BUND - Big picture still bullish, with chance for correctionDaily: Absolutely long term bullish picture, but Slow Stoch and MACD warns for a possible correction down to Kijun Sen, which is in line with horizontal support marked by Chikou Span peaks.
4 Hrs: No real sell signal yet, watch Kijun Sen here at 147,95. This level is in line with Daily Tenkan Sen.
1 Hr: Top consolidatio with Price enterring Kumo, flat Tenkan and Kijun lines, Chikou hit into price candles. DMI lost direction. Key level is the Kumo bottom, 147,95-148, which is in line with higher time frame (4 Hrs) Kijun Sen.
Stocks rally today again, European equities gaining bullish momentum on lower time frames. This should support selling in Bunds. UST may see some selling pressure today, but depends on US data flow.
If you are looking for a counter trend trade, wait for a sell signal at 148,00. Be wise, do not enter with more than 1 trade unit, place a tight stop ard local top 148,40.
BUND trade ideas
BUND - Sell signals lining up, so sell on topsBund tried to break higher, but it was enough only for a Kijun retest. Price turned down again from 144 level, and by now is back into the Kumo. 142-144 range is expected to stay for some time, but the bias is bearish.
Slow Stoch sell signal, MACD turnind down again, DMI is zig-zag with low ADX, Future Kumo bearish cross.
Sell in 143-143,50 range in more clips with stops above 144,10.
Trade is a lot dependent on tomorrow's ECB, but my personal view is still that ECB won't even cut the rate. QE? Except equities uber bullish pricing none of any other asset class believes in it now. That is something they brainstorming about, but for me that is a kind of ECB's last resort if things would turn really bad. Anyway, can anybody tell me how would they execute the QE, since Europe doesn't have a common eurobond market? What would they buy? Bund only? Or periphery bonds only? Or a mix? But then what kind of weighs to calc with? And what if one country once ever defaults on its local debt? Guys, Europe is not US, and ECB is a conservative and "devided" central bank, with a lot of internal tensions. It is not the FED.
Bund - confirmed bullish breakoutFinally Bund confirmed bullish breakout, to continue it's recent uptrend. Daily MACD crossed up again.4 Hrs ADX picking up.
The question is what kind of expectations are behind this move? Does it mean a possible risk off coming for equities? Or maybe investors just think ECB will be more dovish next week? Or maybe stg else? Anyway, as technical traders we should never really care about any reasons behind. Just do what the chart suggests us to do. Leave the rest for academics and fundamental guys.