BUNDS still range bound5/31: Still range bound. Would be nice to see a move back below 163.71. Unconcerned until above 164.39.
BUND trade ideas
Bunds, as proxy for rate fears are range boundBunds, as proxy for rate fears, are contained b/w 164 and 162. Waiting for trendline breaks. Otherwise, nothing to see here.
eurobunds topped out?struggling to push higher, US interest rate decision could push Eurobunds to the downside
BUND - 2H - Doubletop at structurelast time we reached this area i already posted an idea (link below) that worked out. now we retested this area once again.
i didnt go short right away since an extention beyond the white box couldve also been likly - in an abc type fashion - but now that we formed a doubletop im onboard looking for shorts. first scenario would be seeling some sort of neckline retest of the neckline. RRR on this trade is pretty good with rather safe 2.5 : 1 for a retest of the dashed line
Bund bearish px action started to accelerate - position update- Price dips below Kijun and Kumo
- Medium bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. Forward Kumo starts to thicken with 'Senkou A' pointing down.
- Heikin-Ashi candle is firm bearish, with increasing momentum.
- EWO is increasingly bearish
Hold/increase shorts until initial tgt ard 160,40
Are you ready for a big trade?Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, so is the major trend, but it looks like Price fails to break back above Tenkan Sen (9 weeks avg). Both Tenkan and Kijun turned flat, not pointing up any more -> Ichimoku says consolidation, loss of momentum
- Weekly supports are: Kijun (also important horizontal level now) at 160,70. Next is 100WMA and forward Senkou B (52 weeks avg) at 157,40+. Last support is: trendline and spot Senkou B (represents the 52 weeks avg 26 weeks ago!) at 154,40.
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision with initial bearish bias. Week not yet over, but haDelta/SMA3 has a serious warning.
- EWO has been decreasing. We can not call it a divergence, as you see price has dropped in line with EWO.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral. Price tried to break above Kumo few times, but always blocked by sellers.
- Heikin-Ashi has a bearish bias, but haDelta/SMA3 is hesitating ard zero line. Not a surprise, as no one really wants to go all in before the Clawn of ECB comes to the stage tomorrow.
- EWO down to neutral zero
- Short term support and the level where we can look to increase shorts is 162,80-163, Pretty close, so stay tuned!
Do you remember my reflation trade theory? If not, you can check my earlier posts about Bund!
Do you see what commodity space is doing? Exploding higher! Ideas, and stupid media reasons do not matter! I don't care why it is happening. Actually I now the primer reason behind commodity price movement. Very simple, and as technical traders this is the only thing that matters: THERE ARE MORE BUYERS THAN SELLERS!
Only price pays :-)
I know what more thing. If commodity prices go up -> inflation and inflation expectations will go up too! Even if CBs deny and will be reluctant to hike rates, long end of bond curves can start to suffer and reprice inflation. Bond curves will steepen.
I still insist that Bonds are/will be better shorts than equities. The real bubble is in bond mkt, so this will be the first big trade. (maybe equities later).
BUND - 4H - Breakout in progress?Thoughout the last year we saw a constant bull market in the Bund. now it seems its finally time for a little bit of releave (also due to stronger indicies)
we saw an impulse breakout recently violating trendlines of the recent upmove. after that we corrected upward in a slow fashion. now another impulse down become more and more likly after the hit of the 618 retrecment. so look for trendline violations.
i think we will most likly see a gartley type form - so a spike up again after hitting the first targetarea but if you want a second target zone it should be somewhere down at the retest of the next major trendline.
Where is the momentum? Lot of people asked me how comes that Bund futures contract in March could go so high, why is that the currently traded June contract is a lot lower while the cash market 10Y german bonds are also lower in yield (higher in price) since then?
First answer: I don't exactly know
Second answer: during calculation of a certain derivative Bund futures contract, system takes into consideration the so called "Cheapest to delivery" (CTD) cash bond as an underlying asset. My assumption is that vefore March expiry, the CTD cash bonds maturity, or rather its modified duration was a lot shorter than the recently used 10 year cash benchmark.
Means also thats yield was in fact a lot lower than the 10y benchmark! Don't forget, German cash bond curve is trading at negative yields upto 7 years! In case the March CTD was a shorter one, it may have had a yield of 5 bps instead of 20 bps.
+ there is also the forward curve contango issue.
Given this Futures contract mismatch it is a bit hard to evaluate technically the continous Bund futures chart. That's why on Twitter I ofte post the 10y Benchmark Yield chart too. Anyway, let's see how it looks:
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is bullish. First key support is at 160,70. Ultimate strategic support is at 157,30!
- Heikin-Ashi is hard to evaluate. The big bearish candles were due to the above mentionned March/June contract switch. If we strictly look at last 3 candles, one thing is sure. It is still slightly bullish, but misses momentum gain! See also haDelta.
Not a surprise given the fact ECB signalled a pause for now (at least short term they will be unlikely to deploy more easing), while also I see early signals of slight inflation pick up globally. In this case what is the value of holding a 10 year bond at 0,15 % annual yeld??? Hoping for a -0,05 %? Not for me thanks.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral. Price has been ticking up in a thick Kumo, trying to climb above Kijun for 5 days now, but it is always struggling ard 153,75. Forward Kumo is one point -> not much information this time (again, due to March/June contract switch)
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish, but there is not much momentum! Even if I take out the big dip from haDelta, it has obviously built a negative divergence.
- Supports below: 163,04 / 162,47 / 160-160,70 (trendline, but that's below Kumo level)
- EWO I consider neutral
The bond market is in a lot bigger bubble than Stocks!
I know, Central Banks have one and only one goal! Keep real rates negative as long as possible. Evene if inflation picks up to 2-3 % they will tolerate that and will be very reluctant to raise rates. Simply because on global debt side they have cornered themselves together with governments and corporates! This means front end of curves will stay lower for longer, BUT the yield curves may start to steepen at some point! That means long end bonds can selloff once real money investors realise the truth of real inflation / nominal rates vs real rates / central banks game triangle.
For these reason I will only look for sell signals in Bund too! I don't see the upside of holding long Bund positions.
Renko chartsNew to trading renko charts.Trading on the renko 1 day chart with a SMMA 4 and MA 9 with Ricardo Santos support and resistance seem to getting quite good results.use a RSI 14 as well to give the extra confirmation.
BUND - Deutschland über LongBUND has been in an uptrend for weeks, the price is bouncing up down in an ascending channel. From Ichimoku point of view, the lagging span has been blocked by the Kijun. It must break it to trigger the first buy criteria. The price tested the lower side of the channel and has been rejected. By looking at the RSI, you will see that 40 and 45 are important levels where price is often reversing (look at previous weeks), a RSI crossing the 50 level would be a second criteria for a long trade. First target is Kijun, then if price has enough momentum, it could attempt to reach the level 1.0 of the Fibo or maybe the upper side of its channel.
I don't take into account the ECB effect, I stick to what I see on the charts... "whatever it takes" ;)
Read of the day: system with a mix between Ichimoku and RSI - gaiatrader.com (I just noticed that Gaiatrader is on TradingView as well)
bund ending diagonal break out; short it seems that BUND is going to finish its uptrend and need some kind of huge correction or reversal and changing the overall uptrend
this can be a reversal point for correction or reversal. (you have to look at weekly TF)
good R/R.
Bund - 1H - Triangle after Batpattern completion. If we can break this triangle consolidation to the downside im looking to sell. the uptrend proves still a 1:1 and the downside potential is good enough to take this shot
"Who needs love like that?" - Update on levelsGerman 10Y Bond yield is trading ard 0,20 %, actually last week it even dipped below 20 bps. What a big love! But does it woth to love this baby so much? In the long run I think no one really believes buying Bund makes sense as a positive real rate investment. In short term of course "investors" are forced to buy it by regulators. But for me tecgnically this looks extremely overbought, with some developing bearish divergences, which means no value to hold longs at these levels.
Weekly:
- Perfect bullish trend channel, where price reached the top 2 weeks ago. Since then we had a lower high last week. Will is print another lower high this week?
- Within the big bullish trend a Wedge is possibly forming too
- Ichimoku is long term bullish, supports are quickly coming higher: Tenkan at 161,80, Kijun at 159,40 and and Senkou B at 156,20.
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish -> watch candle and haDelta development this week.
- EWO is bullish, but wave strength has reached approximately same height as one year ago. Market can not keep this momentum for too long.
Daily:
- Price is all over the roof. Short term maybe overbought. Mkt trades ard steeper short term trend line. Should it break below, a retest to Kijun could bring a healthy correction. Price has not touched Kijun Sen since December/2015
- Heikin-Ashi has signals of possible negative divergence via haDelta! Last two days spike was enough only for a lower high! haDelta/SMA3 is turning lower again.
- EWO probably had its top too.
All together we may still see some forced floating above 164, but it is not a good level to buy, nor a good technical structure to hold longs (especially multi- leveraged longs).
As volatility (ATR) also started to decline, maybe it worths a try to set up some (0,5 unit) counter trend short position too.
For this you can add 4H timeframe to make a more precise strategy on entry.
Bund: short opportunity Bund can offer great short opportunity.Looking for reverse or rejection signal in the resistance area (Orange rectangle).
RSI divegence is a warning signal for prepare to sell.
For information about stop loss and take profit points, contact me.
BUND Counter short..Weekly:
-Bullish Ichimoku
-Strong uptrend
-The move went too far too fast
Daily:
-Very Bullish
-HA red doji
-HA osc and EWO divergence
-RSI in bullish territory
4H:
-Prices broken Kijun
-EWO turned red
-Ichimoku is still bullish but we can see pullback to cloud here
This is still counter trend and should be taken in 0.5 size. Target is test of daily kijun. Lets see how this plays out.
"Too much love will kill you" - care longs!OK, maybe it won't be killed, but it will pull back, as there is a serious overshoot in bullish price action + some divergences.
Weekly:
- Bullish Ichimoku, but price got far above Kijun, Kumo and 100 WMA. Price almost reached upper line of possible long term wedge
- Bullish Heikin Ashi, but only slightly higher high, while haDelta has reached extreme high --> warning for possible momentum loss in coming weeks.
- In terms of yields cash bond is trading ard 0,31 % p.a. (almost zero)
Daily:
- Bullish Ichimoku, but again Price is far above Kijun and Senkou B. --> "overbought"?
- Price shot over possible bullish channel top --> "overbought"?
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish, but watch haDelta, which has been building a negative divergence. haDelta/SMA3 was unable to make a higher high since mid december 2015. (Strange fluctuation in momentum during this bull run)
Strategy: Watch for a daily Heikin-Ashi reversal signal, or open 0,5 unit swing short whenever price hits SAR point.
Note: if someone tells me BUND is a safe haven, I laugh my ... off! This is a risky, overleveraged, mispriced Fixed Income asset. Do you believe in 0,3 % or less inflation for next 10 years? ;-)
