GER40: Remains bullish amid global uncertaintyEuropean stock markets started the week with mixed results, influenced by the recent interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and China's monetary policies. The German DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 posted modest gains of 0.1%, while the French CAC 40 fell by 0.2%. The Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, a larger-than-expected cut, generated global optimism as it anticipated a boost to economic activity.
The People's Bank of China also contributed to this favorable environment by reducing its 14-day repo rate, which eased domestic monetary conditions, boosting growth. These moves, along with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle, reflect pressures on monetary authorities in Europe, with key figures such as Mário Centeno suggesting that the ECB could act sooner than expected.
In the European economic context, preliminary PMIs for September will be crucial in assessing the health of the region. Weaker than expected data would increase the likelihood of further expansionary measures by the ECB. On the corporate front, Commerzbank shares fell 4.3% after the German government confirmed that it will maintain its 12% stake, cooling speculation about a possible merger with UniCredit.
On the other hand, oil prices rose in the face of growing tension in the Middle East, which has generated concerns about supply. Both Brent and WTI registered increases of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks on energy markets.
On the technical front, the German DAX remains in a long-term uptrend. After its sharp plunge in its first week of August and subsequent sharp corrections to the upside, the index has a checkpoint (POC) around 18,491 points, with a high at 19,050.81 and key support at 18,267.81 points. The RSI at 56.99% suggests that there is still room for further upside momentum. According to Fibonacci retracements, 76.4% is slightly below the current highs, indicating that we will have to watch if the index breaks this level.
In conclusion, European markets are trading in an environment conditioned by global monetary policies and international tensions, as investors assess both the impact of rate cuts and volatility in oil prices.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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