MEB's innovative modular electric drive platform at the end of 2020, including pure electric models FAW-Volkswagen ID.4 CROZZ and SAIC Volkswagen ID.4 X. The two models are larger than ID.3 and tailored to Chinese consumers. They had started production in Foshan and Anting factories, and the products would be launched in early 2021. These two plants have a total annual production capacity of 600,000 vehicles. So, Volkswagen is one of the earliest legacy car makers that put EVs into production in the Chinese market.
With a concrete production line, the company began to pre-order ID.4 in China at the beginning of 2021. Compared with Tesla, Xpeng and NIO's lineup, some argued ID series were uncompetitive for shorter driving ranges, lacking intelligent features. But VW China has refreshed people's minds with spectacular sales growth.
In the beginning stage of selling, ID didn't perform well. The auto insurance data showed April saw 2,140 units sales of ID.4, which is tiny for the auto behemoth. Later on, VW adjusted its policy with the dealership network to stimulate them to sell more EVs, set a new team to deal with NEV sales and trained a special EV sales team to find the momentum.
Another critical initiative Volkswagen made is an omnichannel selling strategy. ID models are sold in the existing 4S stores and shopping malls. The shopping mall stores are invested and built by existing dealers, and there is no directly operated shop of OEMs. The company learned new retailing strategies from Tesla and NIO's success using multi-channels to acquire traffic. Volkswagen is opening EV-only stores in more malls, namely through ID. Stores. There are dozens of stores in Shanghai. It is also expanding into other megacities.
Following more ID models exhibited in shopping malls and 4S stores, ID saw a surprising increase in sales, which broke 10,000 monthly sales six months after delivery. By comparison, it cost NIO and Xpeng two years.
Will VW keep growing sales fast in the future?
We expect VW to acquire a larger market share in the following period. We judge the future delivery range of an NEV company from a perspective of the product, production capacity and marketing. ID models' product has won EU consumers' acceptance and should be accepted by the Chinese. The production capacity may be a problem, but Volkswagen has a one-million-global-EV-sales target this year, which was set when the firm was well aware of the supply issues. It ought to prioritize new energy vehicles production, and the inventory purchased at the end of 2020 can be used for some time. So, sales should continue to rise, but supply chain issues will impact capacity. Besides, the popularity of Volkswagen electric cars is increasing as more shops are built. By the end of this year, monthly sales are very likely to set a new record again.
To discuss the sales 'ceiling' of ID, we have to benchmark it to the industry leaders such as Tesla and BYD. After one year of mass delivery in China, Tesla gained its EV market share between 10-15%. BYD is shifting towards a full-EV brand and takes around 20% of China's NEV market. We believe Volkswagen is far from catching up with these two companies for being a legacy player but can surpass NIO and Xpeng's respective market shares in a year based on recent sales momentum.
In a nutshell
VW's solid EV product, concrete production capacity and omnichannel sales system made it one of the fastest legacy brands to complete an 'EV shift.' The sales momentum hints its future delivery will keep jumping. Although we don't think the company will quickly transform into an EV leader like Tesla in the premium segment or BYD in the lower price bands, it is very likely to grow its market share to overtake NIO or Xpeng's in the short run.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
Volkswagen AG technical analysisAs we can see from the chart, on 17th March, the price reached to the highest point since 2008 of 48 dollars and then dropped to around 30 dollars again. We can also see a triangle in the chart that the upper trendline is formed by connecting the three highs, while the lower trendline is formed by connecting the two lows. It seems likely that the price will touch again for the third time the lower trendline at around 31 dollars which makes it a strong support level for the stock. If the price reaction will be positive the next resistance will be again the upper trendline at around 36 dollars in the short-term till mid-term. I consider the last highest high on 17th March as a mid-term resistance level for the stock. Considering a stop loss at around 29.5 dollars and a target of around 40 dollars, would be a reasonable target for trading for the stock.
if you are interested in the fundamentals of Volkswagen stock, please check the link in this post I published in my Linkedin.
Volkswagen: Correction completed, Now on the rise again! LONG!Volkswagen had a great ascent in the past few months. Went through a corrective phase, now ready to resume the uptrend again after breaking out on the upside from the triangle. Time to go Long.
