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BUND trade ideas

Trade a better setup, trade value levels! (Topic to follow)Weekly: - Ichimoku is turning to neutral. Bit of similar picture like back in April-May/2015: weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, price below Kijun, Kumo shades price, but 100wma and forward Senkou B line (52 weeks average) is holding market well so far at 161,50+. Not a surprise. Kust because FED may hike once, ECB is not going to U-Turn any time soon. I believe they will start to talk about tapering QE and maybe will even do tapering next year, but even if it's gonna be so. we have few months until. - Heikin-Ashi signals consolidation, a possible local bottom at strong supp/res of 161,50: candle body shrinks, haDelta and DMO crosses up and build positive divergence further. I can immagine a retest to 164-164,90 in coming weeks. - In case market retests to Kijun (164,90), that would draw our attention to an interesting pattern: a possible major Head and Shoulders! A turn down from 164,90 could be the the first strategic bearish signal, beginning of a real storm in Bund. - EWO is slightly bearish, MACD signals consolidation (not bearish until above zero) Daily: - Ichimoku setup is still bearish, with trend supports at 163,60 and 164,90 (this value is in line with weekly Kijun!) - Heikin-Ashi pattern shows consolidation: mixed candles with haDelta stuck at zero. - EWO is bearish What kind of position we have to take on this market is very obvious: we have to look for shorts. However we have to be very smart how we pick timing and entry levels. I have some doubt this market will really continue selloff straight down from here, so right now it is not the best risk/reward to enter short in big. We have to be patient, and look for the BIG trade entry.
FX:BUND
by Kumowizard
Risk off -> safe haven buying -> GOTO Bund- Ichimoku setup and EWO is bearish - Heikin-Ashi signals were/are obvious: we have a local bottom. For few days it will likely tick higher. -> see ellipses - 163,50-163,90 is bearish support zone, this should block buyers... unless there will be a real global panic and risk off. I say it to emphasize we do not trade (sell in this case) something, just because it is at a possible support or a resistance! We only sell if we see a new high probability local top / sell signal at the supp/res level! (A good example for this is EURCAD, which simply washed through the Kumo twice (once down, now back up) within one month!)
FX:BUNDLong
by Kumowizard
Start of consolidation or pull backWeekly: - Ichimoku setup turned more neutra: Price below Kijun, forward Kumo ahead shades price. Average lines flat. - I expect 161,50 - 166,40 range to hold for this year - Heikin-Ashi signal is swing bearish - EWO neutral - MACD signal with Price below Kijun Sen confirms the market stopped trending higher and is moving in a sideaway range. Based on how far MACD signal line is above zero, and how thick Kumo we have below price, it will take a very long time before this market can reverse strategic bearish Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish until price holds below 165,50 - Heikin-Ashi signal: start of consolidation / pull back. - Bearish supports are: 164,50 and 165,40. Based on how strong risk off sentiment will be in coming days (weeks), we may see retest up to these levels. - EWO is bearish, but chance it makes a local bottom Strategy: reduce shorts. If you think about swing long, you may try it in small, but in that case US10y ($ZN) can be a better choice.
FX:BUNDLong
by Kumowizard
Bunds; The Bearish ScenarioThe long term picture for Bund market is getting increasingly bearish. Yesterday, Sentix reported that institutional investors's inflation expectation is growing and now they expect much less monetary support from central banks. Their assessment of future of the EZ economy has also markedly improved. This doesn't bode well for Bund market and the technical picture confirms this. I expect much lower prices going forward and this will pave the way for a decent rally in EURO. Good luck, Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe
FX:BUNDShort
by SharifAzadeh
If you are short, you have to watch these supp/res levelsWeekly: - Major trend and Ichimoku setup is still bullish, but as averages started to flatten out, we may see some longer consolidation phase, without substantial higher highe in price (lower low in yields). - Counter buélish Heikin-Ashi signal star5ted to weaken: see haDelta, which may cross down. haOscillator is still below zero, but this is mainly due to previous contract change discount. - MACD and EWO both show range consolidation is most likely in coming weeks/months. - Supports: 164,93 / 161,60. Upper resistance is 168, but Dec contract is very unlikely to reach it (due to cheapest to delivery cash bond yield), so for Dec contract real resistance is 166,25. Daily: - Ichimoku distorsions we've discussed few times already, still for market 165,48 "equilibrium" supp/res represented by Kijun and Senkou B is very important. - Heikin-Ashi candle turns red at bearish Kumo support and 100wma, but bearishness is not yet fully confirmed by haDelta and haOscillator. Momentum could pick up only if price breaks below Kijun and quantification indicators close below their zero lines. - EWO is neutral. Strategy: while you also have to follow the yield chart, not only futures price chart, I think best strategy is stay neutral, or half size shorts (selling into intraday spikes) with a clear stop loss above 166,35.
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard
Early signs of bullish exhaustionLeft panel - Bund futures: - Ichimoku setup is distorted due to previous contract switch (Sept-Dec) roll down, information deriving from Price relative to averages is less reliable now. Consider it as neutral. - However Heikin-Ashi signals are always reliable. This time watch our quantification tools: haDelta and haOscillator! Both indicators cross down at a relatively high print, signalling bullish momentum started to drop, chance for a local top here. It may take a few more days before we have a candle confirmation too. But that's why we use quantification tools in Heikin-Ashi system. This is the way we see signals earlier than the averaging and lagging candles show clearer picture of price action. - EWO is neutral. - MACD signal: pull back and consolidation phase, bearish bias will increase when/if histogram ticks down. Right panel - 10y German cash bond yield: - Spike to 8 basis points (0,08 %) yield, followed by sharp reversal and collapse to -15 bps (-0,15 %). Looking at averages the Ichimoku setup did not change much, it is neutral. - Again, in this volatile noisy environment, we have to listen to Heikin-Ashi filter. Similar action of haDelta and haOscillator in the yield chart: both crosses back up from a relatively low point. Looks the heavy buying in German 10y Bund may be close to its end. Downside in yield is quite limited from here. Strategy: exit longs. Maybe you can start to focus on smaller size swing short too, but in case yields start to move higher a bit, Italian BTP is still a better short. If you open shorts, no rush, try to sell spikes. Note: I am short both BTP (one full size) and Bund (half size) now.
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard
Heikin-Ashi says cover shorts, consolidatio/pull back aheadDaily: - The first deep "drop" on the chart was due to U6/Z6 contract change. - Second leg down was due to selloff triggered by ECB - Ichimoku setup is bearish, but price is far below Kijun and Kumo (equilibrium). Market needs consolidation. - Heikin-Ashi signals some pause in drop: doji candle, haDelta and haOscillator moves higher (still below zero) We'll likely see consolidation or even a pull back up to 165 in coming days - EWO seems to hit a local bottom. Small wave up possible 4H - Extremely bearish Ichimoku setup, but price far below shorter term equilibrium too. - Price could not make a lower low today. Heikin-Ashi signals indecision. - Positive divergences in haDelta, haOscillator and EWO - Possibility of a pull back to Kumo and Kijun is increasing! Cover shorts, and/or open small swing long with tight stop.
FX:BUNDLong
by Kumowizard
1
Short term consolidation or pull back is possibleAs this is a continous chart, indicators are distorted a bit due to previous change between front contracts, where we had a gap down between U6 and Z6 (Sept and Dec) Bund futures contracts. If you look only at Heikin-Ashi candle itself, then the message is: short term consolidation or pull back ahead. Bearish support is between 165-165,50 (as Kijun Sen will come lower soon). Should market spike up above 165, we can start to look for sell signals. For now cover some shorts, or if you have nerves, then open small swing long with tight stop at 162,95.
FX:BUNDLong
by Kumowizard
Bund 1 hWow thats more up than i thougt...Anyway they do nothing what i want... Don 't forget in 2 days is rollover time for the future. Only my opinion. 164,00 ist the point i thing and then up up till today guys. This site ist fantastic for trader, because all say trade your own plan and no trouble about short/long..bla bla.. from many german sites. Thanks to all people here. Also doch weitaus höher gelaufen als vermutet. Aber das ist tägliches am Markt. In 2 Tagen ist Kontraktwechsel auf Dez. Da sollte es nicht unter 164,00 gehen und dann wieder hoch bis 168,00 Aber tradet euren eigenen Plan! Das ist überall hier die Mission, deshalb finde ich dieses Forum so gut. Es wird nicht genörgelt warum gehst du short/long...blabla...Super danke an alle hier auch wenn ich nicht viel beitragen kann.
FX:BUNDShort
by powerseller
2