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BUND trade ideas

Is long term bull market losing momentum?Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is still bullish. Kijun Sen is catching up to spot price. - Long term bearish wedge formation in progress - Heikin-Ashi candle is bullish, but haDelta/SMA3 below shows some momentum problem, as market was unable to make a higher high for last 4 weeks - EWO and MACD are still bullish, but both has developed some bearish divergence - Supports: 165,75 / 164,45 / 160,50 Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, but Kijun moved up close to spot price. Tenkan and Kijun are at same level - Watch for a possible double top formation, with a slightly lower second high! - Heikin-Ashi shows loss of bullish momentum. haDelta however is still above zero line, so wether we'll have a bearish reversal or just a tight range consolidation first is still not clear. - Supports: 166,85 / 165,70 4H: - Ichimoku setup is back to more neutral. Price failed to make a higher high. - Price is very close to first support at 166,85. Maybe it holds, maybe it doesn't, but if market spikes once more and still failes to make higher high, then next selling wave will break the Kumo and 100wma. - Lower support is 165,75 Strategy: I prefer selling short this market on spikes. Especially if it delivers lower highs on 4H time frame. The real key is 165,75. Until it breaks, we have to suppose market will be trading in 165,75 - 167,75 range.
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard
As expected, pops from Kijun support. 4H confirms bullish force.It started slowly, but it pulled back as I expected. WHat's more it pulled back almost by tick to the expected retracement level around daily Kijun Sen. (please check previous posts) No surprise it could not fall more. The major trend is bullish..... but... we also have major question marks rising! Daily: - Bullish Ichimoku setup and trend is intact. QUESTION No.1: Will it make a relevant higher high? - Daily support zone is firm higher at 165,50-165,85. Trend support is around 164,50 (increasing) QEUSTION No.2: Is it building a major bearish wedge? 4H: - Bullish confirmation by both Ichimoku and Heikin-Ashi For now we just let it fly as high as it can. Heikin-Ashi will show us loss of momentum right in time as it did so many times. Where we have to start focusing is the 167,60-168,10 zone. Notes: looking at bonds price action globally, do you think the real economies are healthy? ;-) Also if we have a bond and equity "bubble" same time, what do you think metals will do? :-) And finally, in fact BONDS are in bubble, equities are just "mispriced". Bonds (debpt) can be printed in unlimited amounts. Meanwhile outstanding amount (face value) of stocks traded globally is decreasing relative to fiat currency boom. It will be a long way until, but I still think bond markets will collapse sooner than stock markets. And I also think metals will outperform in coming years as relative value compared to both bonds and stocks.
FX:BUNDLong
by Kumowizard
Loss of bullish momentumDaily: - Market is overbought. Some continuation failure at possible wedge top. - Heikin-Ashi shows Bulls are out of power! Pull back is likely ahead. - Lower EURUSD should also bring some selling in Bund futures. 4H: - Ichimoku setup is still bullish, but Tenkan and thus Senkou A started to point down - Heikin-Ashi candles and haDelta at zero shows indecision. - haDelta and EWO negative divergence is still working If 4H can't make a higher high, then take next sell signal. Retracement target 166 +/-
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard
Wedge in wedge, divergence within divergenceSomething is not pricing correctly here! If German 10y Bund is trading at -16 bps (-0,16 %) yield, it must be pricing some serious collapse of European economy, or it is traded as a DEM proxy, which means the Euro should trade a lot lower. But Euro is not trading any lower. Also 10y US vs Bund spread should tighten further. Real Money investors will start selling the negative yielding Bund and buy more Treasuries even though US yields at historic lows too. But nowadays it is very hard to see what is fundamental macro, and what is due to Central Banks' market manipulative policies with clearly no exit strategy. For this reason just watch the technicals and go with the changing flows. Daily: - Ichimoku Bullish, with Price around all time highs. Seems a bit overbought int terms of distance from Kijun and Senkou B lines as equilibrium levels. - Heikin-Ashi candle is bullish, but haDelta/SMA3 shows negative divergence. Price is getting close to a possible a wedge top. I don't think there is a lot more upside here. 4H: - Bullish Ichimoku with supports at 166,50 and lower at 166 +/- (Kumo zone) - Another wedge. We can call it a steeper 4H wedge within the daily wedge. - haDelta! Serious negative divergence here! Also we have a cross down of haDelta/SMA3! What is left here? 50-100 pips up? - EWO also shows some form of negative divergence. Bund futures can see a heavy reversal and quick selloff below 4H Tenkan Sen and the wedge. If you are long, time to get out / reduce positions. If you are looking to short, get ready! 165,50-166,00 retracement will be possible in case.
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard
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